PGA Golf Betting Picks for the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic

by Matt Schmitto (schmitto) Last Updated 2020-07-02 14:48:47

Returning to Detroit Golf Club for its second installment, the Rocket Mortgage Classic is a classic in name only. In its PGA Tour debut a year ago, the Detroit Golf Club was arguably the easiest course on Tour.

One longshot golfer had zero complaints. After failing to Monday qualify, Nate Lashley made the field as an alternate and took full advantage of the opportunity. Shooting 25-under through four rounds, Lashley beat runner-up Doc Redman by six strokes. Lashley wasn’t even available to bet at many online sports betting sites.

Designed by Donald Ross, Detroit Golf Club is a par 72 measuring 7,334 yards. While the 5-under cut line was the lowest on Tour last year, tournament organizers grew out the rough in hopes of making the course a bit more challenging this time. With all that in mind, let’s look at golf odds across the industry and break down some golf betting picks for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Favorites

The PGA Tour resumed play three weeks ago, and if you were only looking at the top-third of golf betting odds, you might have mistaken recent tournaments for majors rather than casual stops on the PGA schedule. That changes this week as names like Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas, Dustin Johnson, and Jon Rahm will take a break from tournament golf for the holiday weekend.

One golfer sticking around is Bryson DeChambeau. Looking at his +650 odds to win the Rocket Mortgage Classic, it’s not hard to see why he’s playing for the fourth week in a row.

At first glance, DeChambeau looks more like a bodyguard than a golfer, but he’s using every extra pound of body weight to his advantage. The last time DeChambeau finished outside of the top eight was the same day Patrick Mahomes became a Super Bowl MVP. Now DeChambeau gets to attack four par 5s (16 if he plays all four rounds) for the first time since the Tour started back up in June. It’ll be a sight to see; his peers have said as much. So what’s the problem with betting on DeChambeau this week? His short odds.

Last year, Detroit GC showed that anyone could go low if they get hot on the greens. DeChambeau’s putter has improved recently, but it’s tough to bet on it at his current price tag across online sportsbooks.

However, the FOMO is real. I do want to find a way to have a piece of DeChambeau without taking the short odds. One way to do that is to bet on DeChambeau +1600 first-round leader at DraftKings Sportsbook. It might sound counterintuitive to shorten a bet on the best player rather than hoping he comes out on top after 72 holes but it’s something I’m comfortable doing in his spot. Since it will be a birdie fest that will require a score of at least 20-under to win, I don’t want to rely on DeChambeau’s short game for all four rounds. I’ll take the longer odds and hope DeChambeau can finish Round 1 with the solo lead.

Sitting behind DeChambeau are Webb Simpson +1300, Patrick Reed +1600, Tyrell Hatton +1700, Patrick Reed +1600. Simpson should fare well in a tournament that requires a streaky putter. We saw that play out for him two weeks ago in Harbour Town. Hatton’s superb play at WGC-Mexico and the Arnold Palmer Invitational carried over in his first appearance back at the RBC Heritage. He wasn’t great off the tee, but he continued to gain strokes with his approach shots, and nine strokes gained with his putter didn’t certainly didn’t hurt on his way to a third-place finish.

Ultimately this is too much of a putting fest for me to take short odds at the top of betting boards.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Mid-Tier Odds

A week ago we were getting Doc Redman at +25000, which sounds insane in hindsight. Fast forward a few days, and Redman is as low as +3300 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Yes, the field is weaker but the difference from one week to the next, regardless of the field, is mindblowing. Redman finished 21st at the RBC Heritage and then 11th at the Travelers. He wasn’t close enough to give a real sweat but oddsmakers have clearly recognized Redman’s game is trending in the right direction. If you bet Redman to win outright either of the last two weeks you haven’t won any money (trust me, I know), but the fact that his odds have changed so drastically is a sign that your process was right.

Despite the adjustment from oddsmakers, I’m not backing away from Redman yet. We can still find a +5000 price tag at FOX Bet, which is obviously an easier pill to swallow than +3300. Not only is Redman 4th in ball-striking and 1st in strokes gained approach among the field over their last three tournaments, but Redman also showed a liking to the course last year. His second-place finish at the Rocket Mortgage Classic is still his best PGA Tour performance yet. Bet Doc Redman +5000 at FOX Bet.

A little further down golf odds sheets sits Harold Varner III. You can find him as short as +6600 or as long as +9000 if you’re diligently shopping golf odds. Since resuming playing Varner has looked sharp everywhere but around and on the green. Last week, he ranked 5th in strokes gained approach. Varner also has the distance to take advantage of Detroit GC’s par 5s. I won’t pass up Varner +9000 at FOX Bet.

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Rocket Mortgage Classic Longshots

If you haven’t caught on by now, I’m an honorary member of the Matthew Wolff Fan Club. The membership hasn’t paid off for us this season, but his 135-1 win at the 3M open will take care of membership dues for the foreseeable future. Wolff was a top amateur before turning pro in 2019. He has certainly struggled in 2020, but I’m a believer in the 21-year-old. The strongest part of Wolff’s game is his driver which he hasn’t been able to unleash recently. Wolff finally has a quartet of par 5s to attack, not to mention Detroit GC’s wide fairways. I’m backing Matthew Wolff +12500 at PointsBet.

Wesley Bryan might not show off with his driver like Wolff, but he put on a clinic when it came to his second shots at the Travelers, gaining over nine strokes approach. It’s a good sign for Bryan, who had an impressive 2017 season before struggling in 2018 and eventually missing all of 2019 with an injury. Bryan has been able to get the putter hot at times, and though he won’t dominate these Par 5s like other golfers, I expect him to put the ball in the fairway and set up enough birdie opportunities to compete. Bet on Wesley Bryan +22000 at FanDuel Sportsbook

My last golf betting pick for the Rocket Mortgage Classic is on Tyler Duncan +15000 at FOX Bet. Duncan has made three consecutive cuts, finishing 38th, 28th, and most recently 32nd. Those are respectable finishes considering the strength of each field. Duncan will need to putt better than he did last week to have a chance in Detroit, but his nearly 70% driving accuracy should keep him out of trouble if the rough turns out to be more penal than expected. Outside of putting his statistics are solid across the board.

Rocket Mortgage Golf Betting Picks

2019-20 PGA Tour Season: -33.35 units

Check out our PGA Betting Guide for more golf betting tips.

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