PGA First Look: Waste Management Phoenix Open

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Click here to follow Notorious on Twitter.

Event Preview

Justin Rose took control of the Farmers Insurance on Friday and never looked back. It was a star-studded leaderboard, which made for incredibly television on the weekend. While I love Torrey Pines, no course can compare to TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. If you aren’t familiar with this event, it’s basically the Happy Gilmore version of a PGA Tour event. I’ve gone to this tournament each of the last two years and can confirm all of the rumors. The 16th hole is a par three that is completely surrounded with a stadium. There are countless memories of this hole including Tiger Woods hitting a hole in one in his younger days, James Hahn doing the Gangnam Style dance, and the crowd chanting “Spieth has a mangina.” More than 600,000 people attended the event last year. It’s an incredible event and I highly recommend going if you have the opportunity. I will not be attending this year, as I will be in Nashville visiting the RotoGrinders crew.

TPC Scottsdale is a Par 71 that measures 7,266 yards. All par fives measure at least 550 yards, but all three are reachable by the field with a good drive. The course had renovations in 2014 (added length and resurfacing of the green) and it has played a little harder since then. Over the last three seasons, it has ranked 32nd, 33rd, and 20th in difficulty on tour. The course features one of the best finishes in all of golf. Hole number 15 is a risk/reward par five, 16 is the crazy stadium par three, 17 is a drivable par four with water in play, and 18 is a difficult par four with water down the left side of the hole. This is a stretch where you can go four under or four over par, which creates a must-watch finish on Saturday and Sunday.

If you compare strokes gained data from this event to the average PGA Tour event, there is a slight emphasis on off the tee. Strong approach play matters at all tournaments, as does putting. One statistic that I will not worry about this week is around the green. Scrambling is significantly easier than the average PGA Tour course. We’ve seen strong ball strikers fare well here in the past (Hideki Matsuyama, Bubba Watson, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, etc.), so I will be focusing most of my attention on strokes gained off the tee and strokes gained approach. Golfers will need to take advantage of the par fives, so par five scoring is featured. The greens here are now made of bermudagrass, if you like to look at putting splits. And finally, I will be looking at bogey avoidance, as big numbers are fairly common here.

As far as the weather goes, it looks calm all week. It’s only Tuesday, but all four days currently have winds forecasted at less than 10 MPH. We could have a little rain in the mix, which would soften the course and make it a little easier. The final note for the week is the size of the field. With only 132 golfers set to tee it up this week, a higher percentage of golfers will make it through the cut. You can make an argument to build riskier or safer cash game lineups. With a higher percentage of the field making the cut, we can argue that we should be chasing upside. The counter-argument is that the importance of getting 6-of-6 through the cut goes up, so a safer lineup is the better approach.

Good luck this week!

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Gary Woodland (2018), Hideki Matsuyama (2017 & 2016), Brooks Koepka (2015), Kevin Stadler (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Strokes Gained Putting (Emphasis on Bermuda)
5) Bogey Avoidance

Betting Card (Updated)

Wins: 1
+24 units

We only had one horse in the race on the weekend and ultimately, a bad Saturday round from Hideki Matsuyama took him out of contention. Given his track record at this course, I’m going right back to Hideki this week.

Hideki Matsuyama: 12/1
Rickie Fowler: 20/1
Daniel Berger: 50/1
Chez Reavie: 50/1
Emiliano Grillo: 66/1
Ryan Palmer: 80/1

Everything you Need to Know to Dominate PGA DFS

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2013-2017)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Salary OWGR Odds DK Odds FD Odds FDRFT Odds Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Jon Rahm $11,500 $12,500 $18,600 6 7 0% 0% 0% 3/3 11 16 500 5 500
Justin Thomas $11,000 $12,100 $18,000 4 9 0% 0% 0% 2/4 17 76 76 17 500
Hideki Matsuyama $10,700 $11,800 $17,400 26 12 0% 0% 0% 4/5 500 1 1 2 4
Xander Schauffele $10,100 $11,200 $16,700 7 16 0% 20% 0% 1/1 17 500 500 500 500
Gary Woodland $9,900 $11,300 $16,600 24 17 0% -25% 0% 3/5 1 100 33 77 37
Webb Simpson $9,700 $10,800 $16,100 19 19 0% 33% 14% 3/4 81 2 14 500 10
Tony Finau $9,500 $10,900 $16,000 11 20 -14% 0% 0% 1/4 73 91 84 22 500
Rickie Fowler $9,400 $11,000 $16,300 14 19 13% 0% -17% 4/5 11 4 2 46 85
Phil Mickelson $9,300 $11,100 $15,800 29 22 0% -50% 0% 4/5 5 16 11 94 42
Matt Kuchar $9,200 $10,700 $15,700 23 26 0% 0% 0% 3/3 5 9 500 30 500
Cameron Smith $9,100 $10,700 $15,600 28 29 0% -10% 0% 2/3 48 42 97 500 500
Adam Hadwin $9,000 $10,600 $15,300 57 36 0% 0% 0% 3/4 43 12 17 120 500
Bubba Watson $8,900 $10,200 $15,000 18 41 -8% 18% 0% 4/5 40 91 14 2 2
Billy Horschel $8,800 $9,800 $15,100 38 38 7% 43% 0% 4/5 43 24 24 30 85
Chez Reavie $8,700 $10,300 $14,600 56 47 -13% -6% -6% 1/4 2 76 70 77 500
Byeong-Hun An $8,600 $9,200 $14,700 52 45 6% 63% 0% 2/2 23 6 500 500 500
Andrew Putnam $8,500 $10,500 $14,400 46 52 -12% -46% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alexander Noren $8,400 $9,900 $14,300 21 56 -11% 5% 0% 1/1 21 500 500 500 500
Cameron Champ $8,300 $9,400 $14,500 81 47 16% 54% 6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Daniel Berger $8,200 $10,400 $14,500 64 51 10% -29% -6% 4/4 11 7 58 10 500
Brandt Snedeker $8,100 $10,400 $14,300 49 56 0% -50% -5% 4/4 23 500 33 10 61
Luke List $8,000 $9,400 $13,900 62 65 -18% 26% 0% 1/3 26 91 70 500 500
Branden Grace $8,000 $9,600 53 80 -41% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyrrell Hatton $7,900 $9,600 $14,100 31 61 4% 21% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Austin Cook $7,900 $9,700 $13,400 124 80 -33% -23% -10% 1/1 31 500 500 500 500
Zach Johnson $7,800 $10,000 $14,000 71 64 4% -32% -4% 4/4 57 12 14 10 500
Keegan Bradley $7,800 $9,800 $14,000 33 57 15% 4% 8% 3/5 43 76 24 17 112
Abraham Ancer $7,700 $9,200 $13,800 58 69 4% 33% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ryan Palmer $7,700 $9,300 $13,700 72 74 0% 24% 0% 3/5 81 113 24 2 48
Emiliano Grillo $7,600 $9,800 $14,100 48 63 20% -4% -9% 3/3 57 63 45 500 500
J.B. Holmes $7,600 $10,000 $13,400 99 83 -13% -79% -17% 4/5 96 24 6 66 58
Martin Laird $7,600 $9,900 $13,400 224 80 -10% -57% -14% 5/5 9 7 41 5 19
Kyle Stanley $7,500 $9,100 $12,900 37 88 -21% 9% 5% 2/5 96 36 45 77 130
Talor Gooch $7,500 $8,700 153 87 -15% 36% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Si Woo Kim $7,500 $8,900 $13,200 67 88 -18% 25% -8% 2/3 62 121 67 500 500
Scott Piercy $7,400 $9,200 $13,400 141 80 17% 25% -3% 3/5 81 73 45 103 15
Russell Knox $7,400 $8,800 $13,000 65 94 -17% 26% -8% 1/3 73 106 500 15 500
Kevin Kisner $7,400 $9,100 $12,900 45 101 -31% -7% -12% 0/2 500 500 76 77 500
Brendan Steele $7,400 $10,100 $13,200 125 86 -3% -106% -3% 5/5 3 16 17 26 6
Patton Kizzire $7,400 $9,600 $13,400 88 85 0% -24% -24% 3/3 31 57 60 500 500
Jason Kokrak $7,300 $8,600 $13,000 123 94 -10% 27% -15% 3/5 31 76 84 40 15
Sungjae Im $7,300 $9,000 $13,400 92 84 15% 26% -21% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
JT Poston $7,300 $8,700 $12,400 251 128 -29% 10% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Charl Schwartzel $7,300 $8,300 $12,200 93 142 -41% 18% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Martin Kaymer $7,300 $7,900 $13,000 166 94 -7% 48% -13% 1/1 500 500 500 500 53
Lucas Glover $7,200 $9,700 $13,300 127 77 37% -12% 17% 3/4 43 36 500 53 107
C.T. Pan $7,200 $8,600 $12,600 101 125 -13% 16% -11% 1/2 62 113 500 500 500
Ryan Moore $7,200 $9,700 $12,600 87 106 -4% -85% -2% 4/5 81 61 11 17 6
Kevin Na $7,200 $9,500 $12,900 50 94 9% -31% 0% 5/5 48 16 24 26 19
Joaquin Niemann $7,200 $8,900 $12,600 162 120 -9% 4% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Harold Varner $7,200 $8,900 $12,200 157 135 -22% -8% -6% 2/3 38 68 112 500 500
Kevin Tway $7,100 $8,900 $12,900 84 95 12% 12% -10% 1/2 57 500 500 500 85
Beau Hossler $7,100 $9,500 $13,100 94 93 21% -28% -8% 1/1 17 500 500 500 500
J.J. Spaun $7,100 $8,600 $12,800 117 110 6% 21% -7% 1/2 500 4 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $7,100 $9,100 $12,100 70 149 -23% -45% -12% 2/3 5 500 60 120 500
Bill Haas $7,100 $9,200 $12,100 239 155 -37% -78% -25% 3/3 26 500 500 76 34
Sam Burns $7,100 $8,400 $12,100 107 143 -17% 10% -7% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Keith Mitchell $7,000 $8,000 $12,100 151 137 2% 29% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Richy Werenski $7,000 $8,700 $11,800 173 178 -43% -41% -6% 0/1 81 500 500 500 500
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $7,000 $8,100 $12,200 42 142 0% 25% -9% 1/1 500 500 500 500 67
Robert Streb $7,000 $7,800 $11,700 181 188 -55% 1% -8% 2/4 81 100 37 10 500
Sung Kang $7,000 $8,200 $12,100 190 143 -5% 18% -7% 1/2 96 12 500 500 500
Andrew Landry $7,000 $8,000 $12,200 105 133 7% 33% -2% 0/1 81 500 500 500 500
Brian Harman $7,000 $8,900 $11,900 63 171 -38% -54% -11% 3/4 500 24 58 66 107
Russell Henley $6,900 $9,500 $12,000 104 161 -11% -125% -6% 2/5 73 16 76 59 85
Ryan Armour $6,900 $7,900 $11,800 111 168 -20% 7% 0% 0/1 73 500 500 500 500
Charley Hoffman $6,900 $9,300 $12,100 66 149 3% -70% -11% 5/5 26 24 51 53 61
Bud Cauley $6,900 $9,000 $12,500 206 121 22% -9% -2% 1/2 81 47 500 500 500
Harris English $6,900 $8,400 $12,100 325 154 -6% -1% -21% 4/5 73 57 3 40 9
Kevin Streelman $6,900 $8,300 $11,700 202 181 -32% -21% -4% 3/5 40 76 70 30 53
Brian Stuard $6,900 $8,000 $11,700 241 201 -45% -18% -13% 4/4 65 16 500 10 53
Joel Dahmen $6,800 $9,000 $12,300 165 133 25% -15% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Watney $6,800 $8,800 $12,100 154 151 7% -18% -18% 2/3 26 500 500 94 29
Peter Uihlein $6,800 $7,900 $12,100 89 143 17% 29% -5% 1/1 52 500 500 500 500
Aaron Baddeley $6,800 $7,900 $12,000 263 154 4% 18% -1% 3/5 26 76 84 17 48
Jhonattan Vegas $6,800 $7,800 $11,800 140 189 -26% 0% -17% 2/2 500 500 500 46 48
Jimmy Walker $6,800 $8,500 $12,100 91 149 10% 2% -14% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,800 $8,100 $11,900 103 165 -4% 3% -4% 0/1 500 500 500 500 99
Danny Lee $6,700 $8,100 $12,100 98 150 16% 14% -16% 1/5 73 127 4 108 99
Stewart Cink $6,700 $9,000 $11,700 86 170 0% -68% 5% 1/1 500 500 500 59 500
Brian Gay $6,700 $9,300 $11,900 146 166 4% -105% -6% 4/4 9 47 64 500 61
Patrick Rodgers $6,700 $8,200 $11,700 155 197 -18% -26% -12% 1/3 96 118 17 500 500
Trey Mullinax $6,700 $7,600 $11,900 244 166 4% 24% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $6,700 $7,500 $11,300 311 230 -24% 6% -1% 3/4 52 106 65 59 500
Ollie Schniederjans $6,700 $8,500 $11,900 213 171 -1% -21% -11% 2/2 3 24 500 500 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,600 $8,400 $11,800 259 176 5% -21% -5% 2/2 11 52 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $6,600 $8,600 $11,900 176 164 14% -19% -3% 4/4 11 34 37 500 76
Scott Stallings $6,600 $7,600 $11,800 224 180 1% 15% -9% 1/4 23 500 84 115 99
Hunter Mahan $6,600 $7,900 $11,400 381 225 -13% -15% -2% 3/5 106 63 84 30 4
Jonas Blixt $6,600 $7,300 $10,800 405 323 -24% 3% -5% 2/5 110 52 97 103 34
Chase Wright $6,600 $7,000 $10,500 249 366 -30% 7% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Steve Stricker $6,500 $9,000 $12,000 268 161 22% -53% -6% 2/3 31 42 70 500 500
Sam Ryder $6,500 $8,200 $12,000 148 153 26% 8% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Denny McCarthy $6,500 $7,800 $11,700 187 193 0% -1% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rory Sabbatini $6,500 $7,900 $11,500 212 215 -3% -13% -2% 2/3 31 500 500 22 112
John Huh $6,500 $7,700 $11,700 328 188 3% 7% -7% 3/5 38 34 6 108 85
Carlos Ortiz $6,500 $7,100 $10,800 361 300 -12% 10% -1% 1/2 500 500 84 53 500
Sean O’Hair $6,500 $7,700 $11,500 198 220 -4% 0% -3% 1/2 500 47 76 500 500
Bronson Burgoon $6,400 $7,800 $10,900 109 290 -2% -11% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
James Hahn $6,400 $8,300 $11,700 175 179 15% -18% -1% 3/5 11 106 17 59 99
Brice Garnett $6,400 $7,800 $11,700 116 182 12% 4% -5% 0/1 500 500 500 94 500
Tom Hoge $6,400 $7,100 $10,700 283 374 -14% 2% -7% 0/1 81 500 500 500 500
Adam Long $6,400 $7,700 $11,400 135 235 0% -3% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Stroud $6,400 $7,000 $10,700 300 345 -10% 9% -3% 1/4 81 500 70 94 19
Grayson Murray $6,400 $7,500 $10,700 282 348 -11% -6% -4% 2/2 70 36 500 500 500
Anders Albertson $6,300 $7,900 $11,700 228 183 17% -5% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Mac Hughes $6,300 $7,600 $10,900 376 297 4% -2% -3% 0/2 73 106 500 500 500
Adam Schenk $6,300 $7,500 $11,000 302 270 6% 4% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,300 $7,000 $10,300 714 510 -14% -1% -4% 0/2 500 76 97 500 500
Fredrik Jacobson $6,300 $7,100 $10,200 608 -19% -10% -3% 1/1 500 500 500 7 500
Morgan Hoffmann $6,300 $7,300 $10,400 660 384 -9% -5% -4% 3/5 121 36 84 53 15
Kelly Kraft $6,200 $7,400 $10,600 223 361 1% -4% -1% 0/1 119 500 500 500 500
Brandon Harkins $6,200 $7,400 $10,800 279 318 5% 1% -4% 0/1 73 500 500 500 500
Michael Kim $6,200 $7,200 $10,700 280 324 4% 4% -2% 2/3 81 24 45 500 500
Kenny Perry $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 540 -10% -3% -6% 0/1 500 500 500 77 500
Colt Knost $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 595 -11% -3% -2% 2/2 62 500 24 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,100 $8,000 $10,800 277 308 10% -31% -3% 0/1 114 500 500 500 500
Brandon Hagy $6,100 $7,600 $10,900 488 300 12% -3% -4% 0/1 500 106 500 500 500
Seamus Power $6,100 $7,100 $10,300 388 489 -2% -3% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cody Gribble $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 707 538 -4% -2% -5% 1/2 70 91 500 500 500
Satoshi Kodaira $6,100 $7,200 $10,400 51 375 3% -2% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Michael Hopper $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 1113 -9% -6% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alex Cejka $6,000 $7,100 $10,300 354 448 4% -3% -2% 1/3 500 74 123 500 500
Whee Kim $6,000 $7,700 $10,400 147 403 5% -22% -4% 1/2 96 500 56 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,000 $7,400 $10,300 423 489 3% -11% -3% 0/1 117 500 500 500 500
K.J. Choi $6,000 $7,200 $10,200 853 600 -2% -12% -2% 3/5 96 91 17 22 42
Matthew Wolff $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 379 7% 4% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside of the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious