PGA Ownership Report: Northern Trust Open

by Sean O'Donnell (hokie2009) Last Updated 2016-02-25 01:07:19

Happy Thursday morning; let’s rise and shine with a look at our ownership levels for this week’s DraftKings PGA contests!

Let’s jump right into the data, and I’ll let you know some quick thoughts afterwards!

Here’s the highest owned summary for the $3 Birdie:

Full field ownerships (for individuals and ‘teams’) can be found here!

And we have a co-ownerships matrix that shows who the highest owned pairs of golfers were in this week’s $3 Birdie:

So you’ll notice in the link above there is information for the $20 GPP as well as the $5 Double-Up to give us some other perspectives, but I think we see similar trends in both.

I think Kevin Na was one of the harder reads coming in, as he came off a performance where a lot of people had him and he missed the cut, but was also a fairly strong pricing outlier to most. It’s kind of obvious to predict that a guy will be high owned or low owned when everything aligns one way or the other – hot streak, cold streak, etc. But with Na there were conflicting factors – a big price decrease, as well as a very bad recent performance fresh in people’s memory, and I think most people were picking him thinking he would be slightly under-owned … and therefore we don’t see a lot of people reducing their Na ownership in GPP like we do with everyone else who is highly owned in cash.

Nothing earth-shattering just an interesting tidbit to me!

I thought it was interesting to see Spieth hold such a strong percentage coming off a “mediocre” T21 last week, and a huge price increase. I think that’s mostly reflective of people wanting to ride his odds to win in a GPP, as well as another case of, I believe, people expecting him to be a little under-owned in GPP and actually over-reacting … as we see nearly 20% taking him in GPP while only about 12% in cash. Many don’t like to include punt plays in cash games, so that’s a contributing factor for staying away from Spieth in cash, but overall, those are fairly healthy ownership percentages despite a top shelf price without coming in blazing hot.

Outside of that, in both the $3 and the $20 GPP, we see a definite trend towards the ownership levels being very “flat”, i.e., we’re not getting anyone extremely high owned. Owners are definitely adjusting to spread out ownerships in GPPs these days it seems. Schwartzel and Sergio Garcia are the shiny new toys, meanwhile a lot of good publicity has resurrected Keegan Bradley as a go-to commodity in both GPPs and Cash Games this week! I can’t wait to see how this turns out – it will either be heaven or hell for one side or the other depending on how that one plays out!

As far as the high-end guys go, we have quite a few this week!

Jordan Spieth 19.3%
Sergio Garcia 15.6%
Dustin Johnson 14.9%
Bubba Watson 14.1%
Justin Rose 13.4%
Jimmy Walker 11.5%
Hideki Matsuyama 10.2%
Rory McIlroy 8.4%

So if you were going to pay up, Spieth was by far the more popular choice to Rory, presumably with many afraid to build around him in his first trip here. Nothing too dramatic inbetween with the ownerships only ranging from 10% to 15% outside of those two. Like the others, the field seems to have autocorrected itself against jumping too much on one player coming in!

So that’s what everyone is holding! Now time for us all to stop holding our breath, and see if our guys can make it to the weekend!

Good luck everyone, and as always, make sure to let me know in the comments who shocked you, who you’re excited to see high, and who you’re excited to see low!