PGA First Look: Valero Texas Open

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-04-03 00:16:39

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Click here to follow Notorious on Twitter.

Event Preview

Kevin Kisner managed to win the WGC-Dell Match Play despite losing his very first match to Ian Poulter. It was a week of memorable moments, both good and bad. Tiger Woods getting up and down from under the bush left-handed, Sergio Garcia getting into a heated argument with Matt Kuchar over a putt that he thought was conceded, and an impressive Saturday from Lucas Bjerregaard that took down Tiger. I had a lot of fun at the event, but it’s crazy how polarizing Tiger is. There were literally thousands of people following him every hole, yet there were parts of the course where there were maybe a dozen fans watching the likes of Rory McIlroy and Dustin Johnson.

This week we stay in Texas for the Valero Texas Open. We have a fairly weak field on tap, likely because this is the first time the event has been hosted the week before the Masters. TPC San Antonio is a Par 72 that measures 7,435 yards. Like most Texas tracks, wind is the course’s primary defense. Even though the course only features two water hazards, there is plenty of trouble you can get into off the tee. It’s a lengthy course, but you have to keep the ball in play, so strokes gained off the tee (or total driving) will be a bigger factor this week than it has in the last handful of tournaments.

With four par fives on the course, golfers will need to take advantage of these scoring opportunities. Rather than looking at birdie or better percentage, I will focus on bogey avoidance and par five scoring. The greens here are made of Bermudagrass and are overseeded with both poa and bentgrass. Typically, this course plays fast and firm and in each of the last five editions, it has ranked in the top third in difficulty on tour. It’s early in the week, but it’s worth noting that the forecast as of Monday night calls for less than 10 MPH wind on all four days of the tournament. If that holds, we can expect a little better scoring conditions than most years.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Andrew Landry (2018), Kevin Chappell (2017), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Steven Bowditch (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Par 5 Scoring
5) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)

Sports Betting Card

It was another week that was close to a winner. Of the four bets for the WGC-Dell Match Play, three made the final eight. Unfortunately, Sergio Garcia and Tiger Woods were bounced in the elite eight and then Francesco Molinari was unable to get past Kevin Kisner in the final four.

YTD: 3 wins, +19 units

Outright Bets

Sungjae Im 25/1
Jason Kokrak 28/1
Luke List 50/1
Nick Taylor 80/1
Sam Ryder 150/1

Top Five Bets

Luke List 10/1
Nick Taylor 12/1
Trey Mullinax 16/1
Dylan Frittelli 16/1

Top Ten Bets

Sam Ryder 18/1
Roberto Castro 22/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer	DK Salary	FD Salary	FDRFT Sal	OWGR	Odds	DK %	FD %	FDRFT %	Cuts	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014
Rickie Fowler	$11,700	$12,500	$17,600	8	10	0%	0%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Matt Kuchar	$11,200	$12,100	$16,700	16	16	-50%	-50%	-50%	5/5	51	40	42	15	4
Tony Finau	$10,800	$12,000	$16,700	15	15	33%	33%	0%	2/2	500	3	500	68	500
Jordan Spieth	$10,300	$11,700	$16,200	32	20	-25%	-25%	-25%	2/2	500	500	500	2	10
Sungjae Im	$10,100	$11,100	$15,700	57	26	-40%	-17%	-40%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Billy Horschel	$9,800	$11,000	$15,700	41	18	33%	43%	20%	3/5	11	110	4	3	113
Jim Furyk	$9,600	$10,900	$15,700	52	27	-14%	0%	-60%	3/3	26	500	500	58	6
Jason Kokrak	$9,400	$11,200	$15,700	69	26	25%	-20%	-20%	4/5	36	67	81	11	31
Lucas Glover	$9,300	$10,800	$15,400	81	31	0%	0%	0%	0/1	500	500	500	111	500
Byeong-Hun An	$9,200	$10,200	$15,400	54	32	0%	33%	-11%	1/1	500	40	500	500	500
Ryan Moore	$9,100	$10,100	$15,100	87	39	-18%	19%	-18%	2/2	7	18	500	500	500
Lucas Bjerregaard	$9,000	$10,600	$14,900	43	42	-33%	-45%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Abraham Ancer	$8,900	$10,300	$15,000	58	38	15%	21%	15%	2/2	58	500	42	500	500
Graeme McDowell	$8,800	$10,700	$15,000	133	41	0%	-40%	-8%	2/2	51	27	500	500	500
Jhonattan Vegas	$8,700	$10,400	$15,100	80	38	20%	8%	-9%	2/5	144	34	120	68	113
Hao-Tong Li	$8,600	$10,000	$15,000	38	41	6%	12%	-15%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Joost Luiten	$8,500	$9,700	$14,600	67	46	-12%	14%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ryan Palmer	$8,400	$9,800	$14,300	71	52	-28%	-15%	0%	4/5	94	6	4	6	56
Aaron Baddeley	$8,300	$9,600	$14,400	187	47	-5%	20%	-5%	5/5	16	5	29	20	67
Charley Hoffman	$8,200	$9,900	$14,700	88	45	15%	6%	0%	5/5	64	40	1	11	11
Denny McCarthy	$8,100	$9,500	$14,200	160	57	-19%	11%	0%	1/1	20	500	500	500	500
Luke List	$8,000	$10,500	$14,400	67	45	18%	-50%	5%	1/3	81	92	29	500	500
J.B. Holmes	$8,000	$9,900	$14,400	45	50	0%	-22%	-16%	2/3	112	500	13	500	64
Si Woo Kim	$7,900	$9,700	$14,400	61	49	13%	5%	-11%	2/3	45	22	93	500	500
Russell Henley	$7,900	$9,400	$13,900	120	65	-21%	3%	-4%	0/1	500	500	93	500	500
Daniel Berger	$7,800	$9,800	$14,300	76	53	8%	-20%	-4%	0/1	500	500	500	85	500
Jimmy Walker	$7,800	$9,700	$14,200	103	57	0%	-18%	-4%	4/5	4	13	140	1	16
Sung Kang	$7,700	$9,500	$13,900	135	63	0%	0%	0%	2/3	94	6	42	500	500
Justin Harding	$7,700	$7,000	$13,700	48	71	-14%	74%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Joaquin Niemann	$7,600	$9,600	$14,000	162	65	3%	-16%	-7%	1/1	6	500	500	500	500
Andrew Putnam	$7,600	$9,600	$13,900	55	63	10%	-8%	4%	2/2	8	500	500	72	500
Joel Dahmen	$7,500	$9,300	$13,800	137	65	3%	3%	0%	1/2	75	92	500	500	500
Austin Cook	$7,500	$9,200	$13,500	128	72	-6%	0%	3%	1/1	30	500	500	500	500
Ollie Schniederjans	$7,500	$9,200	$13,600	215	75	-16%	-9%	-9%	2/2	36	18	500	500	500
Trey Mullinax	$7,400	$9,400	$13,500	238	74	-3%	-20%	-3%	1/2	2	130	500	500	500
Bud Cauley	$7,400	$9,000	$13,500	184	74	0%	10%	0%	1/2	500	10	500	500	105
JT Poston	$7,400	$8,900	$13,400	206	78	-11%	7%	5%	2/2	30	27	500	500	500
Chesson Hadley	$7,300	$9,100	$13,500	82	78	-5%	-11%	-14%	3/4	20	500	125	4	56
Dylan Frittelli	$7,300	$9,300	$13,500	91	71	13%	-3%	6%	1/1	20	500	500	500	500
Luke Donald	$7,300	$9,100	$13,500	568	82	-8%	-14%	-17%	1/2	500	117	13	500	500
Brian Harman	$7,300	$8,800	$13,000	78	89	-13%	7%	4%	2/3	500	500	51	111	16
Nick Taylor	$7,200	$8,700	$13,700	241	75	10%	24%	-19%	2/3	81	22	21	500	500
Matt Jones	$7,200	$8,900	$13,200	223	85	0%	0%	0%	3/4	123	13	60	26	500
Andrew Landry	$7,200	$8,600	$13,000	121	89	-2%	20%	4%	2/2	1	500	51	500	500
Martin Kaymer	$7,200	$8,800	$13,100	194	91	-10%	0%	-7%	0/2	112	500	500	133	500
Brendan Steele	$7,200	$8,900	$12,500	158	125	-64%	-64%	-13%	4/5	30	62	13	8	105
Wyndham Clark	$7,100	$8,700	$13,000	245	95	-2%	4%	-7%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Chris Kirk	$7,100	$8,700	$13,100	174	90	4%	10%	-5%	3/4	8	92	13	8	500
Sam Burns	$7,100	$8,600	$13,000	110	94	0%	13%	-4%	0/1	500	500	500	137	500
Chris Stroud	$7,100	$8,500	$12,600	178	108	-19%	3%	-6%	1/3	500	77	72	116	500
Mac Hughes	$7,100	$8,600	$13,000	257	99	-4%	9%	-9%	0/2	94	117	500	500	500
Scott Stallings	$7,000	$8,700	$12,800	129	100	4%	0%	0%	1/3	500	110	13	100	500
Brian Gay	$7,000	$8,500	$12,500	127	102	2%	12%	16%	2/4	81	6	133	500	56
Kevin Streelman	$7,000	$8,300	$12,400	197	114	-17%	9%	8%	3/3	8	53	37	500	500
Kramer Hickok	$7,000	$8,500	$12,600	186	104	0%	10%	2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Martin Laird	$7,000	$8,800	$12,600	266	115	-19%	-35%	-17%	3/4	11	18	500	50	95
Kyle Stanley	$7,000	$9,100	$12,600	47	106	-2%	-47%	0%	1/2	500	500	60	500	95
Nick Watney	$6,900	$8,600	$12,600	171	116	-9%	-17%	-19%	1/3	20	77	500	111	500
Rory Sabbatini	$6,900	$8,800	$12,600	213	109	2%	-24%	-8%	0/2	500	135	93	500	500
Scottie Scheffler	$6,900	$8,100	$12,400	459	128	-26%	1%	-11%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jonathan Byrd	$6,900	$9,000	$11,200	364	220	-79%	-167%	7%	0/1	81	500	500	500	500
Peter Uihlein	$6,900	$8,400	$12,700	105	112	-2%	5%	-16%	0/2	112	500	500	500	113
Kelly Kraft	$6,900	$8,400	$12,700	173	112	-2%	5%	-16%	1/2	500	117	72	500	500
Harris English	$6,900	$8,200	$12,400	323	126	-22%	-1%	-8%	2/2	36	500	500	30	500
Vaughn Taylor	$6,800	$8,000	$12,200	210	126	-8%	11%	3%	1/1	16	500	500	500	500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee	$6,800	$8,400	$12,600	272	122	-3%	-8%	-26%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Beau Hossler	$6,800	$9,000	$12,400	99	107	17%	-38%	18%	1/2	51	144	500	500	500
Kevin Tway	$6,800	$8,100	$12,300	97	127	-11%	3%	-1%	2/3	36	3	500	500	119
Ernie Els	$6,800	$8,500	$12,600	320	119	2%	-10%	-21%	1/3	30	500	81	500	81
C.T. Pan	$6,800	$8,900	$12,500	109	110	11%	-38%	5%	0/2	145	117	500	500	500
