This week the top 50(ish) golfers in the world — with the exception of Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, Adam Scott, Francesco Molinari, Lee Westwood, and Shugo Imahara — plus 28 others making the trip to Memphis, Tennesse e for the WGC–Fed Ex St. Jude Invitational for a premier tournament and a premium pay-day. We’ll break down the course and odds from online sportsbooks as we bring you golf betting picks for the 2020 WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational.
WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational Course: TPC Southwind
TPC Southwind has been a consistent stop on the PGA Tour schedule for the last 30 years, but the course was promoted to host the WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational for the first time in 2019. As a World Golf Championship event, the entire field plays through the weekend without the threat of cut looming overhead on Friday.
TPC Southwind is a 7,238 yard Par 70 with Bermuda greens. Golfers need to keep it in the fairway to set themselves up to score on Southwind’s smaller-than-average putting surfaces. Doing so won’t be easy as TPC Southwind’s fairways play fairly tight. The rough around the greens is penal and will put golfers’ scrambling ability to the test if they make a habit out of missing them. Per usual length off the tee will help, as golfers face a handful of long par 4s between 400-450 yards at TPC Southwind.
Southwind has undergone some changes since last season, including a full renovation of the course’s bunkers that eliminated some that were around last year while adding new ones. The biggest change from golfers’ perspective will come at the par-5 No. 3. Already stretching 554 yards previously, 25 yards have been added to the hole thanks to a new tee box, and the fairway has shifted 15 yards to the right. Joining No. 3 with a new tee box, the par-4 No. 17 has been extended an additional 15 yards.
11 water hazards throughout the course can turn TPC Southwind into a water park if golfers aren’t careful, and as you know, golfers aren’t allowed to wear swim trunks on the course. Needless to say, these hazards can quickly interrupt a promising finish if golfers aren’t cautious and accurate.
Before Dustin Johnson shot -19 to beat the field by six strokes in 2018, the winning score at Southwind had traditionally been between 10-under and 13-under. Brooks Koepka won in 2019 at 16-under.
You’ll want to target golfers who are solid off the tee with good approach games, specifically those who excel from 150-175 yards on these long par 4s.
Favorites at the WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational
Fresh off a victory at the Memorial Jon Rahm +1000 is the favorite at online sports bettings sites, sitting slightly ahead of Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy +1200. Rahm’s odds have shortened significantly since becoming the World’s No. 1. If you don’t remember, we were able to grab Rahm +2200 at the Memorial just two weeks ago.
Rahm’s game is in top shape, well deserving of both the No. 1 ranking and his position on golf odds sheets, but playing favorites at the top of betting boards is particularly tricky this week ahead of the first major of the year.
That’s not to say the world’s bests won’t have motivation—a $10.5M purse with a top prize of $1.74M can garner the attention of golfers even if they have other things on their mind. But still, the Wanamaker Trophy, standing more than two feet high and weighing 27 pounds, is distracting, especially for high-pedigree golfers with hungry eyes for their first major championship. With the PGA Championship at TPC Harding merely a week away some of these golfers—namely the Jon Rahms, Bryson DeChambeaus, and Patrick Cantlays of the world— may have their hearts set on something money can’t buy, and they may treat the FedEx St. Jude accordingly, using TPC Southwind as a final tune-up for their games before an unusual three-stop major championship season commences on the West Coast.
Of course, Rahm’s game isn’t necessarily in need of a tune-up. Since missing the cut in Ft. Worth during the PGA’s first tournament back, Rahm is second in total strokes gained in the field, fourth in strokes gained tee-to-green, and fifth in strokes gained off-the-tee. The one area Rahm hasn’t been absolutely excellent is in his approach shots but he’s been well above average, ranking 26th in strokes gained approach in this field since golf has resumed. I loved him +2200 two weeks ago but I won’t be backing him again given the circumstances and the short odds. That doesn’t mean I won’t be shocked if he makes it two in a row on Sunday.
It’s not just Rahm I’m avoiding in these parts. Likewise, I’m staying away from Thomas, McIlroy and DeChambeau—all golfers that, admittedly, can win at any moment, on any course, this just isn’t the time I want to invest in them. McIlroy has been great off the tee—no surprise there—but he has struggled with his approach shots. He needs to dial it in ahead of the PGA Championship. Opposite of McIlroy, the aspect Thomas needs to improve on is his driving. He has been a sharp shooter with his irons, sitting only behind Viktor Hovland and Joaquin Nieman since the restart.
Bryson DeChambeau had an absurd seven consecutive top-10s plus a win before a literal 10 on a par 5 sent the big man home early at The Memorial. I don’t expect that disaster to haunt him, partly because there’s no doubt in my mind that the major championships ahead are consuming his mind.
Looking like a fullback, Bryson has dominated off the tee with his new physique and emphasis on trying to hit the ball literally as far as the human body possibly can. But, as we learned in ECON101, all things have an opportunity cost— that is, every time we do one thing we necessarily have to forgo doing something else desirable. In this case, it looks like DeChambeau’s time in the weight room has, at least temporarily, cost him accuracy with his irons and wedges. Losing proximity to the pin in each of his last three tournaments, DeChambeau has been visibly frustrated and even flabbergasted at times by unexpected distances and lack of control.
That was a very long way of saying I don’t trust top golfers enough, one week before a major, to put my money behind them even though there are 1.75 million reasons to say otherwise.
If I were looking for someone near the top of the betting board, my interest would be on either Patrick Cantlay +2000, Xander Schauffele +2200, or Collin Morikawa +2500. But I’m not so we’ll leave it at that.
WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational Mid-Tier Odds: Bet on Brooks Koepka to Repeat
Will it makes things awkward if I say I’m backing Brooks Koepka +3650 at DraftKings Sportsbook after that long spiel? I picked Dustin Johnson +1100 last week, so nothing can be more awkward than that.
Anyway, yes, I’m investing in Koepka, a golfer notorious for being too-cool-for-school and showing up to non-majors rather passionless. That’s generally true for Koepka and has been even more so this season. Missing two of his last three cuts, the four-time major champion is 155th in the FedEx Cup standings and has only one top-10 and two top-25s since winning this very tournament nearly a year ago to the day. Koepka has always carried himself as if he had more important things to worry about, but for the first time in a long time, his performances are beginning to reflect his lackadaisical attitude.
He is 56th in the field in strokes gained approach and 43rd in strokes gained tee-to-green since teeing off again in June. Last week, Koepka needed a birdie on his last hole to make the cut at the 3M Open. He pulled his drive left, forcing a layup, and then failed to put a short wedge shot close enough to give himself a chance to join his young brother, Chase, above the cut line. However, despite playing poorly on the 18th, Koepka actually didn’t miss the weekend due to poor ball-striking, errant tee shots, or a bad approach game, all things you’d assume if you only watched his final hole on Friday. But actually Brooks had his best performance of the season if you ignore his abysmal putting. He lost over five strokes with the short stick but gained 5.3 strokes tee-to-green and 3.3 strokes off-the-tee, which was better than any other player that missed the cut, and better than most who made the cut, too. So ignore the MC next to his name. In true Koepka fashion, it does is in fact appear that he is finding form right before the first major championship of the 2020—surprise, surprise.
Did I mention that he has a WGC FedEx St. Jude title to defend? Koepka’s first victory in Memphis came in 2019 but he has consistently played well at TPC Southwind dating back to 2014 when he finished 19th as a rookie. In 2015, two years before rising to golf prominence by winning his first of four majors, Koepka’s second Tour victory nearly happened in Memphis but he would settle for a bronze medal. He improved in 2016 with a runner-up. Needless to say, you should probably bet Koepka +3650 at DraftKings Sportsbook as soon as possible. On a final note, this time last year he was the favorite with shorter odds than accompany Jon Rahm this week. I really like Koepka in this spot and will risk 2 units to win 73. (Note: This line was accurate as of Monday afternoon. I like this bet down to +3000.)
Longshots at the WGC–FedEx St. Jude Invitational
We’ll end the outright betting card for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude with four longshot picks at smaller units: Matthew Wolff +9000, Joaquin Niemann +9500, Max Homa +15000, Keegan Bradley +25000.
The Oklahoma State product, Matthew Wolff, has become a staple in this weekly golf betting column. I won’t repeat what I’ve written before, but Wolff continues to show why he was so talked about after leaving Stillwater as a 20-year-old on the heels of an individual national championship last summer. 21st in ball-striking going back to the Charles Schwab Challenge, Wolff has a runner-up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, 22nd at the Memorial, and found himself in contention again in the final round at 3M Open, thanks to one of his better approach performances of the season. Wolff fared well at Southwind in 2019 with a 24th just two weeks after earning his first professional victory. It’s a strong field but Wolff has the talent to compete and is worth a 90-1 bet at DraftKings.
Losing significant strokes putting in two of his last three tournaments, Joaquin Niemann‘s only flashy finish was at the RBC Heritage more than a month ago. The young Chilean golfer has little to show for his superb ball-striking, a stat he ranks 5th in relative to the field. However, a win is certainly on the horizon if he can string together above-average putting performances for four days. DraftKings is again the best shop for this golf bet at nearly 100-to-1 odds.
The case for Max Homa is similar to the case for Niemann. Striking the ball well, Homa’s swing is in form, and he’ll tell you as much. It’s the putter that is keeping him down. Homa finally gained strokes putting last week, and instead of missing his fourth consecutive cut, he earned a third-place finish, which made for the second-best finish in his professional career.
And finally, we have Keegan Bradley, the veteran of the group. Bradley has missed only one of five cuts over the last six weeks, which is quite remarkable considering he lost 7 strokes putting at the Workday Charity Open and continued the theme by losing 5 strokes at the Memorial. Keegan Bradley and soul-crushing putting performances, it’s a story as old as time. Betting on someone who can three-putt from five feet at any moment isn’t comforting but 250-1 at Unibet is too good to pass up. Sign up at Unibet to get these odds!
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2020 WGC–FedEx Invitational Golf Betting Card
- Brooks Koepka +3650, 2 units to win 73 units
- Matthew Wolff +9000, 1 unit to win 90 units
- Joaquin Niemann +9500, 0.2 units to win 19 units
- Max Homa +15000, 0.2 units to win 30 units
- Keegan Bradley +25000, 0.2 units to win 50 units
2019-20 PGA Tour Season: +4.3 Units
And once again, if you’re looking for more general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.
(Top Photo Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel/USA TODAY Sports)