PGA First Look: The US Open

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-16 13:40:10

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The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Editor’s Note: Announcing the RotoGrinders King of Summer, with $40,000 in added prizes between now and August! See how to join the fun!

St. Jude Classic Recap

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Daniel Berger picked up his first PGA Tour victory last week at the St. Jude Classic. Despite furious chases from Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Brooks Koepka, Berger was able to dominate the back nine on Sunday en route to a three-stroke victory. While he wasn’t my favorite cash game play last week, he was featured in the picks as my top tournament target.

That makes it three weeks in a row of picking the winner in the expert picks. If you aren’t a Premium suscriber yet, make sure to sign up before this week’s U.S. Open.

US Open Preview

Get ready for an event unlike any other this season. This is the one tournament each year where we have a mix of the best golfers in the world, the best amateurs, and the qualifiers from around the country. The U.S. Open is designed to be the toughest event of the year and if Oakmont Country Club is anywhere near as tough as it is being touted, we could see a winner that is over par. Oakmont is located in Pennsylvania and largely regarded as the toughest course in the country. Playing conditions are only going to get tougher this week, as they are prepping the course to play as tough as possible. The U.S. Open was held here back in 2007 when Angel Cabrera (+5) took home the title. Luckily, the course will be in much better shape than Chambers Bay at last season’s U.S. Open. We won’t have to turn on the TV and wonder why Jordan Spieth is putting from the dirt – those were some brown greens last year.

Oakmont

Oakmont Country Club is a Par 70 that stretches just over 7,200 yards. While this course isn’t particularly long, it features a nice mix of both short and long holes, including a 288-yard par three. There are over 200 bunkers on the course and with it playing like a links style course, there is very little water and only a few trees. The trick this week is going to be keeping the ball out of the rough. Not only is it thick, but from the videos I’ve seen, the golf ball just buries in the rough. Some golfers have said that the best you can do if you hit it in the rough is to advance it 15-20 yards down the fairway. Sounds fun, right?

With such tough scoring conditions, the finishing place for golfers is going to be a lot more important this week. Typically, golfers can score a lot of fantasy points by racking up birdies and eagles, but those will be few and far between this week. Rather than targeting birdie makers, we want to target golfers that can avoid bogeys. A par will be a good score on any hole this week. We could honestly see golfers make the cut and then have a hard time scoring any fantasy points on the weekend. A missed cut may not be a huge deal this week, which lends itself to more of a stars and scrubs lineup approach. If you can get the winner in your lineup, it may not matter (at least in cash games) if you only have three or four of your golfers make the cut.

With only one year of course history to look back on (2007), I will be placing a bigger emphasis on recent form and on U.S. Open history. The table below features each golfer’s U.S. Open history over the last four seasons.

Cut Rule: The top 60 and ties will move on after the first two rounds.

Recent Winners of this Event: Jordan Spieth (2015), Martin Kaymer (2014), Justin Rose (2013), Webb Simpson (2012), Rory McIlroy (2011)

Key Statistics

1) Strokes Gained Tee to Green
2) Strokes Gained Putting
3) Strokes Gained Around the Green
4) Total Driving w/an Emphasis on Accuracy
5) Greens in Regulation
6) Bogey Avoidance
7) Adjusted Scoring Average
8) Birdie or Better Percentage

Salaries, Odds, and U.S. Open History (2012-2015)

Golfer	Salary	S-Rank	Odds	O-Rank	+ / –	OWGR	Cuts	2015	2014	2013	2012
Jason Day	$12,100	1	7	1	0	1	4/4	9	4	2	59
Rory McIlroy	$12,000	2	7	2	0	3	3/4	9	23	41	95
Jordan Spieth	$11,900	3	8	3	0	2	3/4	1	17	113	21
Dustin Johnson	$11,000	4	14	4	0	6	3/4	2	4	55	73
Rickie Fowler	$10,700	5	25	6	-1	5	3/4	143	2	10	41
Justin Rose	$10,500	6	24	5	1	10	4/4	27	12	1	21
Adam Scott	$10,100	7	27	7	0	8	4/4	4	9	45	15
Hideki Matsuyama	$9,800	8	32	9	-1	15	3/3	18	35	10	500
Danny Willett	$9,600	9	34	11	-2	9	1/2	107	45	500	500
Bubba Watson	$9,500	10	36	12	-2	4	1/4	85	68	32	73
Phil Mickelson	$9,300	11	27	7	4	17	4/4	64	28	2	65
Henrik Stenson	$9,100	12	33	10	2	7	3/3	27	4	21	500
Sergio Garcia	$8,900	13	38	13	0	13	4/4	18	35	45	38
Branden Grace	$8,700	14	45	16	-2	12	2/3	4	500	113	51
Matt Kuchar	$8,500	15	39	14	1	18	4/4	12	12	28	27
Patrick Reed	$8,400	16	44	15	1	11	2/2	14	35	500	500
Louis Oosthuizen	$8,200	17	55	18	-1	14	2/3	2	40	500	73
Brooks Koepka	$8,100	18	48	17	1	16	2/3	18	4	500	136
Brandt Snedeker	$8,000	19	61	19	0	20	3/3	8	9	17	500
Paul Casey	$7,900	20	67	24	-4	24	3/3	39	56	45	500
Zach Johnson	$7,800	21	73	26	-5	21	3/4	72	40	95	41
Jim Furyk	$7,700	22	75	28	-6	32	3/4	42	12	137	4
Lee Westwood	$7,700	22	72	25	-3	30	3/4	50	101	15	10
Martin Kaymer	$7,600	24	63	20	4	54	3/4	76	1	59	15
Russell Knox	$7,600	24	81	29	-5	25	1/1	500	500	45	500
Charl Schwartzel	$7,500	26	66	23	3	22	3/4	7	68	14	38
J.B. Holmes	$7,400	27	74	27	0	19	2/2	27	17	500	500
Jimmy Walker	$7,400	27	84	30	-3	38	2/2	58	9	500	500
Justin Thomas	$7,400	27	101	37	-10	31	0/1	500	101	500	500
Matthew Fitzpatrick	$7,300	30	64	22	8	34	1/1	500	48	500	500
Marc Leishman	$7,300	30	85	31	-1	40	0/2	119	500	113	500
Billy Horschel	$7,300	30	85	32	-2	55	3/3	25	23	4	500
Kevin Kisner	$7,300	30	100	36	-6	26	1/2	12	136	500	500
Daniel Berger	$7,200	34	64	21	13	29	1/1	500	28	500	500
Jason Dufner	$7,200	34	95	35	-1	60	3/4	18	68	4	4
Byeong-Hun An	$7,200	34	90	33	1	27	0/1	107	500	500	500
Kevin Chappell	$7,100	37	90	34	3	37	3/3	46	500	32	10
Shane Lowry	$7,100	37	104	39	-2	41	1/2	9	68	500	500
Graeme McDowell	$7,100	37	107	40	-3	77	2/4	97	28	113	2
Webb Simpson	$7,000	40	103	38	2	72	4/4	46	45	32	1
Ryan Moore	$7,000	40	142	54	-14	51	1/3	107	48	137	500
Smylie Kaufman	$7,000	40	167	58	-18	56	0/1	500	114	500	500
Bill Haas	$6,900	43	120	42	1	35	1/4	76	35	95	73
Brendan Steele	$6,900	43	125	47	-4	86	0/1	500	500	105	500
David Lingmerth	$6,900	43	137	51	-8	49	1/1	500	500	17	500
Emiliano Grillo	$6,900	43	131	48	-5	46	0/0	500	500	500	500
Bryson DeChambeau	$6,900	43	132	50	-7	201	0/1	107	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$6,800	48	119	41	7	43	0/1	137	500	500	500
Luke Donald	$6,800	48	120	42	6	79	2/4	58	68	8	108
Rafa Cabrera Bello	$6,800	48	124	45	3	28	0/0	500	500	500	500
Keegan Bradley	$6,800	48	147	55	-7	109	3/4	27	4	105	68
Kevin Streelman	$6,800	48	221	66	-18	118	1/3	500	136	85	59
Charley Hoffman	$6,700	53	124	46	7	36	1/2	76	500	45	500
Harris English	$6,700	53	139	53	0	50	1/1	500	48	500	500
Bernd Wiesberger	$6,700	53	165	57	-4	47	0/2	85	121	500	500
Jamie Donaldson	$6,700	53	174	60	-7	64	1/3	131	129	32	500
James Hahn	$6,700	53	233	70	-17	59	0/1	500	500	500	123
Kevin Na	$6,600	58	131	49	9	33	3/3	46	12	500	29
Chris Wood	$6,600	58	123	44	14	23	0/0	500	500	500	500
Chris Kirk	$6,600	58	138	52	6	58	2/2	75	28	500	500
Patton Kizzire	$6,600	58	192	61	-3	61	0/0	500	500	500	500
Jason Kokrak	$6,600	58	260	76	-18	115	0/0	500	500	500	500
Alexander Noren	$6,600	58	210	64	-6	104	0/2	97	500	500	95
Patrick Rodgers	$6,500	64	200	62	2	161	0/0	500	500	500	500
Scott Piercy	$6,500	64	222	67	-3	67	0/2	500	500	124	95
Kiradech Aphibarnrat	$6,500	64	250	72	-8	48	0/0	500	500	500	500
Angel Cabrera	$6,500	64	258	75	-11	389	2/4	64	68	132	46
Hideto Tanihara	$6,500	64	397	88	-24	101	0/0	500	500	500	500
Soren Kjeldsen	$6,400	69	164	56	13	44	0/1	500	500	500	151
Andy Sullivan	$6,400	69	203	63	6	42	0/1	76	500	500	500
Kyung-tae Kim	$6,400	69	215	65	4	39	0/0	500	500	500	500
Spencer Levin	$6,400	69	336	86	-17	202	0/1	500	500	500	108
Ernie Els	$6,400	69	253	73	-4	286	4/4	54	35	4	9
Geoff Ogilvy	$6,400	69	321	82	-13	240	2/4	18	89	32	95
Yuta Ikeda	$6,400	69	472	92	-23	88	0/0	500	500	500	500
Retief Goosen	$6,300	76	167	58	18	135	2/3	97	45	500	10
David Toms	$6,300	76	325	84	-8	177	1/3	500	89	105	4
Thongchai Jaidee	$6,300	76	288	78	-2	52	0/3	97	68	113	500
Romain Wattel	$6,300	76	328	85	-9	165	0/0	500	500	500	500
Gregory Bourdy	$6,300	76	361	87	-11	126	0/1	500	500	500	73
Lucas Glover	$6,200	81	222	67	14	206	0/4	150	101	137	73
Robert Streb	$6,200	81	253	73	8	63	1/1	42	500	500	500
Peter Hanson	$6,200	81	281	77	4	225	0/2	500	500	74	123
Gary Stal	$6,200	81	619	101	-20	211	0/0	500	500	500	500
Anirban Lahiri	$6,100	85	222	67	18	57	0/1	85	500	500	500
Andrew Johnston	$6,100	85	240	71	14	105	0/0	500	500	500	500
Cameron Smith	$6,100	85	299	79	6	138	1/1	4	500	500	500
Jon Rahm	$6,100	85	300	80	5	766	0/0	500	500	500	500
Matteo Manassero	$6,100	85	528	98	-13	786	1/2	500	500	74	46
Yusaku Miyazato	$6,100	85	827	111	-26	139	0/0	500	500	500	500
Tom Hoge	$6,000	91	308	81	10	238	0/1	85	500	500	500
Jaco Van Zyl	$6,000	91	323	83	8	53	0/1	500	500	85	500
Maximilian Kieffer	$6,000	91	450	89	2	182	0/1	500	121	500	500
Lee Slattery	$6,000	91	489	95	-4	143	0/1	500	500	500	73
Toru Taniguchi	$6,000	91	737	107	-16	488	1/2	500	67	500	108
Darren Clarke	$6,000	91	833	112	-21	677	0/3	153	89	132	500
Soren Hansen	$6,000	91	906	118	-27		0/0	500	500	500	500
Jim Herman	$5,900	98	453	91	7	78	1/2	500	500	67	95
Sung Kang	$5,900	98	450	89	9	187	0/0	500	500	500	500
Carlos Ortiz	$5,900	98	500	97	1	425	0/0	500	500	500	500
Steven Bowditch	$5,900	98	589	100	-2	121	0/0	500	500	500	500
Rob Oppenheim	$5,900	98	883	117	-19	450	0/1	500	136	500	500
Andres Gonzales	$5,900	98	853	113	-15	484	0/0	500	500	500	500
Scottie Scheffler	$5,900	98	620	102	-4		0/0	500	500	500	500
Nick Hardy	$5,900	98	873	116	-18		1/1	52	500	500	500
Jason Allred	$5,900	98	1000	124	-26	754	0/1	85	500	500	500
Matt Marshall	$5,900	98	1300	127	-29		0/0	500	500	500	500
Gregor Main	$5,900	98	1333	128	-30		0/0	500	500	500	500
Aaron Wise	$5,800	109	475	93	16		0/0	500	500	500	500
Kevin Tway	$5,800	109	487	94	15	495	1/1	500	60	500	500
Jeff Maggert	$5,800	109	700	105	4		0/1	500	144	500	500
Miguel Tabuena	$5,800	109	797	109	0	127	0/0	500	500	500	500
Sebastian Soderberg	$5,800	109	856	114	-5	246	0/0	500	500	500	500
Derek Bard	$5,800	109	917	119	-10		0/0	500	500	500	500
Mikael Lundberg	$5,800	109	975	123	-14	668	0/0	500	500	500	500
Matthew Baldwin	$5,800	109	1194	126	-17	972	1/1	500	500	500	59
Wes Short	$5,800	109	1344	129	-20		0/0	500	500	500	500
Derek Fathauer	$5,700	118	542	99	19	306	0/0	500	500	500	500
J.J. Henry	$5,700	118	719	106	12	272	0/0	500	500	500	500
Charlie Danielson	$5,700	118	667	104	14		0/0	500	500	500	500
Denny McCarthy	$5,700	118	783	108	10		1/1	42	500	500	500
Sam Burns	$5,700	118	950	121	-3		0/0	500	500	500	500
T.J. Howe	$5,700	118	1367	130	-12		0/0	500	500	500	500
Frank Adams	$5,700	118	1583	134	-16		0/0	500	500	500	500
Justin Hicks	$5,600	125	490	96	29	621	0/2	500	500	74	73
Billy Hurley III	$5,600	125	620	102	23	589	1/2	137	48	500	500
Andrew Landry	$5,600	125	869	115	10	624	0/0	500	500	500	500
Dicky Pride	$5,600	125	1000	124	1	473	0/0	500	500	500	500
D.J. Trahan	$5,600	125	817	110	15	941	0/0	500	500	500	500
Ethan Tracy	$5,600	125	917	119	6		0/0	500	500	500	500
Andy Pope	$5,600	125	967	122	3	1190	1/1	70	500	500	500
Derek Chang	$5,500	132	1400	131	1		0/0	500	500	500	500
Austin Jordan	$5,500	132	1433	132	0		0/0	500	500	500	500
Brandon Harkins	$5,500	132	1533	133	-1		0/0	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend