3M Open Golf Betting Picks
For the second week in a row, a course makes its debut on the PGA Tour schedule. Last week, it was the Detroit Golf Club at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, where the change of scenery opened the way for a huge long shot to take down the tournament. According to GolfOdds.com, odds weren’t even posted for Nate Lashley, who used two 63s to dominate the field by six shots. Instead, you likely bet on ‘the field’ if you had a winning online sports betting pick.
Lashley was slated as an alternate and wouldn’t have played if it wasn’t for withdrawals the day before the tournament. No one saw Lashley coming, and if you aren’t familiar with his road to this point, I suggest you check out ESPN’s Tom VanHaaren’s piece on the former real estate agent. You’ll likely find yourself rooting for him again this week (and anytime he plays).
This week, golfers tee off in Minnesota at TPC Twin Cities. Some golfers will use the tournament as a final tune-up for The 2019 Open Championship in two weeks; others hope the tournament helps them find their way to Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland. We’ll look at golfers in both camps, as we break down the course and the PGA odds for the 3M Open to bring you PGA golf betting tips and golf betting picks.
3M Open Course – TPC Twin Cities
Like last week, with TPC Twin Cities being a new stop on Tour, we have very little to go off of to predict how the course will play in terms of style and difficulty. Instead, it’s more scorecards and yardage books until we hear what players say after their practice rounds.
Arnold Palmer designed the Par 71 course, and tournament officials have stretched it a few extra football fields so it will play 7,468 yards for the pros. At least six of the Par 4s and Par 5s play left to right. There’s little angulation, but water is in play on many of the holes. Golfers will be hitting their second shots into bentgrass greens.
There might be water, but that doesn’t mean it will be difficult to navigate. The fairways are wide, so look for golfers who can take advantage of the course with their driver. Fireworks won’t stop on the Fourth of July, as they’ll be going off throughout the weekend with plenty of birdie opportunities at TPC Twin Cities.
Favorites at The 3M Open
Brooks Koepka +800 headlines the tournament with the likes of Hideki Matsuyama +1300, Jason Day +1300 and Bryson Dechambeau +1600 (BetStars).
Expect Koepka to treat this like he did the Canadian Open the week before the U.S. Open. The four-time major winner barely made the cut and finished 20 strokes behind Rory McIlroy one week before playing in the final pairing at Pebble Beach. Koepka has been outspoken about his lack of interest in non-majors, and it shows in his stats. Consider this: Koepka has four major championships in nine attempts, but only has two wins in 110 non-major PGA Tour events. He’s certainly capable of turning any course into his own playground, but Koepka strikes me as someone who might be more worried about fireworks and beer Thursday night. As I’ve said before, I’m saving all of my Koepka shares for majors.
Matsuyama crosses into the Central Time Zone after finishing T13 in Detroit. He gained over six strokes tee-to-green but is still waiting for his putter to help him earn his first victory since 2017. He ranks first in the field in strokes gained tee-to-green in his last 50 rounds.
Day makes his second stop since a T21 finish at the U.S. Open. Most recently, the Australian found himself tied for eighth place at the Travelers Championship with his new caddie Steve Williams. Known for illnesses and injuries, Day is one of the most talented golfers on tour but also one of the biggest wildcards. His only two missed cuts of the year have taken place in tournaments leading up to a major.
With the same odds as Day, Dechambeau is another golfer who looked in form at the Travelers Championship. The 25-year-old has had an up-and-down year, including a three-week slump where he missed cuts at The Heritage, PGA Championship and Charles Schwab Challenge. Since then, he has a T22, T35 and a T8. He’s lost strokes off-the-tee in three of his last five tournaments, which is one reason I’ll likely stay away from him here.
If I’m going with anyone out of the top guys, it would be Matsuyama. Given the new track and what is expected to be a birdie fest, I prefer to have exposure to a wider range of mid-tier and longshot odds.
3M Open Mid-Tier Odds
I’ve already written plenty about Viktor Hovland +4000 (BetStars) the last two weeks, but I’ll stay on message and continue to back the rookie in his third tournament since turning pro. Hovland hasn’t put himself in contention heading into Sunday, but he shot an 8-under 64 in the final round of the Rocket Mortgage Class for a T13 finish. He wasn’t as impressive off the tee as he was at the Travelers and the U.S. Open, but hopefully the short stick and the driver will be in sync this go-around. My money is on the Norweigen to getting his first win in less than 40 tries.
Keegan Bradley +4500 (DraftKings Sportsbook) gained almost 10 strokes putting as the runner-up two weeks ago, which would normally scare me away from betting on him here. +4500 at Draftkings is still a good price compared to +3300 at BetStars.
Another mid-tier golfer worth considering is Tony Finau +3500 (BetStars). Finau made his first cut last week after missing three straight. His form is questionable, but he’s always a threat to go low, especially when the driver is in play.
Longshots at the 3M Open
Jason Dufner +10000 at DraftKings is one of my favorite values on the board. You’ll find him as low as +6600 at BetStars. Dufner his notorious for being a bad putter. Unsurprisingly, he lost strokes on the green in his last two tournaments. Still, the veteran has shown signs of life, including a respectable U.S. Open performance and a top-10 finish at the Memorial. Dufner can dial it in with his approach game. This is a good opportunity at a 100-to-1 longshot.
Additionally, bad putters like Lucas Glover +8000 and Luke List +11000 (DraftKings) have seen their outright odds fall in recent months. Glover was between +4000 and +6000 earlier this season and finished inside the top 16 in half of his appearances this year. List lacks Glover’s consistency tee-to-green, but the bomber just finished sixth at the PGA Championship in May.
Other longshots I’ll likely have exposure to are Colin Morikawa +7000 (DraftKings), Mackenzie Hughes +9000 and Matthew Wolff +13500 all at DraftKings. Morikawa has looked great as a rookie, making three straight cuts and gaining strokes tee-to-green in all five of his appearances dating back to the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Hughes gained strokes everywhere last week for a T21. The Canadian has two top-15 showings in his last four tournaments. Lastly, Wolff has struggled in his first two professional events. I’m willing to give him one more shot at TPC Twin Cities.
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.