Jonas Blixt	$6,800	$8,200	$12,100	303	145	-26%	-17%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
D.J. Trahan	$6,700	$8,000	$12,000	497	163	-22%	-11%	-6%	1/1	500	500	72	500	500
Ryan Armour	$6,700	$8,400	$12,400	100	108	24%	11%	17%	0/2	123	92	500	500	500
Adam Schenk	$6,700	$7,900	$12,200	294	139	-8%	6%	-8%	1/1	58	500	500	500	500
Julian Etulain	$6,700	$8,200	$12,200	292	144	-13%	-16%	-13%	1/1	500	75	500	500	500
Danny Lee	$6,700	$7,900	$12,100	113	130	-3%	11%	4%	1/3	51	130	500	500	113
Scott Langley	$6,700	$7,800	$11,800	230	167	-26%	-5%	-2%	2/3	500	500	21	58	134
Curtis Luck	$6,700		$12,200	412	140	-10%		-10%	0/1	500	77	500	500	500
Padraig Harrington	$6,700	$8,300	$12,500	225	123	6%	-1%	-11%	1/2	500	500	25	500	95
Harold Varner	$6,600	$8,300	$12,100	167	122	18%	1%	14%	2/3	131	40	9	500	500
Brian Stuard	$6,600	$7,900	$12,100	228	144	0%	4%	-4%	3/4	36	130	55	64	500
J.J. Spaun	$6,600	$7,900	$12,000	142	138	5%	8%	8%	2/2	26	49	500	500	500
Benjamin Silverman	$6,600	$8,000	$11,900	305	153	-5%	-6%	2%	1/1	45	500	500	500	500
Fabian Gomez	$6,600		$12,500	485	121	19%		-7%	1/2	81	500	500	44	500
Cameron Davis	$6,600	$7,500	$11,700	172	188	-23%	1%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Sepp Straka	$6,600	$8,100	$12,100	341	147	-4%	-12%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Grayson Murray	$6,600	$7,700	$12,200	329	136	6%	17%	-4%	1/1	16	500	500	500	500
Carlos Ortiz	$6,500	$7,800	$11,900	281	153	5%	3%	2%	1/2	500	500	81	15	500
Peter Malnati	$6,500	$7,600	$11,900	285	172	-5%	3%	-7%	2/4	64	144	13	500	119
Roger Sloan	$6,500	$8,200	$12,100	262	138	14%	-9%	1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Richy Werenski	$6,500	$7,600	$11,600	189	175	-6%	2%	6%	1/2	11	110	500	500	500
Ryan Blaum	$6,500	$7,600	$11,800	277	177	-7%	1%	-6%	0/1	500	110	500	500	500
Tom Hoge	$6,500	$7,400	$11,400	296	222	-19%	-1%	-3%	2/4	131	53	9	76	500
Tyler Duncan	$6,500	$7,000	$10,900	453	268	-34%	4%	2%	0/1	94	500	500	500	500
Seamus Power	$6,500	$7,300	$11,300	405	245	-24%	0%	-3%	1/2	145	58	500	500	500
Roberto Castro	$6,400	$7,700	$11,800	289	162	10%	4%	3%	1/2	500	152	42	500	500
Hank Lebioda	$6,400	$7,100	$11,300	451	253	-19%	3%	-8%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Adam Long	$6,400	$8,000	$12,000	108	162	10%	-9%	-4%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Shawn Stefani	$6,400	$7,500	$11,800	309	163	8%	11%	1%	3/4	123	49	29	26	500
Sebastian Munoz	$6,400	$7,500	$11,700	275	184	0%	3%	-2%	1/1	500	27	500	500	500
Max Homa	$6,400	$7,500	$11,400	439	218	-7%	-4%	-1%	1/2	500	77	500	56	500
Martin Trainer	$6,400	$7,600	$11,500	119	217	-6%	-7%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Roberto Diaz	$6,400	$7,400	$11,500	571	212	-5%	3%	-1%	0/1	81	500	500	500	500
Davis Love	$6,400	$8,400	$11,300	465	248	-17%	-81%	-6%	1/1	500	500	500	44	500
Sam Ryder	$6,300	$8,100	$11,800	166	165	14%	-22%	-1%	1/1	36	500	500	500	500
Scott Brown	$6,300	$7,700	$11,700	255	181	10%	-6%	-1%	2/3	139	500	500	56	36
Hudson Swafford	$6,300	$7,800	$11,700	254	195	6%	-14%	-5%	2/4	75	500	125	35	134
Adam Svensson	$6,300	$7,200	$11,300	408	238	-2%	5%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Josh Teater	$6,300	$7,300	$11,300	425	238	-1%	3%	0%	1/1	500	500	500	500	36
Sam Saunders	$6,300	$7,700	$11,700	271	187	8%	-8%	-3%	0/1	500	117	500	500	500
George McNeill	$6,300	$7,200	$11,400	831	203	5%	12%	2%	2/2	500	500	72	20	500
Jim Knous	$6,300	$7,000	$10,700	505	307	-19%	-2%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Seth Reeves	$6,300	$7,400	$11,000	491	270	-13%	-14%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Chase Wright	$6,200	$7,000	$10,700	310	336	-16%	-7%	-6%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Hunter Mahan	$6,200	$7,500	$11,200	363	257	-1%	-16%	-3%	1/3	45	110	93	500	500
Alex Prugh	$6,200	$7,100	$10,800	515	273	-7%	-4%	1%	1/3	500	500	109	120	72
J.J. Henry	$6,200	$7,000	$10,600	644	272	-6%	2%	7%	1/5	145	22	81	85	105
Fredrik Jacobson	$6,200	$7,300	$11,300		245	4%	0%	-3%	4/4	500	53	80	50	16
John Senden	$6,200	$7,700	$10,600	867	315	-11%	-41%	2%	2/5	79	77	93	76	42
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez	$6,200	$7,100	$10,700	446	323	-12%	-9%	-2%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kristoffer Ventura	$6,200	$7,000	$10,500	1199	367	-18%	-9%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Kyle Jones	$6,200	$7,000	$10,400	315	377	-18%	-10%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brandon Harkins	$6,100	$7,200	$11,200	280	250	8%	0%	-1%	1/1	75	500	500	500	500
Robert Streb	$6,100	$7,100	$11,200	249	260	6%	1%	-4%	1/2	500	92	500	500	72
Anders Albertson	$6,100	$7,100	$10,900	267	283	-1%	-6%	-3%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Brandon Hagy	$6,100	$7,000	$11,000	594	278	0%	0%	-4%	1/2	500	34	500	85	500
Brady Schnell	$6,100	$7,400	$11,400	385	246	10%	-7%	-9%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Ted Potter	$6,100	$7,300	$10,600	132	310	-2%	-16%	3%	0/1	500	500	500	500	95
Kenny Perry	$6,100	$7,000	$10,200		427	-12%	-12%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Jim Herman	$6,100	$7,000	$10,700	914	333	-6%	-6%	-4%	2/3	500	18	500	85	76
Smylie Kaufman	$6,100	$6,000	$10,300	954	403	-11%	1%	0%	1/1	500	37	500	500	500
Cameron Tringale	$6,000	$8,100	$11,200	636	240	18%	-46%	4%	3/5	94	144	60	40	46
Stephan Jaeger	$6,000	$7,200	$11,200	306	261	11%	-4%	-4%	0/1	94	500	500	500	500
K.J. Choi	$6,000	$7,000	$10,800	834	333	2%	-6%	-6%	3/5	45	117	51	15	105
D.A. Points	$6,000	$7,100	$10,400	725	377	-2%	-15%	0%	1/3	500	117	60	116	500
Morgan Hoffmann	$6,000	$7,000	$10,700	924	327	2%	-5%	-3%	0/1	500	139	500	500	500
Cody Gribble	$6,000	$7,000	$10,500	764	343	-1%	-8%	0%	0/2	145	130	500	500	500
Rod Pampling	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100	966	583	-5%	-13%	0%	1/2	68	500	93	500	500
Chip McDaniel	$6,000	$7,400	$10,900	883	271	9%	-15%	0%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500
Rufus Brijalba	$6,000	$7,000	$10,100		714	-6%	-14%	-1%	0/0	500	500	500	500	500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend