3M Open Golf Betting Picks
That’s back-to-back winning golf betting picks thanks to Jon Rahm’s dominant performance in Ohio. We’ll try to make it three in a row as the PGA Tour heads to Minnesota for the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities, a tournament in which we found success last year picking 135-1 longshot and eventual winner Matthew Wolff. Follow along as we break down the course, golf odds across the online sports betting industry, and PGA golf betting tips and picks for the 3M Open.
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3M Open Course – TPC Twin Cities
- 7,114 Yards
- Par 72
- Bentgrass Greens
Debuting on the Tour schedule last year, this week will mark only the second time TPC Twin Cities has hosted a PGA Tour event. With minimal rounds at the venue, course history at TP C Twin Cities is especially thin .
Arnold Palmer designed the Par 72 course, and tournament officials have stretched it a few extra football fields so it will play 7,468 yards for the pros. At least six of the par 4s and par 5s play left to right. There’s little angulation, but water is in play on many of the holes.
There might be water but that doesn’t mean it will be difficult to navigate. The fairways are wide, so look for golfers who can take advantage of the course with their irons and ball-striking.
In its first rendition, then-rookie Matthew Wolff was able to grab his first win on the PGA Tour by shooting 21-under despite only an average putting performance. Wolff dominated with his irons and approach shots, gaining 13.3 strokes tee-to-green.
Betting Favorites at The 3M Open
Dustin Johnson +1100 headlines the tournament one week after an abysmal week where he failed to break 80 in his two rounds at the Memorial. Good thing he wasn’t on the course Sunday, which featured US Open-like carnage throughout the final round. Sitting below Johnson at sportsbooks are Tony Finau and Brooks Koepka each +1200, followed by Paul Casey and Tommy Fleetwood +1600, Lucas Glover +2000, Bubba Watson +25000, and defending champion Matthew Wolff +3300.
While I typically stay away from the top of the betting board, I’m making an exception for the 3M Open, which features arguably the weakest field we’ve seen in 2020. Guys like Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka should be able to show their dominance and make the course their playground even without their A-game.
There’s a case to made for backing Brooks Koepka but his form is lacking compared to Johnson’s. Koepka has only one top-10 finish this season and he was lucky to stick around through the weekend at the Memorial. Though Koepka didn’t play well here a year ago, it’s worth noting that many of the top golfers were using the 3M Open to tune-up their games ahead of the 2019 Open Championship. I expect a more valiant effort for Koepka this time around but I prefer making Koepka a PGA DFS play rather than an outright bet.
As for Finau, his odds are down to +1200 a week after opening +7000. The field is weak but I can’t stomach the short odds when Johnson is available at +1100.
Fleetwood, who is always worthy of consideration, makes his first appearance on American soil since the Honda Classic. I’ll let him get acclimated to the new scene before adding him to a betting card.
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3M Open PGA Golf Betting Picks
Dustin Johnson +1100 (FanDuel) – It won’t make for a sexy pick but I’m going straight to the top to bet on Dustin Johnson +1100. Johnson skipped the 3M Open in its debut but I expect him to use the tournament to quickly return to form after his embarrassing showing. It absolutely wouldn’t surprise me of Johnson walks away with his second win in three tournaments this Sunday.
Matthew Wolff +3300 (FOX Bet) – I’ll close this range by betting on Wolff to defend his title. Of course, this isn’t the kind of value we found on Wolff in 2019 but the 21-year-old just had a sneaky good performance at the Memorial. After recording a quadruple-bogey on the third hole and a triple-bogey on no. 16 in Round 1, Wolff fought back to make the cut and finished T22. Let’s not forget Wolff nearly earned his second Tour victory just two weeks ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
3M Open Mid-Tier Betting Picks
Erik Van Rooyen +4500 (FOX Bet) – Van Rooyen jumps out at +4500 on FOX Bet after two top-25s in his last three tournaments. Van Rooyen spent his college career at the University of Minnesota, so he’s familiar with the area and should feel at home. Van Rooyen spoke about the upcoming tournament to Minnesota’s Star Tribune, saying “I’m stoked. I’m obviously very grateful for the invitation. This one will be special for me because it is somewhat of a homecoming. It’s a track that I love, a track that I have so many fond memories of playing with my old teammates.”
Earlier this season, Van Rooyen proved he could keep up with star golfers like Johnson and Koepka at the WGC Mexico Championship, where the Gopher finished third. A win will make Van Rooyen the second sponsor exemption to win at the 3M in as many years.
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Longshot Betting Picks at the 3M Open
Here are a few longshot bets I’ll have, all at 1/5 units each.
Max Homa +8000 (FOX Bet)
Bernd Wiesberger +10000 (DraftKings)
Sam Ryder +10000 (FOX Bet)
Aaron Wise +12500 (FOX Bet)
Cam Davis +20000 (FOX Bet)
3M Open Golf Betting Card
Dustin Johnson +1100, 2u to win 22u
Matthew Wolff +3300, 1u to win 33u
Erik Van Rooyen +4500, 1u to win 45u
Max Homa +8000, 0.20u to win 16u
Bernd Wiesberger +10000, 0.20u to win 20u
Sam Ryder +10000, 0.20u to win 20u
Aaron Wise +125000, 0.20u to win 25u
Cam Davis +20000, 0.20u to win 40u
2019-20 PGA Tour Season: +9.3 Units
And once again, if you’re looking for general golf betting tips, please refer to our PGA golf betting guide.