PGA Hole by Hole: TPC Boston

by PuddinCheeks Last Updated 2016-09-02 13:42:20

Bethpage State Park lived up to its reputation last week causing some players serious headaches if they didn’t stick to the plan. Sadly enough for Rickie Fowler, his hopes of claiming victory fell short on the incoming nine allowing Patrick Reed to jump to the top spot. There were lots of fireworks last week and hopefully we will get to experience many more throughout the upcoming events.

Moving on to the second stop in the FedexCup playoffs, the players travel to Massachusetts to battle for a top 70 spot in the rankings to continue onward. Fantasy golf will get much tougher now since only 30% of the field will miss the cut. As well as, this will be the final event with a cut in the 2016 season. This means moving forward the strategy will change slightly for those players that enjoy the no-cut events. Personally, the edge of picking the right players to make the cut and the boost it gives you is what appeals to me the most in golf DFS. It is certainly much tougher when the entire field is smaller and plays all days of an event. So keep that in mind in the coming weeks.

TPC Boston • Norton, MA • Par 71 • 7242 yards

The name Gil Hanse has certainly been on top of the spectrum this year in the golf world. The man with his team have been responsible for the courses played on for the Scottish Open and most recently the Olympic golf competitions.

Hanse was recruited to redesign TPC Boston in 2007 and brought the rustic, natural feel of New England to the already well known course. Since all of this took place almost eight years ago we have lots of consistent data to use for this upcoming tournament.

Scorecard

Below are the aggregated averages for each hole and the course dating back to 2011.

This can be a very high scoring course and will make for some great fantasy scores. With seven holes averaging under par and only a single hole averaging under .5 fantasy points (#14), picking the players who can go low will be paramount. An “average” team of six players will need to be around 383 fantasy points just to keep pace with the field. That is not accounting for placement or streak bonuses. An anomaly in scoring happened on this course in 2013 due to extreme amounts of precipitation and the scoring was boosted all the way up to 17.54 DK points average for player, meaning a team would have scored around 421 to be average. That shows when this course is soft what can be accomplished here. The lowest average score of 14.93 was last year and a team would have been around 359 average. The overall course Over/Under scoring is 21%-Under, 63%-Par, 16%-Over. The initial reports are low to moderate winds with 40% precipitation chance, so the conditions could be right for another low scoring tournament.

Hole by Hole Analysis

NOTE: Images are from Google Earth
Format Notes:
Tee Shots (Drive/Approach) = 290/150, (Landing width)
Green (Width/Depth) = 25/25
Elevation: Distance in (feet) of elevation change uphill(+), downhill(-)
Direction: The Direction that the hole plays towards.
Scoring: Percent per hole based on Under-Par, Par, Over-Par. Under(XX.X%),Par(XX.X%),Over(XX.X%)
All other Measurements in yards.
The displayed shot markers on the images are for “Tee Shot 1” for each respective hole.

Hole #1: Par 4 • 365 yards • Rank: 14

A very generous opening hole to start the course, this short par 4 gives players the option to aim for a wider fairway with a layup shot to a desired yardage or to go straight at the green by carrying a bunker on the rightside of the fairway (290 yards). Either option the players choose this hole is very gettable and leaving with a par or worse will not be a great score.

Tee Shot 1: 280/85, 32
Tee Shot 2: 330/35, 28
Green: 20/35
Elevation: +5
Direction: Southwest
Scoring: Under(21.2%), Par(68.4%), Over(10.4%)

Hole #2: Par 5 • 542 yards • Rank: 15

With another early scoring opportunity this par 5 can be reachable in two shots. It averages about three eagles per round and the wind direction can determine if players take on the chance of the water hazard to try to reach in two. This hole is over 2:1 in Under/Over par scoring so a Par here will actually cause your fantasy teams to go backwards.

Tee Shot 1: 290/180/90, 28
Tee Shot 2: 330/195, 31
Green: 20/32
Elevation: +/-0
Direction: Northeast
Scoring: Under(34.2%), Par(49.4%), Over(16.4%)

Hole #3: Par 3 • 208 yards • Rank: 4

Hole 3 is a testy par 3 with a tricky ridged green that scores almost 2:1 Over/Under. Avoiding the deep large bunker to the front right of the green and getting the ball on the surface will be the first serious test this course has to offer.

Tee Shot 1: 208

Green: 35/20
Elevation: +3
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(12.5%), Par(66.5%), Over(20.9%)

Hole #4: Par 4 • 298 yards • Rank: 17

This drive-able par 4 gives the players a decision to go for it or take the easy layup to pick a distance to the pin. The main defense here will be pin position with a very large bunker guarding the majority of the green. Most players who go for it will try to miss to the right but if they go too far they bring on some more trouble into some native grass. Leaving here with par or worse will be a significant blow for fantasy purposes.

Tee Shot 1: 250/43, 46
Tee Shot 2: 290/0, 15
Green: 15/28
Elevation: +2
Direction: West
Scoring: Under(44.2%), Par(47.4%), Over(8.3%)

Hole #5: Par 4 • 466 yards • Rank: 5

A strategic drive off of the tee to the right side of the fairway is necessary to have a better angle to this green that goes to the left behind a deep bunker. The only downside is the farther to the right a player goes the more distance they add to the pin. A Pin that can be placed on the back of the green could be almost 200 yards on approach from a far right and semi short drive. This is a hole where length off the tee will give players a significant advantage if they find the fairway.

Tee Shot 1: 290/175, 40
Tee Shot 2: 330/135, 36
Green: 22/42
Elevation: +5
Direction: East
Scoring: Under(12.9%), Par(68.6%), Over(18.5%)

Hole #6: Par 4 • 465 yards • Rank: 3

This hole is quite similar in length to the previous hole but large numbers are brought into play by water that protects the front of the green. It is a little more straight than hole five, but once again players will try to be on the right side of the fairway for an optimal approach angle. There are bunkers that guard the right side of the fairway and finding them will make scoring a par very difficult.

Tee Shot 1: 290/175, 32
Tee Shot 2: 330/130, 32
Green: 23/40
Elevation: -17
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(11.8%), Par(68.3%), Over(19.9%)

Hole #7: Par 5 • 600 yards • Rank: 16

After two holes of moderate difficulty the players come across the 600 yard par 5. To an average Joe these sound scary but to tour pros this one is no sweat. The only danger on this hole is a bad initial tee shot which would mean players have to layup to the wrong side of the nasty hazard that dissects the fairway leaving around a 150 yard approach. There is a chance that someone eagles this hole if conditions are right, but it is very slim with two or less for the entirety of most tournaments.

Tee Shot 1: 290/225/75, 33
Tee Shot 2: 330/260, 30
Green: 22/38
Elevation: +30
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(33.7%), Par(55.8%), Over(10.5%)

Hole #8: Par 3 • 213 yards • Rank: 7

Typical for most par 3s at TPC Boston, get it on the playing surface or face some sand or nasty uneven stances pitching to the green. A front pin position can be tricky here since this green has a false front that will collect back down below the level of the green about 5 feet.

Tee Shot 1: 213

Green: 23/35
Elevation: -3
Direction: Northeast
Scoring: Under(13.8%), Par(68.5%), Over(17.8%)

Hole #9: Par 4 • 472 yards • Rank: 8

This is the first of three holes that I have been describing lately as split holes. The Under and Over par scoring for this hole are almost equal, meaning this is where you can gain ground against other fantasy teams if your guys come out with a birdie. It is still not as good as a 20/60/20 split, but this one is still high enough to be worthwhile. The trick with this hole is most players will layup off the tee because of the fairly sharp dogleg left and narrowing fairway. Long hitters will have an advantage here as the fairway actually widens a bit the further out it goes. Staying to the left side off the tee and avoiding the bunkers is critical to shorten the approach distance to this punch bowl green. Many shots will land short of the green and funnel down to it from the longer iron shots.

Tee Shot 1: 290/185, 29
Tee Shot 2: 330/150, 37
Green: 24/29
Elevation: +10
Direction: Northwest
Scoring: Under(15.1%), Par(70.3%), Over(14.6%)

Hole #10: Par 4 • 425 yards • Rank: 10

For a shorter par 4 you would think that scoring would be much better here than it has shown. This is probably due to the fairway being a little uneven and players approaching a green that is on the small side and angled away to the left guarded by bunkers on both sides. It is still close to 20 percent under par so one of every five players should be able to birdie here.

Tee Shot 1: 290/130, 30
Tee Shot 2: 330/90, 28
Green: 23/25
Elevation: +/-0
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(18.8%), Par(67.7%), Over(13.5%)

Hole #11: Par 3 • 231 yards • Rank: 2

A monster of a par 3, the only thing that is missing here is water. Most players will bail out to the left and try to get to ball to funnel down to the green. Take a par and move on here, a birdie is a huge bonus for anyone that sneaks one in.

Tee Shot 1: 231

Green: 25/34
Elevation: +12
Direction: Southwest
Scoring: Under(8.5%), Par(71.9%), Over(19.6%)

Hole #12: Par 4 • 461 yards • Rank: 6

Now we reach a great split hole where we hope our players can make birdie to gain some separation. This one is the best split on the card at 17.3:18.5 (Under:Over), since it is tipped to the over and still has a high enough amount of Under par scoring. Find the guys that can get this one done right and you will climb up the leaderboards. Players will try to hug the left side of the fairway to allow the most exposure on approach to a green that angles away to the right. A drive to the short right, even in the fairway, will make this one very tough hole to make par.

Tee Shot 1: 290/170, 35
Tee Shot 2: 330/130, 29
Green: 26/24
Elevation: -9
Direction: Southwest
Scoring: Under(17.3%), Par(64.1%), Over(18.5%)

Hole #13: Par 4 • 451 yards • Rank: 9

Back to back split holes are even better with this one scoring at 16.8:15.8 tipped to the Under. It is another medium-length par 4 and continues a difficult stretch of holes. This one is a touch easier than the previous, but players will need a well placed drive on the left side of the fairway for the best chance at birdie.

Tee Shot 1: 290/165, 35
Tee Shot 2: 330/130, 28
Green: 29/30
Elevation: +12
Direction: North
Scoring: Under(16.8%), Par(67.5%), Over(15.8%)

Hole #14: Par 4 • 495 yards • Rank: 1

This will be the last tough hole on the course as well as end the stretch that started at #11. This is the hardest test on the course though where distance and accuracy are both needed. For the third hole in a row, players will be in the best position on left side of the fairway to have the proper angle of approach into the green. This is the only hole on the course where a par can actually gain fantasy points against the field average. Which also means that a large share of our players are going to bogey this hole as well. Really though, if you have a player that goes from 11 through 14 in one under with no bogeys you have theoretically gained 2.39 DK points against the average on the round.

Tee Shot 1: 290/220, 35
Tee Shot 2: 330/175, 38
Green: 23/31
Elevation: -20
Direction: South
Scoring: Under(9%), Par(62.7%), Over(28.3%)

Hole #15: Par 4 • 421 yards • Rank: 13

Starting the finish towards the clubhouse are some of the easier holes and will make for a very exciting closing to the tournament. Players will want to hug the left of this fairway to present themselves’ the optimal approach angle here. A quarter of the players will birdie this hole and almost all will have some sort of short iron approach uphill to the green.

Tee Shot 1: 290/130, 33
Tee Shot 2: 330/90, 20
Green: 29/36
Elevation: +24
Direction: Northeast
Scoring: Under(23.4%), Par(63.6%), Over(13%)

Hole #16: Par 3 • 187 yards • Rank: 11

We will get to see a few highlights of players clicking one off of the scenic wall that wraps around the front of this green to the water. This hole is not terribly long, but has dreaded “liquid hot magma” that eats balls alive if they aren’t hit far enough. Other than that, this one is an easy length where birdies can be made here to the tune of around one in five players.

Tee Shot 1: 187

Green: 23/35
Elevation: -4
Direction: Southeast
Scoring: Under(18.9%), Par(69.1%), Over(11.9%)

Hole #17: Par 4 • 412 yards • Rank: 12

This hole screams video game all over it. The perfect decision hole where players can stay to the right and try to get to the end of the fairway for an almost dead parallel approach to the green. Or players can choose to go to an almost entirely different fairway and take a significant amount off of the next shot’s distance. No matter which route a player takes landing it in the short grass is priority one though.

Tee Shot 1: 280/135, 36
Tee Shot 2: 320/75, 18
Green: 15/31
Elevation: -12
Direction: West
Scoring: Under(18.4%), Par(69.7%), Over(12%)

Hole #18: Par 5 • 530 yards • Rank: 18

It’s not often that the closing hole is the easiest on the course, but it sure makes for great entertainment when it is. Unlike the Wyndham a few weeks ago where the 18 was one of the hardest, this hole will bring smiles and fantasy points to a lineup near you. It will certainly be frowns though if your guys screw this one up coming in. A par on this hole will lose 1.78 DK points to the field average.

Tee Shot 1: 290/240, 54
Tee Shot 2: 320/215, 24
Green: 21/28
Elevation: +/-0
Direction: East
Scoring: Under(47.7%), Par(41.1%), Over(11.2%)

Summary

At first glance, this course does not appear to require huge drives or finite accuracy off the tee. But after going through the course and seeing how the greens set up on most of the holes, a player will have to be in the right spots in the fairways to be able to access most of the pin positions. Of course this would be even more critical if the greens are firm and fast and players can not just fire directly at the pins. Keep an eye on the weather forecast because as shown in previous years if this course gets soft scoring goes extremely low. There are a handful of holes where bombers will have the upper hand and there are many where all players will be sort of equal. This week only 29 or so players will get cut and with the higher fantasy scores a 6/6 is the target. The only way I see a 5/6 cashing this weekend is if some really chalky guys fall apart, but even then with an average player on the weekend accumulating roughly 30 raw fantasy points, a very large gap can be created. This is our final week for the cut edge so pick the right guys and make the most of it. Another very interesting point about this course is that the some of the holes on the front nine are a very long way from each other. It made me curious so I measured the course from the practice putting green and a full loop if a player hit the fairway on every hole to the 18th green and it is over 10,000 yards full walk. So every day the golfers are putting in right at six miles of walking just on the course alone. Most of these guys are in top shape so it may be a non-factor but I thought it at least deserved a mention.

A funny tidbit, while I was writing this article, The Legend of Bagger Vance was on loop on the golf channel. It is a sign you play way to much fantasy golf when you imagine what shot tracker said when Junah went in the woods.

Shot 1: 275 yards into unknown
Found his soul
Shot 2: 180 yards to green, 3ft to hole.

I have even started applying that to myself now on the course. Way too many random shots to native area. I’ve even started writing down my fantasy score on my card each time I play. Every time I get a birdie now and put that big 3 down there I like to say, “Like that Rory!,” that is how you putt the ball. Well, enough rambling, good luck this week to everyone and remember this week the contest runs Friday throughMonday so you get an extra day to dial those lineups in.