PGA First Look: Valspar Championship

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

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Event Preview

What a week at TPC Sawgrass. There was a point on Sunday where eight or nine golfers were within three shots of the lead. If it weren’t for a late water ball from Tommy Fleetwood on the 17th, yours truly could have taken down the big $44 tournament on DraftKings. When it comes to mass multi-entry, you can’t expect to win, you just have to be happy you have a sweat. Rory McIlroy ended up finishing strong and beating Jim Furyk by a single stroke to take home his first win at the fifth major. It was good to finally see him put it together in the final round after receiving so much criticism over the last few events.

The PGA Tour stays in Florida this week for the Valspar Championship. The change in schedule brings some new faces to the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort. This is one of the few venues where shorter hitters win on a regular basis, so we usually don’t see the likes of Dustin Johnson, Jon Rahm, and Jason Day. This is a rare Par 71 that features four par fives and five par threes. The par fives are score-able, while the par threes are difficult. For the first time in a long time, I will actually be taking a look at par three scoring.

The fairways are incredibly thin (24 yards wide on average) and tree-lined. With little room to work with off the tee and a number of dog legs, distance is not a premium this week. If you look at driving stats from here in the past, the average drive is about 12 yards shorter than tour average, while driving accuracy is right on par with the tour average. In other words, golfers club down off the tee here and still have a tough time finding these fairways. The greens are fairly fast and made of TifEagle Bermuda, which can be tricky to read.

I feel like I’ve said this a lot recently, but approach play and putting are what will determine the winner of this tournament. Golfers will have to survive the par threes and the difficult Snake Pit (holes 16-18). This course has played as the sixth most difficult on tour in two of the last three years and we typically see the winner around 10-under par. Winds don’t look too bad in the early forecast, but that can always change, especially with this course being so close to the ocean. The goal this week is to find great iron players that can avoid the big numbers.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event:Paul Casey (2018), Adam Hadwin (2017), Charl Schwartzel (2016), Jordan Spieth (2015), John Senden (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach x2
2) Bogey Avoidance
3) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green
5) Par 3 Scoring

Sports Betting Card

YTD: 3 wins, +29 units

We had a nice betting week at The PLAYERS Championship. Rory McIlroy finally came through on a Sunday and while he didn’t have the best odds, we will gladly take a 12/1 winner. Jim Furyk also added a nice top ten finish at 10/1. In total, we bet 11 units and got 22 back to bring the season total to +29 units.

Outright Bets

Webb Simpson 18/1
Henrik Stenson 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Kevin Kisner 45/1
Jason Kokrak 45/1
Russell Knox 60/1

Top Five Bets

Jason Kokrak 8/1
Russell Knox 12/1

Top Ten Bets

Bud Cauley 10/1
Roberto Castro 16/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal OWGR Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Dustin Johnson $11,500 $12,600 $19,900 1 5 0% 0% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jon Rahm $11,000 $11,700 $17,500 10 10 0% 33% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jason Day $10,700 $11,800 $17,500 12 10 33% 0% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Webb Simpson $10,400 $10,700 $16,100 20 18 -25% 29% 0% 2/4 8 41 80 500 96
Sergio Garcia $10,100 $11,300 $16,600 26 16 20% 0% 0% 1/1 4 500 500 500 500
Gary Woodland $9,900 $10,600 $15,800 23 22 -33% 0% -33% 3/5 79 58 42 99 8
Paul Casey $9,700 $10,900 $15,800 15 21 14% -20% 0% 1/2 1 500 500 500 96
Patrick Reed $9,500 $10,800 $15,800 16 22 13% -17% -17% 4/4 2 38 7 2 500
Keegan Bradley $9,400 $10,100 $14,900 33 37 -22% 8% 0% 2/3 31 58 71 500 500
Louis Oosthuizen $9,300 $10,300 $14,900 27 38 -20% -9% -9% 2/4 16 500 7 99 96
Jim Furyk $9,200 $10,000 $15,300 57 33 18% 36% 0% 4/4 7 41 500 40 20
Henrik Stenson $9,100 $10,400 $15,000 39 37 17% 0% 0% 3/4 107 7 11 4 500
Lucas Glover $9,000 $10,500 $14,900 84 40 0% -44% -18% 3/5 74 18 99 24 96
Bubba Watson $8,900 $9,900 $14,500 17 46 -21% -6% -6% 0/1 500 74 500 500 500
Rafael Cabrera-Bello $8,800 $10,000 $14,500 31 44 0% -7% 6% 1/1 500 500 500 44 500
Ryan Moore $8,700 $8,900 $14,200 82 53 -25% 43% 0% 3/4 92 18 3 5 500
Jason Kokrak $8,600 $9,700 $14,600 90 45 6% 20% -14% 4/5 8 58 80 7 14
Kevin Kisner $8,500 $9,600 $14,600 50 44 22% 36% 0% 1/2 500 500 500 60 85
Brandt Snedeker $8,400 $9,800 $14,500 46 47 0% -6% -19% 3/3 31 500 500 53 58
Adam Hadwin $8,300 $9,800 $14,000 68 58 -5% -17% 5% 3/4 12 1 89 71 500
Charl Schwartzel $8,200 $10,100 $14,000 98 61 -10% -92% -5% 3/3 49 6 1 500 500
Russell Knox $8,100 $9,000 $14,100 62 58 0% 31% -5% 4/5 16 74 56 33 25
Branden Grace $8,000 $9,700 $13,900 42 64 -4% -20% 0% 2/3 8 500 37 500 96
Tyrrell Hatton $7,900 $9,200 $14,500 37 47 25% 33% -13% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
JT Poston $7,900 $8,300 $13,200 201 85 -17% 58% 0% 1/1 500 14 500 500 500
Kevin Na $7,800 $8,600 $13,000 60 89 -15% 33% 0% 3/4 500 87 22 10 2
Russell Henley $7,800 $8,700 $13,200 117 85 -12% 29% -4% 1/2 500 9 71 500 500
Sungjae Im $7,700 $9,600 $13,900 72 66 11% -14% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ollie Schniederjans $7,700 $8,100 $13,500 205 81 4% 64% -4% 1/3 49 70 500 91 500
Zach Johnson $7,600 $9,900 $13,400 85 80 13% -63% 4% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Michael Thompson $7,600 $9,500 $13,000 131 91 -3% -29% -3% 1/3 500 129 500 72 58
Graeme McDowell $7,500 $9,200 $12,400 262 118 -28% -52% -3% 2/3 40 14 71 500 500
Chesson Hadley $7,500 $8,600 $12,600 77 107 -6% 24% 0% 3/4 120 500 69 44 14
Chris Kirk $7,500 $8,400 $12,500 168 122 -31% 29% -17% 2/3 49 103 42 500 500
Steve Stricker $7,400 $9,200 $12,500 324 113 -6% -37% -3% 2/3 12 74 7 500 500
Joel Dahmen $7,400 $7,700 $12,100 160 136 -31% 52% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kevin Streelman $7,400 $8,400 $12,200 186 135 -29% 24% -5% 3/5 92 18 126 40 38
Chez Reavie $7,300 $9,300 $12,700 56 102 13% -27% -3% 2/4 79 27 22 123 500
Nick Taylor $7,300 $8,000 $12,500 252 117 -5% 49% -11% 2/4 114 62 89 24 500
Danny Lee $7,300 $8,500 $12,000 108 146 -32% 6% 0% 2/4 128 22 500 7 96
Sam Ryder $7,300 $8,600 $11,900 158 153 -39% -18% -2% 1/1 68 500 500 500 500
Bud Cauley $7,200 $9,100 $12,400 176 114 10% -27% 5% 1/2 128 58 500 500 500
Nick Watney $7,200 $8,700 $12,200 167 137 -14% -17% -12% 3/3 59 14 500 53 500
Sung Kang $7,200 $7,900 $12,600 148 108 17% 60% -3% 2/3 73 87 22 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $7,200 $8,800 $12,500 164 116 7% -3% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Beau Hossler $7,200 $9,400 $12,400 99 111 14% -44% 10% 0/2 92 70 500 500 500
Roberto Castro $7,100 $8,600 $11,800 288 172 -34% -40% -15% 0/3 500 500 71 118 119
Trey Mullinax $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 227 124 9% 4% 9% 1/2 8 103 500 500 500
Brian Gay $7,100 $8,800 $11,800 128 159 -17% -45% 0% 1/4 92 70 134 500 77
Denny McCarthy $7,100 $8,100 $11,800 183 163 -23% 22% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $7,100 $9,000 $12,100 92 145 -4% -53% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Burns $7,100 $8,500 $11,800 118 172 -34% -19% -15% 1/1 12 500 500 500 500
Austin Cook $7,000 $8,300 $11,800 151 162 -8% 14% -4% 1/1 40 500 500 500 500
C.T. Pan $7,000 $9,000 $11,900 113 154 -2% -69% -4% 0/2 128 103 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $7,000 $9,100 $11,400 94 211 -45% -157% -4% 3/5 31 27 129 60 96
Charley Hoffman $7,000 $8,800 $11,800 86 167 -13% -58% -9% 2/5 120 103 11 137 25
Roger Sloan $7,000 $8,000 $12,200 259 136 11% 41% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,900 $12,700 74 97 40% 9% 0% 1/4 500 103 71 91 25
Adam Schenk $6,900 $8,700 $11,800 290 162 5% -37% -2% 1/1 59 500 500 500 500
Scott Stallings $6,900 $8,400 $11,600 159 196 -20% -20% -8% 2/5 31 68 71 118 119
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $8,400 $11,400 238 203 -27% -27% -1% 2/4 79 38 56 72 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,900 $8,600 $12,200 216 134 25% 2% -2% 3/4 5 500 42 72 70
Wyndham Clark $6,900 $8,600 $11,900 249 147 12% -16% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Armour $6,900 $7,800 $11,400 116 216 -37% 11% -9% 1/1 40 500 500 500 500
Jason Dufner $6,900 $8,900 $11,700 187 179 -10% -86% -2% 4/5 79 11 22 24 14
Vaughn Taylor $6,800 $7,600 $11,400 220 200 -11% 28% 1% 0/1 500 500 71 500 500
Carlos Ortiz $6,800 $8,000 $11,700 277 183 0% 16% -3% 2/2 500 500 56 68 500
Cameron Davis $6,800 $8,400 $11,400 157 221 -26% -41% -12% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Patrick Rodgers $6,800 $8,500 $12,000 140 146 24% 6% 0% 1/3 59 130 89 500 500
Richy Werenski $6,800 $8,300 $11,200 181 238 -39% -39% -2% 0/2 138 103 500 500 500
Harris English $6,800 $8,200 $11,600 301 193 -5% 3% -5% 3/5 120 27 80 10 38
Sean O’Hair $6,800 $8,200 $11,400 214 222 -27% -18% -14% 3/3 12 500 500 2 74
Danny Willett $6,700 $8,400 $11,800 80 168 16% -3% -11% 1/1 500 500 22 500 500
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,700 $7,600 $11,800 276 163 19% 42% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $6,700 $8,500 $11,600 162 168 16% -15% 8% 1/3 78 87 99 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,700 $8,100 $11,300 193 233 -18% -16% -1% 2/2 31 65 500 500 500
Matt Jones $6,700 $8,600 $11,400 263 212 -8% -76% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $6,700 $8,700 $11,500 297 193 5% -68% 1% 4/4 49 41 2 500 14
Brendan Steele $6,700 $8,500 $11,600 144 187 8% -26% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Robert Streb $6,700 $8,000 $10,800 231 293 -42% -32% 0% 0/2 120 115 500 500 500
Patton Kizzire $6,600 $8,500 $11,500 96 196 12% -34% -1% 1/2 500 87 33 500 500
Adam Svensson $6,600 $7,700 $10,600 397 311 -33% -14% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Luke Donald $6,600 $8,300 $11,400 919 212 2% -20% -7% 4/5 64 74 22 53 4
Tom Hoge $6,600 $7,200 $11,200 279 246 -19% 17% -7% 0/2 92 500 71 500 500
Andrew Landry $6,600 $7,300 $11,200 121 237 -10% 21% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brandon Harkins $6,600 $7,800 $10,600 274 317 -35% -20% 1% 0/1 79 500 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $6,600 $8,100 $11,100 191 245 -16% -27% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,600 $10,600 414 350 -43% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,500 $7,700 $11,000 285 258 -12% -5% -1% 0/3 128 70 80 500 500
Scott Langley $6,500 $8,200 $11,400 224 205 15% -7% -3% 2/2 500 500 500 63 3
Cameron Tringale $6,500 $7,600 $11,000 587 258 -13% 0% -2% 2/4 500 87 126 17 25
Dylan Meyer $6,500 $7,200 $10,200 591 429 -42% -9% 2% 1/1 74 500 500 500 500
Kevin Tway $6,500 $8,000 $11,500 97 201 17% 6% -6% 0/1 92 500 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $6,500 $8,300 $11,300 136 211 13% -17% 9% 0/1 500 115 500 500 500
John Huh $6,500 $7,400 $10,700 368 308 -20% 3% 0% 3/5 107 9 22 33 96
Stephan Jaeger $6,500 $7,500 $10,600 314 330 -25% -5% -1% 1/1 49 500 500 500 500
Brian Stuard $6,400 $8,000 $11,200 245 243 4% -18% -3% 1/4 79 38 500 81 115
Sebastian Munoz $6,400 $7,900 $11,100 271 245 2% -8% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Peter Uihlein $6,400 $8,000 $11,300 103 234 9% -11% -4% 0/1 500 500 500 500 119
Martin Trainer $6,400 $8,100 $11,300 119 237 8% -20% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kramer Hickok $6,400 $7,200 $11,500 196 191 30% 41% 3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brice Garnett $6,400 $7,400 $11,000 127 247 0% 12% 2% 1/2 31 500 500 123 500
Hunter Mahan $6,400 $8,000 $10,800 356 283 -6% -30% 1% 2/2 500 56 53 500 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,400 $7,000 $10,600 878 339 -16% 12% -3% 2/4 500 52 99 112 25
Julian Etulain $6,300 $7,500 $11,000 322 247 8% 8% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Brown $6,300 $8,000 $11,400 246 218 22% -4% -11% 2/5 64 133 7 72 85
Max Homa $6,300 $7,800 $11,200 434 237 13% 0% -1% 0/2 500 500 500 112 96
Ryan Blaum $6,300 $7,700 $11,100 273 233 17% 8% 8% 2/2 16 41 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,300 $7,500 $11,100 270 255 6% 7% -4% 3/4 49 93 22 24 500
Chase Wright $6,300 $7,300 $10,500 296 358 -11% -4% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,300 $7,000 $10,600 421 337 -7% 13% -2% 0/1 120 500 500 500 500
Seamus Power $6,300 $7,000 $10,800 394 307 -1% 17% -2% 1/2 120 27 500 500 500
Joey Garber $6,300 $11,300 418 400 -17% -45% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,200 $8,400 $11,000 234 263 11% -73% -3% 0/1 500 500 111 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,200 $7,800 $11,400 331 228 25% 7% -15% 2/4 500 22 22 118 85
Sepp Straka $6,200 $7,400 $10,700 365 295 8% 5% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Knous $6,200 $7,100 $10,500 526 363 -4% 2% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $6,200 $7,100 $10,200 582 -19% -12% -5% 1/5 92 70 111 17 119
Brandon Hagy $6,200 $7,600 $10,600 568 339 1% -12% -3% 1/1 500 500 69 500 500
John Senden $6,200 $7,100 $10,500 866 361 -4% 2% 0% 1/4 500 93 71 81 1
Grayson Murray $6,200 $7,200 $10,400 329 384 -5% -3% 2% 0/2 92 125 500 500 500
Ryan Vermeer $6,200 $7,000 $10,000 1061 -22% -9% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Hank Lebioda $6,100 $7,700 $10,700 463 325 11% -16% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Fredrik Jacobson $6,100 $7,100 $10,600 342 7% 5% -5% 2/4 500 103 119 47 20
Ted Potter $6,100 $7,900 $10,400 130 384 2% -36% 2% 1/2 79 500 500 500 20
Mac Hughes $6,100 $7,600 $10,500 436 408 -1% -23% -5% 0/1 92 500 500 500 500
K.J. Choi $6,100 $7,100 $10,300 821 461 -6% -7% -4% 2/4 500 103 62 112 44
Kenny Perry $6,100 $7,100 $10,200 597 -11% -13% -6% 1/1 500 500 500 47 500
D.A. Points $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 690 581 -10% -5% -5% 1/3 114 500 500 47 96
Kyle Jones $6,100 $10,300 299 429 -3% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Perry $6,100 $7,000 $10,000 1500 -14% -9% -1% 0/5 138 135 89 129 96
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,300 $10,300 387 416 5% -11% 0% 3/3 40 14 500 53 500
Michael Kim $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 313 526 -2% -5% -4% 1/3 79 52 133 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,000 $7,100 $10,200 742 447 2% -7% 0% 0/1 500 70 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 893 461 2% -2% -1% 1/2 500 3 99 500 500
Austin Connelly $6,000 $7,700 $10,200 497 500 -1% -40% -3% 0/1 500 500 126 500 500
Seth Reeves $6,000 $7,500 $10,200 522 466 0% -25% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,000 $7,200 $10,400 65 384 9% -3% 2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 946 621 -5% -8% 0% 2/3 59 41 500 81 500
Akshay Bhatia $6,000 $7,000 $10,300 443 3% 0% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious