PGA First Look: WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
The PGA First Look is complete with a course preview, odds, salaries, Official World Golf Rankings, and course history.
If you’re looking for more in-depth golf betting picks strategy, check out our breakdown of the course and the Betting Picks for the 2019 FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
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Event Preview
Even though it was a brutal week of DFS for yours truly, I still love the Open Championship. There is nothing like setting an alarm for every hour to wake up and check on your golf scores. Northern Ireland put on a tremendous event and I’m excited to hear that Royal Portrush will likely be added to the Open rota moving forward. Shane Lowry slipped through the cracks for many last week, even though he had plenty of experience on links courses, he had three top 10s in his five events leading up to the Open, and he is from Ireland. While I would have liked a more competitive Sunday, Lowry was clearly the best golfer all week. It was an amazing moment when he was walking to the green on the 18th hole. My only complaint about the tournament is that we didn’t have any way to track golfers outside of their raw scores on each hole. The R&A needs to figure this out before next year.
We now head to Memphis for a new event, but a familiar venue on the PGA Tour. TPC Southwind will host the very first WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational. I don’t know about you, but I think they could have done without the Invitational part of the name. If you are looking for course history, this event used to be the FedEx St. Jude Classic. The course is a Par 70 that measures 7,238 yards. It features two reachable par fives and seven par fours that measure at least 450 yards. The raw yardage number is a big misleading thanks to the fact that there are only two par fives and that they are both short. We will see plenty of long irons hit this week.
TPC Southwind is not a pushover by any means and we could see the lowest winning score in the last couple of months. The winner here is typically in the low teens, which is a nice change of pace from the birdie fests that we’ve seen recently. Seven of the last eight winners at this course have led the field in strokes gained tee to green. This seems fairly obvious, but it’s typically not the case at easier events like the John Deere Classic that turn into a putting contest. The greens and fairways are both tough to hit in Memphis, which gives a significant boost to the elite ball strikers. The fairways are made of zoysia grass (which seem to be an acquired taste) and the greens are made of champion bermuda grass.
When we look at past data from the course, most of the strokes gained here are on approach followed closely by off the tee. This plays into the ball striking narrative that I was talking about above. You’ll need to scramble often given the fact that these greens are tough to hit, but the scrambling success rate is 3% higher here than your average PGA Tour event. With so many par fours on the scorecard, I don’t mind looking at par four scoring, especially from the 450-500 yard range. I’m not putting a ton of emphasis on course history this week, as it hasn’t been all that predictive at TPC Southwind other than Daniel Berger winning here in back-to-back years.
There are only 64 golfers in the field this week, which means we don’t have a cut. This should change our approach to DFS. All golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds, which places a bigger emphasis on scoring than cut making. Furthermore, you aren’t going to cash with six golfers finishing outside the top 10. You will need the winner and a few guys in contention if you want to take a run at some of these top-heavy tournaments across the industry. The way I see it, we should be price inelastic this week. Rather than starting your lineups with the best point-per-dollar options, start your lineups with the golfer(s) that you think can win the tournament and build from there.
Cut Rule: There is no cut this week.
Recent Winners of this Event: Dustin Johnson (2018), Daniel Berger (2017 & 2016), Fabian Gomez (2015), Ben Crane (2014)
Key Statistics (In Order of Importance)
1) Strokes Gained Approach
2) Strokes Gained Off the Tee
3) Birdie or Better %
4) Strokes Gained Around the Green
5) Bogey Avoidance
Sports Betting Picks
Betting on golf can be incredibly frustrating at times, but it’s a nice way to complement your DFS lineups. You can use the two as a hedge, especially when it comes to highly owned golfers in DFS. As for last week, we hit Shane Lowry top five at 12/1 and Lee Westwood top 20 at 4.5/1. I wanted to bet Westwood top five, but never pulled the trigger. With five events left on the schedule, it looks like we’ll need an outright win to end the season with a profit. With only 64 golfers in the field, this could be a great week for top five and top 20 sleepers.
YTD: 5 wins, -13.5 units
Outright Bets
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Webb Simpson 33/1
Patrick Reed 40/1
Billy Horschel 55/1
Top 5 Bets
Paul Casey 7/1
Webb Simpson 7/1
Patrick Reed 9/1
Billy Horschel 11/1
Jim Furyk 18/1
Top 20 Bets
Jim Furyk 3/1
Keith Mitchell 4/1
Max Homa 6/1
Corey Conners 6/1
Salaries, Odds, and Course History (2014-2018)
| Golfer | DK Salary | FD Salary | Odds | DK % | FD % | Cuts | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Koepka | $11,600 | $11,900 | 10 | -200% | -50% | 5/5 | 30 | 37 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| Dustin Johnson | $11,400 | $12,000 | 9 | 50% | 0% | 3/3 | 1 | 500 | 5 | 500 | 24 |
| Rory McIlroy | $11,100 | $11,700 | 10 | 33% | 33% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Thomas | $10,700 | $11,100 | 14 | -25% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jon Rahm | $10,400 | $11,200 | 12 | 20% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | $10,200 | $10,700 | 22 | -50% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $9,800 | $10,900 | 19 | 14% | 14% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Rose | $9,500 | $11,000 | 20 | 13% | -17% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Xander Schauffele | $9,300 | $10,800 | 21 | 11% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 52 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,100 | $10,600 | 26 | 0% | 0% | 1/1 | 26 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Kuchar | $9,000 | $10,000 | 32 | -64% | -13% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $8,900 | $10,500 | 27 | 8% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | $8,800 | $10,400 | 29 | 0% | -8% | 1/2 | 500 | 87 | 500 | 45 | 500 |
| Adam Scott | $8,700 | $10,300 | 28 | 14% | 8% | 1/1 | 500 | 10 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jordan Spieth | $8,600 | $10,100 | 31 | -7% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shane Lowry | $8,500 | $9,200 | 51 | -56% | -4% | 1/1 | 30 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Tony Finau | $8,400 | $9,900 | 31 | 18% | 18% | 0/1 | 73 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Jason Day | $8,300 | $10,200 | 31 | 17% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Webb Simpson | $8,200 | $9,500 | 32 | 11% | 19% | 1/2 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 96 | 3 |
| Paul Casey | $8,200 | $9,600 | 37 | 0% | 5% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 24 |
| Gary Woodland | $8,100 | $9,100 | 42 | -5% | 12% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 91 | 500 | 500 |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $8,100 | $9,400 | 42 | 0% | 5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $9,300 | 39 | 13% | 13% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 98 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $8,000 | $8,900 | 52 | -17% | 7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Chez Reavie | $7,900 | $8,700 | 49 | 4% | 27% | 3/3 | 6 | 4 | 500 | 12 | 500 |
| Rafael Cabrera-Bello | $7,900 | $8,600 | 52 | -4% | 26% | 1/1 | 500 | 4 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Sergio Garcia | $7,800 | $8,800 | 64 | -22% | -6% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Andrew Putnam | $7,800 | $8,900 | 49 | 15% | 21% | 1/2 | 2 | 500 | 500 | 149 | 500 |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,700 | $9,700 | 60 | 0% | -53% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Matt Wallace | $7,700 | $9,000 | 61 | -3% | -11% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Marc Leishman | $7,600 | $9,800 | 63 | 0% | -72% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Danny Willett | $7,600 | $8,800 | 63 | -3% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Billy Horschel | $7,500 | $9,000 | 57 | 15% | -4% | 4/4 | 51 | 4 | 500 | 8 | 6 |
| Matthew Wolff | $7,500 | $8,500 | 80 | -15% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Brandt Snedeker | $7,400 | $8,700 | 66 | 3% | -3% | 1/1 | 6 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Ian Poulter | $7,400 | $8,500 | 76 | -6% | 0% | 2/2 | 500 | 31 | 500 | 500 | 6 |
| Alexander Noren | $7,300 | $8,400 | 98 | -11% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Phil Mickelson | $7,300 | $9,100 | 75 | 3% | -44% | 5/5 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| Kevin Kisner | $7,200 | $8,600 | 72 | 10% | 0% | 1/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 50 |
| Eddie Pepperell | $7,200 | $8,300 | 100 | -10% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Bubba Watson | $7,100 | $8,200 | 98 | -2% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Cameron Smith | $7,100 | $8,400 | 94 | 5% | 0% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 153 | 500 | 500 |
| Jim Furyk | $7,000 | $8,000 | 102 | -2% | 6% | 0/1 | 500 | 87 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,000 | $8,000 | 103 | -5% | 4% | 2/3 | 3 | 52 | 500 | 500 | 98 |
| Keegan Bradley | $6,900 | $8,300 | 98 | 11% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Lucas Bjerregaard | $6,900 | $7,900 | 122 | -9% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kevin Na | $6,800 | $8,100 | 115 | -2% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| C.T. Pan | $6,800 | $7,600 | 163 | -13% | 0% | 1/1 | 18 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | $6,700 | $8,200 | 107 | 4% | -9% | 0/1 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 107 |
| Kevin Tway | $6,700 | $7,900 | 147 | -4% | -4% | 1/3 | 90 | 31 | 500 | 500 | 136 |
| Hao-Tong Li | $6,600 | $8,100 | 103 | 10% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Justin Harding | $6,600 | $7,800 | 141 | 2% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Nate Lashley | $6,500 | $7,700 | 163 | -2% | -4% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Keith Mitchell | $6,500 | $7,600 | 161 | 2% | 2% | 1/1 | 37 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Max Homa | $6,400 | $7,300 | 241 | -4% | 0% | 2/2 | 500 | 85 | 500 | 66 | 500 |
| Sung Kang | $6,400 | $7,500 | 230 | 0% | 0% | 1/3 | 115 | 80 | 118 | 500 | 500 |
| Corey Conners | $6,300 | $7,400 | 237 | 2% | 0% | 1/2 | 68 | 500 | 500 | 121 | 500 |
| Adam Long | $6,300 | $7,200 | 255 | -2% | 0% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Poom Saksansin | $6,200 | $7,000 | 539 | -5% | -3% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Shugo Imahira | $6,200 | $7,100 | 313 | -2% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Aaron Rai | $6,100 | $7,000 | 295 | 3% | 2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Mikumu Horikawa | $6,100 | $7,000 | 568 | -3% | -5% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Kodai Ichihara | $6,000 | $7,000 | 503 | 3% | -2% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
| Philip Eriksson | $6,000 | $7,000 | 924 | -2% | -7% | 0/0 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 | 500 |
Color Coding
Course history in BLUE indicates a top ten finish.
Course history in GREEN indicates a top 25 finish.
Course history in YELLOW indicates a made cut with a finish outside the top 25.
Course history in RED indicates a missed cut.
Legend
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Site % Odds | The percentage differential between a golfer’s salary rank and odds rank. The higher the %, the better. |
| OWGR | Official World Golf Ranking |
| Cuts | Cut record of each golfer at this course in the last five seasons. |
| 2014 – 2018 Columns | Course history at this event in the last five seasons. |
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