PGA First Look: Wells Fargo Championship

The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.

Event Preview

After a nice break, it’s time to get back to the grind. We have a stacked field this week for the Wells Fargo Championship, then the PGA Tour heads to Texas for the Byron Nelson, and then we have the year’s second major. It should be an extremely fun stretch of golf. I didn’t pay much attention to the Zurich Classic, but congratulations to Jon Rahm and Ryan Palmer for winning the team event. On the European Tour, Jorge Campillo finally broke through with a win at the Trophee Hassan II.

This week we head to Charlotte and the famous Quail Hollow Golf Club. The course had renovations in 2016 to prepare it for the 2017 PGA Championship. The course is a Par 71 that now measures over 7,500 yards. It is a typical Carolina course that features tree-lined fairways, many dog legs, and tough site lines. Often times, you are better off missing the fairway if you are on the right side of the hole. This is an incredibly difficult course, especially after the re-design. Last year, it was the fifth hardest course of the 51 that were played on tour.

I typically don’t pay a ton of attention to raw distance off the tee, but that may change this week. Given the length of the course and the importance of scoring on the par fives, this definitely sets up as more of a bomber’s track. All three par fives are score-able and there are two short par fours that golfers need to take advantage of if they want to be in contention this week. Basically, the other 13 holes might all play over par. Golfers need to take advantage of the easier holes and then hold on for dear life.

The course features one of the best three-hole finishes on tour, as ‘The Green Mile’ is truly a test of nerves. Whether you are sweating the cut line or sweating your golfers on Sunday, everything will come down to the final three holes. As far as the greens, they were changed from MiniVerde Bermudagrass to Champion Bermudagrass in the re-design. The greens are tough to hit on average, which brings scrambling (or strokes gained around the green) into the fold. Length, par five scoring, scrambling, and avoiding bogeys is a great recipe for success here.

Cut Rule: Top 70 and ties move on after the first two rounds. The MDF rule is in effect if more than 78 golfers make the initial cut.

Recent Winners of this Event: Jason Day (2018), Justin Thomas (2017 – PGA Championship), James Hahn (2016), Rory McIlroy (2015), J.B. Holmes (2014)

Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)

1) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
2) Strokes Gained Approach
3) Bogey Avoidance
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green
5) Par 5 Scoring

Sports Betting Card

C.T. Pan was a bit of a surprise winner at the RBC Heritage. While I’ve always been a fan of his game, his form didn’t suggest any high end finish on the horizon. But, that’s how golf goes sometimes. When it clicks, it clicks. We missed our five outright bets, but we hit Michael Thompson for a top 20 bet at six to one, so we only ended up down three units for the week.

YTD: 4 wins, +15 units

Outright Bets

Tony Finau 20/1
Gary Woodland 30/1
Jason Kokrak 35/1
Byeong-Hun An 55/1

Top 20 Bets

Michael Thompson 4/1
Roberto Castro 6/1
Harold Varner 8/1
Nate Lashley 16/1

Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)

Golfer DK Salary FD Salary FDRFT Sal OWGR Odds DK % FD % FDRFT % Cuts 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014
Rory McIlroy $11,800 $12,500 $18,800 4 6 0% 0% 0% 5/5 16 22 4 1 8
Jason Day $11,000 $11,800 $17,700 14 10 0% 33% 0% 2/2 1 9 500 500 500
Rickie Fowler $10,600 $11,600 $17,500 10 11 0% 25% 0% 4/4 21 5 4 500 38
Justin Rose $10,300 $12,100 $17,500 2 12 0% -100% -33% 2/3 500 76 3 500 5
Hideki Matsuyama $10,100 $11,000 $16,100 28 19 0% 44% 0% 5/5 76 5 11 20 38
Sergio Garcia $9,900 $10,300 $16,100 29 21 -17% 53% -40% 0/1 500 95 500 500 500
Webb Simpson $9,700 $10,800 $16,100 20 19 29% 55% 0% 4/5 21 33 121 2 38
Paul Casey $9,500 $11,300 $15,900 13 25 -13% -50% 0% 3/3 5 13 41 500 500
Tony Finau $9,300 $11,400 $16,000 15 22 11% -60% 0% 4/4 21 44 28 16 500
Phil Mickelson $9,100 $11,200 $15,800 23 26 0% -43% 0% 4/5 5 118 4 4 11
Gary Woodland $9,000 $11,100 $15,700 24 28 0% -38% 0% 4/5 103 22 24 4 18
Henrik Stenson $8,900 $10,500 $15,500 40 31 0% 8% 0% 2/3 500 13 85 58 500
Patrick Reed $8,800 $10,900 $15,200 19 37 -8% -40% 0% 4/4 8 2 28 58 500
Jason Kokrak $8,700 $10,000 $15,300 62 35 7% 28% 0% 2/5 88 33 105 93 23
Sungjae Im $8,600 $9,900 $14,600 59 49 -13% 11% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Lucas Glover $8,500 $10,400 $14,700 84 41 6% -7% 0% 3/5 116 33 8 28 115
Charles Howell $8,400 $10,100 $14,700 48 44 6% 6% -7% 4/5 21 73 105 38 18
Byeong Hun An $8,300 $9,800 $14,300 56 55 -6% 10% -6% 2/3 63 28 105 500 500
Jhonattan Vegas $8,200 $9,500 $13,800 81 66 -11% 22% 0% 3/5 42 95 53 76 74
Aaron Wise $8,100 $8,500 $14,000 64 54 10% 68% 10% 1/1 2 500 500 500 500
Keegan Bradley $8,000 $10,600 $14,100 34 61 5% -67% -5% 2/2 76 33 500 500 500
Luke List $8,000 $9,500 $13,600 71 76 -10% 15% -5% 1/3 9 84 85 500 500
Zach Johnson $7,900 $9,400 $13,600 87 79 -4% 17% -9% 2/2 500 48 500 500 14
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $10,200 $13,600 47 73 4% -38% 0% 4/5 42 28 53 82 1
Keith Mitchell $7,800 $9,600 $13,400 58 84 -4% -4% -4% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Sung Kang $7,800 $9,400 $12,900 134 93 -20% -3% -3% 1/3 116 44 85 500 500
Kevin Streelman $7,700 $8,800 $12,900 126 91 -7% 33% 0% 2/4 134 500 78 9 14
Rory Sabbatini $7,700 $8,800 $13,100 185 90 0% 37% 0% 2/3 27 500 500 120 8
Daniel Berger $7,700 $9,300 $13,400 86 80 7% 19% 0% 3/4 55 84 17 28 500
Roberto Castro $7,600 $8,200 $12,400 294 125 -47% 37% -2% 2/2 500 500 2 500 8
Joel Dahmen $7,600 $8,700 $13,100 125 90 10% 43% 0% 1/1 16 500 500 500 500
Nick Watney $7,600 $8,600 $12,600 179 120 -33% 23% -14% 1/3 2 500 500 109 101
Trey Mullinax $7,500 $8,900 $12,700 220 115 -12% 5% -12% 0/1 116 500 500 500 500
JT Poston $7,500 $8,600 $12,700 168 102 6% 40% 6% 0/1 103 500 500 500 500
Kyle Stanley $7,500 $9,300 $12,500 49 115 -15% -23% 7% 2/4 13 112 85 500 60
Jimmy Walker $7,500 $9,200 $12,600 103 123 -24% -24% -17% 0/2 500 95 500 500 101
Michael Thompson $7,400 $9,200 $12,600 105 109 8% -3% 3% 3/4 42 500 147 28 11
Chez Reavie $7,400 $9,900 $12,800 63 104 14% -68% -3% 1/1 500 22 500 500 500
Dylan Frittelli $7,400 $9,600 $12,400 95 130 -22% -80% -5% 1/2 103 63 500 500 500
Joaquin Niemann $7,400 $9,700 $12,600 152 123 -14% -83% -20% 0/1 88 500 500 500 500
Wyndham Clark $7,400 $8,600 $12,100 228 163 -57% -12% -16% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Stallings $7,300 $8,400 $12,200 124 139 -14% 21% -2% 1/4 142 500 53 93 115
Russell Henley $7,300 $8,700 $12,200 137 124 -2% 9% 9% 1/3 103 71 500 500 139
Danny Lee $7,300 $8,500 $12,300 111 114 14% 37% 20% 3/5 116 125 9 13 50
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $7,300 $8,900 $12,600 240 117 7% 0% -11% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nick Taylor $7,300 $8,400 $12,100 245 156 -29% 11% -8% 0/3 103 500 105 93 500
Scott Brown $7,300 $7,800 $12,000 223 161 -36% 35% -2% 3/5 116 13 105 13 30
Matt Jones $7,200 $8,900 $12,500 221 130 6% -15% -10% 1/3 500 500 121 28 139
Adam Hadwin $7,200 $9,800 $12,800 76 105 31% -57% -6% 2/4 16 129 61 109 500
Sam Burns $7,200 $8,500 $12,600 102 113 27% 39% 0% 1/1 55 500 500 500 500
Cameron Champ $7,200 $9,700 $12,100 96 144 -6% -122% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Brendan Steele $7,200 $9,000 $11,800 171 181 -35% -76% -3% 3/4 500 95 14 9 30
Matt Every $7,200 $12,100 460 161 -17% -12% 0/2 139 500 146 500 500
Curtis Luck $7,200 $7,900 $11,700 435 202 -52% 10% -9% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bud Cauley $7,100 $8,900 $12,000 190 158 0% -41% 2% 3/4 67 33 121 500 38
Mac Hughes $7,100 $7,700 $11,900 258 173 -13% 34% -2% 1/3 59 95 147 500 500
Ryan Armour $7,100 $7,800 $11,600 109 201 -31% 18% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Pat Perez $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 98 143 11% 6% 2% 3/3 500 28 500 20 44
Kramer Hickok $7,100 $8,300 $11,700 198 194 -24% -3% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Bill Haas $7,100 $8,000 $11,700 295 198 -25% 9% -3% 3/5 88 54 85 68 44
Seamus Power $7,100 $7,200 $12,000 291 170 -9% 50% -7% 1/1 27 500 500 500 500
Chesson Hadley $7,000 $8,400 $12,200 89 143 19% 18% -6% 3/4 16 500 11 20 146
Harold Varner $7,000 $7,900 $11,700 167 188 -6% 19% 1% 2/3 55 500 24 500 128
Denny McCarthy $7,000 $8,800 $12,300 157 138 24% -9% -4% 0/1 127 500 500 500 500
Ollie Schniederjans $7,000 $8,700 $12,000 219 155 15% -13% 5% 1/2 34 500 78 500 500
Peter Uihlein $7,000 $8,600 $11,900 133 172 2% -17% 0% 1/2 5 76 500 500 500
Fabian Gomez $7,000 $7,900 $11,100 458 288 -56% -20% -8% 2/3 84 500 9 145 500
Cameron Tringale $7,000 $8,200 $11,800 562 189 -8% 4% -6% 3/3 27 500 41 500 60
Martin Laird $7,000 $8,000 $12,100 274 151 16% 32% -4% 3/4 500 84 65 55 30
Carlos Ortiz $6,900 $7,800 $11,300 287 228 -10% 13% 5% 2/2 500 500 65 19 500
Beau Hossler $6,900 $8,800 $11,800 108 173 11% -44% 2% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Jonas Blixt $6,900 $8,100 $11,100 309 266 -26% -21% 2% 1/5 27 106 105 109 74
Chris Stroud $6,900 $7,600 $11,700 187 200 0% 29% -4% 3/5 67 9 35 109 88
David Hearn $6,900 $8,000 $11,700 480 200 0% 8% -4% 1/3 500 500 85 82 44
Hudson Swafford $6,900 $7,600 $10,900 252 303 -41% -1% -1% 0/3 88 84 500 500 128
Brandon Harkins $6,900 $7,200 $11,000 300 281 -36% 21% 0% 1/1 63 500 500 500 500
Padraig Harrington $6,900 $7,700 $11,400 247 245 -20% 11% -9% 0/4 500 106 134 109 128
Hank Lebioda $6,800 $7,900 $11,500 405 209 5% 9% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chris Kirk $6,800 $8,400 $11,400 184 228 1% -26% 0% 1/2 500 133 500 500 30
Ernie Els $6,800 $8,300 $11,100 323 278 -19% -41% -3% 2/4 88 95 69 500 44
Danny Willett $6,800 $7,900 $11,300 82 244 -6% -2% -2% 0/1 500 112 500 500 500
Kelly Kraft $6,800 $8,000 $11,500 183 220 4% 1% -1% 1/3 127 58 121 500 500
Robert Streb $6,800 $7,400 $11,400 261 238 -4% 24% -5% 5/5 42 22 28 4 23
Brian Harman $6,800 $9,000 $12,000 91 167 24% -59% -5% 4/5 74 13 35 129 65
Richy Werenski $6,800 $7,500 $11,100 200 280 -21% 7% -4% 0/1 103 500 500 500 500
Peter Malnati $6,700 $7,900 $11,800 257 179 26% 21% -2% 1/3 34 500 121 500 101
Adam Schenk $6,700 $8,300 $11,400 267 225 12% -15% 1% 0/1 142 500 500 500 500
Johnson Wagner $6,700 $9,100 $11,300 316 231 7% -129% 1% 3/4 13 500 28 82 68
Jonathan Byrd $6,700 $9,100 $11,300 365 247 1% -143% -5% 1/4 103 500 151 120 14
Harris English $6,700 $7,600 $11,500 307 230 8% 19% -7% 1/1 500 500 17 500 500
Jason Dufner $6,700 $8,400 $11,200 230 266 -2% -44% 0% 2/2 42 58 500 500 500
Ryan Blaum $6,700 $8,100 $11,200 293 266 -2% -21% 0% 1/1 84 500 500 500 500
Whee Kim $6,700 $7,100 $10,500 201 363 -33% 11% -1% 0/3 127 500 134 93 500
Vaughn Taylor $6,600 $8,500 $11,300 214 241 13% -44% -1% 2/2 42 500 35 500 500
Julian Etulain $6,600 $8,300 $10,700 310 344 -14% -62% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sam Saunders $6,600 $7,300 $11,000 282 269 3% 21% 4% 2/3 9 500 85 47 500
Max Homa $6,600 $7,400 $10,900 417 316 -6% 7% -2% 1/1 500 500 500 76 500
Ben Crane $6,600 $10,500 406 366 -24% -4% 0/2 500 500 121 500 101
Martin Trainer $6,600 $7,500 $10,500 123 359 -19% -11% 1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Ted Potter $6,600 $7,300 $10,800 155 334 -12% 9% -4% 2/2 27 500 500 500 50
Stephan Jaeger $6,600 $7,200 $10,700 330 350 -16% 9% -6% 0/1 116 500 500 500 500
Stewart Cink $6,500 $8,700 $11,300 107 248 16% -83% -6% 3/3 72 500 500 20 23
Josh Teater $6,500 $7,200 $10,600 451 347 -6% 10% 2% 1/1 500 500 500 500 57
Shawn Stefani $6,500 $7,400 $11,300 331 248 15% 19% -7% 3/4 42 500 134 9 44
Sepp Straka $6,500 $8,100 $10,800 348 325 0% -40% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Dominic Bozzelli $6,500 $7,800 $11,100 317 277 10% -5% -2% 0/1 103 500 500 500 500
Billy Hurley $6,500 $10,500 1079 359 -10% 1% 2/3 81 500 500 38 74
Benjamin Silverman $6,500 $7,400 $10,700 335 350 -7% -2% -6% 0/1 88 500 500 500 500
Brandon Hagy $6,500 $7,000 $10,400 651 400 -19% 8% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Cameron Davis $6,400 $7,800 $10,600 186 353 -1% -26% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Anirban Lahiri $6,400 $7,500 $10,900 213 283 13% 5% 2% 2/3 134 75 41 500 500
Jim Knous $6,400 $7,000 $10,500 509 363 -4% 14% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Scott Langley $6,400 $7,700 $11,000 236 294 11% -4% -3% 2/3 500 500 24 82 38
Alex Prugh $6,400 $7,100 $10,700 540 328 6% 20% 0% 0/1 500 500 500 148 500
Brice Garnett $6,400 $7,800 $10,700 160 322 8% -15% 2% 1/3 75 500 500 82 128
Fredrik Jacobson $6,400 $7,100 $10,400 434 -15% 1% -7% 1/1 500 500 500 79 500
Brady Schnell $6,400 $7,300 $10,400 403 403 -11% -6% -3% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Adam Svensson $6,300 $7,200 $10,600 407 364 2% 3% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,300 $7,300 $10,300 432 494 -18% -21% -4% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roberto Diaz $6,300 $7,300 $10,400 591 406 -4% -7% -3% 0/1 145 500 500 500 500
Seth Reeves $6,300 $7,400 $10,400 503 394 -2% -12% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Kyle Jones $6,300 $7,000 $10,400 350 450 -9% 2% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sang-Moon Bae $6,300 $8,700 $10,400 354 455 -11% -179% -10% 2/2 500 500 500 58 38
Cody Gribble $6,300 $7,000 $10,300 828 469 -13% -1% 1% 1/1 500 63 500 500 500
John Chin $6,300 $7,400 $10,200 555 600 -23% -36% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Nate Lashley $6,200 $7,900 $10,400 415 469 -6% -64% -12% 0/1 116 500 500 500 500
Adam Long $6,200 $8,000 $10,700 116 328 18% -36% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Roger Sloan $6,200 $7,700 $10,700 270 334 17% -12% -2% 0/1 500 500 500 109 500
Doc Redman $6,200 $10,200 609 -16% -2% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Tyler Duncan $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 474 475 -7% -2% -1% 1/1 84 500 500 500 500
Nicholas Lindheim $6,200 $7,500 $10,400 444 419 2% -23% -4% 0/1 134 500 500 500 500
Jim Herman $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 998 531 -13% -8% -7% 3/4 500 44 121 13 73
Chris Thompson $6,200 $7,200 $10,400 380 438 -2% -7% -8% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Alvaro Ortiz $6,200 $7,000 492 -10% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Sebastian Munoz $6,100 $7,500 $10,400 290 378 12% -18% 0% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
J.J. Henry $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 669 516 -5% -8% -6% 1/3 84 500 500 151 146
Anders Albertson $6,100 $7,100 $10,400 277 428 7% 2% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Chase Wright $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 336 481 -1% -3% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Broc Everett $6,100 $10,200 732 -12% -6% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
John Senden $6,100 $7,500 $10,300 894 500 -4% -39% -4% 1/1 500 500 17 500 500
Chad Collins $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 1191 609 -8% -11% -2% 1/3 500 500 85 68 88
Brendon Todd $6,100 $10,500 375 13% -4% 0/2 500 500 85 500 101
Will MacKenzie $6,100 $7,400 $10,200 729 -11% -40% -5% 1/3 500 500 85 20 115
Tom Lovelady $6,000 $8,200 $10,400 433 456 8% -89% -11% 1/1 34 500 500 500 500
Wes Roach $6,000 $7,400 $10,300 521 488 5% -28% -2% 1/1 500 500 500 500 23
Tom Hoge $6,000 $7,200 $10,400 315 453 10% -8% -9% 2/3 76 500 41 120 500
Colt Knost $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 625 -3% -12% -3% 2/2 500 500 41 66 500
Joey Garber $6,000 $7,200 $10,300 445 506 2% -18% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Rod Pampling $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 1043 703 -3% -13% -4% 0/2 103 133 500 500 500
Steve Scott $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 1375 -6% -15% -1% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Zack Sucher $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 1088 425 13% 5% -5% 0/0 500 500 500 500 500
Smylie Kaufman $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 1172 597 0% -9% -1% 0/1 150 500 500 500 500

Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.

Legend

Term Description
Site % Odds The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better.
OWGR Official World Golf Ranking
Cuts Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons.
2013 – 2017 Columns Course history at this event in the last five seasons.
Cover Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious