PGA Projected Ownership: WGC-HSBC Champions
Last Week: Justin Thomas (10.25% pOwn%, 12.98% Actual) recovered from a disappointing Saturday 71 by crushing the field with a Sunday 64, taking the CIMB Classic for the second year in a row. Hideki Matsuyama (18.77% pOwn%, 13.18% actual) continues to trend upwards with a solo 2nd place, three strokes back. Super-scrub Derek Fathauer (6.62% pOwn%, 5.46% actual) and low-owned Anirban Lahiri (2.30% pOwn%, 5.44% actual) tied for third, winning some DFS golf folks good money.
Congrats to Guizzy for winning the DK Dogleg last week. Guizzy was all over skinny JT, Lahiri and Hideki. Guizzy sprinkled in some chalky Danny Lee (32.67% pOwn%, 16.86% actual, yikes-missed that one), boom-or-bust fav Patrick Rodgers (10.00% pOwn%, 7.25% actual) and scrub Adam Hadwin (7.66% pOwn%, 7.22% actual) to complete the winning entry. The roster had a 10.49% average ownership, within the familiar GPP range for weaker field tourneys. I suspect the target average ownership will be a bit higher this week in the stronger field of the WGC-HSBC Champions.
Editor’s Note: In the near future, subscribers to DraftKings PGA Premium content will have access to all current week and historical pOwn% data. Updates will be made throughout the week due to injury news, tout activity, odds/line movement, weather/tee-times, etc. But for this week, focusing on the $33 DK Dogleg, everyone has access to everything. Enjoy!
This Week’s Tweaks:
We again expect a higher concentration of “sharps” this week. Fantasy golf is competing well in this busy fantasy season, perhaps the golf GPP prize pools will be picking back up soon. We have another no cut event, so let’s expect more “Stars and Scrubs” aggressive roster-building by targeting more boom-or-bust favorites like Holmes, Woodland and the Kokrak. Course history, recent form and touting material will be weighted stoutly again this week. Weather could be an issue. As of this writing during the sixth inning of the World Series game 1, it appears we could have a Thur PM/Fri AM advantage working. Kevin Roth, we need some help please.
We will again be focusing on the DK $115K ($33 entry) Dogleg this week.
Upper Tier ($8K +):
Dustin Johnson (28% pOwn% and falling): Another tournament, another DJ pOwn% write-up. Can someone out there please give DJ some ownership competition? Oh wait, Rory also made the trip to China. Just a few weeks from swiping that $10 million bonus check from DJ and now sporting some new TaylorMade equipment, maybe Rory can also swipe this week’s GPP chalk title. If not, perhaps Adam Scott can do it. Scott seems kind of cheap at $9.4K and finished decently at the Tour Championship (T8 at 33% GPP ownership) and last week in Malaysia (T10 at 30% ownership). Maybe we got some foreshadowing from DJ’s kindred spirit, NBA player J.R. Smith last night. Smith also received a nice paycheck recently and then went out and shot 3-for-13 in his first event of the season. It’s still not enough to fade DJ. He’s the chalk. Hey, there’s hope, DJ’s line movement is not looking too good…
Alexander Noren (5% pOwn%): Who is this guy again? Oh yeah, I remember. We got excited about Noren last July after he won the Scottish Open. But he couldn’t hang with Henrik or Corporate Phil at The Open. Noren was also there for Jimmy Walker’s big weekend at Baltusrol, making the cut and finishing T49. I, like many others, felt safe in forgetting about Noren after that. But then Noren goes out and wins two tourneys: the Omega European Masters in September and the British Masters two weeks ago. He has good odds to win among his salary neighbors, maybe Noren can be this week’s Anirban Lahiri. He’ll have similar ownership being priced higher than the likes of Kuchar, Grillo, Berger and Rafa.
Middle Tier ($7K – $8K):
Alexander Levy (8% pOwn%): Whoa, another Alexander! This one, is the line movement stud of the week. Levy finished T4 in the previously mentioned British Masters but won the Porsche European Open in September. He started the week out at 100-1, but now has better odds to win than guys like Roberto Castro, Jimmy Walker and Tyrrell Hatton. Levy, like most other EURO and Chinese players, will have depressed ownership and could be a sneaky option for getting that roster average ownership down.
Hao-Tong Li (2% pOwn%): %): Li should be the highest owned Chinese player and did finish 7th in last year’s event. His recent form doesn’t look so good. But at least we know Li will be playing all weekend barring injury.
Lower Tier ($5.7K – $7K):
Kevin Kisner (23% pOwn% and rising): ): You can roster Hao-Tong Li or Shih-chang Chan for $7K, or mosey on down the salary list and take this guy named Kevin Kisner at $6.9K. Kisner has not cracked the Top-20 since the Wyndham, but his odds rock in this salary range and we can pronounce/type his name with confidence.
Shane Lowry (6.5% pOwn%): Lowry dropped off a cliff after his T2 finish at the U.S. Open last June. After leaving Oakmont, the rest of Lowry’s summer was atrocious, enduring a streak of four consecutive cuts. Two of those cuts were majors, but the cut at the Travelers wasn’t cool. However, since then he has gone T42-T24-T18-T41, I can see a decent positive trend there. Lowry will get demolished by Woodland and Kisner in ownership, so perhaps you have now found your low-owned scrub helping you build up your bankroll.
Updates will be made Wednesday afternoon and a few hours before roster lock.
Good luck this week Grinders!
| Golfer | Sal | Odds | Mon pOwn% | Tue pOwn% | Wed pOwn% | Thu pOwn% | % Change Since Open | % Change Since Yesterday | ContR | Act Own% | Var |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory McIlroy | $12,100 | 7.335/1 | 26.07% | 25.30% | 26.58% | 0.51% | 1.28% | 23.38% | 3.20% | ||
| Dustin Johnson | $11,900 | 7.625/1 | 30.44% | 27.64% | 25.01% | -5.43% | -2.63% | 26.63% | -1.62% | ||
| Hideki Matsuyama | $10,000 | 23.5/1 | 15.34% | 14.39% | 13.42% | -1.92% | -0.97% | 9.33 | 13.82% | -0.40% | |
| Henrik Stenson | $9,800 | 20/1 | 8.13% | 15.61% | 20.94% | 12.81% | 5.33% | 12.73% | 8.21% | ||
| Paul Casey | $9,600 | 23.5/1 | 10.75% | 11.08% | 13.74% | 2.99% | 2.66% | 8.91 | 20.67% | -6.93% | |
| Adam Scott | $9,400 | 25/1 | 28.74% | 29.15% | 26.55% | -2.19% | -2.60% | 4.82 | 24.78% | 1.77% | |
| Justin Thomas | $9,300 | 30/1 | 16.80% | 16.23% | 14.85% | -1.95% | -1.38% | 7.51 | 14.44% | 0.41% | |
| Sergio Garcia | $9,100 | 33/1 | 8.83% | 9.14% | 8.71% | -0.12% | -0.43% | 13.13 | 13.25% | -4.54% | |
| Patrick Reed | $9,000 | 33.5/1 | 11.82% | 11.94% | 13.72% | 1.90% | 1.78% | 8.73 | 13.19% | 0.53% | |
| Ryan Moore | $8,900 | 61/1 | 7.22% | 7.16% | 7.00% | -0.22% | -0.16% | 16.72 | 4.68% | 2.32% | |
| Bubba Watson | $8,800 | 42/1 | 13.42% | 13.60% | 14.37% | 0.95% | 0.77% | 19.84% | -5.47% | ||
| Martin Kaymer | $8,700 | 41/1 | 11.78% | 11.67% | 11.84% | 0.06% | 0.17% | 18.53% | -6.69% | ||
| Russell Knox | $8,600 | 48/1 | 15.99% | 14.28% | 13.66% | -2.33% | -0.62% | 7.33 | 17.39% | -3.73% | |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,500 | 41/1 | 18.83% | 19.30% | 19.75% | 0.92% | 0.45% | 13.93% | 5.82% | ||
| Rickie Fowler | $8,400 | 48/1 | 9.64% | 10.89% | 10.58% | 0.94% | -0.31% | 11.56% | -0.98% | ||
| Francesco Molinari | $8,300 | 77/1 | 2.12% | 3.71% | 3.64% | 1.52% | -0.07% | 3.74% | -0.10% | ||
| Charl Schwartzel | $8,200 | 66/1 | 16.19% | 15.27% | 15.45% | -0.74% | 0.18% | 10.39% | 5.06% | ||
| Thomas Pieters | $8,100 | 46/1 | 12.40% | 12.93% | 12.98% | 0.58% | 0.05% | 10.88% | 2.10% | ||
| Danny Willett | $8,000 | 62/1 | 10.24% | 10.72% | 9.84% | -0.40% | -0.88% | 7.11% | 2.73% | ||
| Alexander Noren | $8,000 | 60/1 | 5.88% | 5.54% | 6.34% | 0.46% | 0.80% | 14.33% | -7.99% | ||
| Scott Piercy | $7,900 | 77/1 | 14.41% | 14.77% | 14.03% | -0.38% | -0.74% | 7.03 | 11.50% | 2.53% | |
| Matt Kuchar | $7,900 | 67/1 | 16.59% | 16.07% | 15.34% | -1.25% | -0.73% | 11.68% | 3.66% | ||
| Ross Fisher | $7,800 | 75/1 | 6.81% | 7.31% | 6.27% | -0.54% | -1.04% | 8.94% | -2.67% | ||
| Emiliano Grillo | $7,800 | 59/1 | 14.72% | 15.10% | 14.18% | -0.54% | -0.92% | 7.16 | 13.27% | 0.91% | |
| Daniel Berger | $7,800 | 81/1 | 11.40% | 10.52% | 9.22% | -2.18% | -1.30% | 11.48 | 5.62% | 3.60% | |
| Bernd Wiesberger | $7,700 | 56/1 | 7.84% | 7.71% | 7.93% | 0.09% | 0.22% | 18.81% | -10.88% | ||
| Lee Westwood | $7,700 | 132/1 | 3.36% | 3.69% | 3.41% | 0.05% | -0.28% | 2.37% | 1.04% | ||
| Si-Woo Kim | $7,700 | 77/1 | 12.14% | 12.74% | 12.42% | 0.28% | -0.32% | 8.45% | 3.97% | ||
| Rafa Cabrera-Bello | $7,600 | 66/1 | 13.86% | 14.33% | 14.75% | 0.89% | 0.42% | 30.72% | -15.97% | ||
| Byeong-Hun An | $7,600 | 87/1 | 3.82% | 3.43% | 3.55% | -0.27% | 0.12% | 30.61 | 4.17% | -0.62% | |
| Roberto Castro | $7,600 | 167/1 | 1.50% | 1.38% | 1.28% | -0.22% | -0.10% | 2.06% | -0.78% | ||
| Andrew Johnston | $7,500 | 181/1 | 1.91% | 2.14% | 1.94% | 0.03% | -0.20% | 1.60% | 0.34% | ||
| Branden Grace | $7,500 | 75/1 | 13.70% | 13.94% | 14.16% | 0.46% | 0.22% | 6.87 | 7.25% | 6.91% | |
| Kevin Chappell | $7,500 | 70/1 | 12.14% | 12.66% | 12.03% | -0.11% | -0.63% | 8.91 | 6.48% | 5.55% | |
| Louis Oosthuizen | $7,400 | 85/1 | 6.25% | 5.76% | 3.74% | -2.51% | -2.02% | 9.79% | -6.05% | ||
| Tyrrell Hatton | $7,400 | 85/1 | 11.73% | 10.48% | 10.20% | -1.53% | -0.28% | 12.13% | -1.93% | ||
| Jimmy Walker | $7,400 | 96/1 | 9.68% | 8.50% | 7.94% | -1.74% | -0.56% | 3.60% | 4.34% | ||
| Richard Bland | $7,300 | 242/1 | 0.59% | 0.47% | 1.64% | 1.05% | 1.17% | 9.51% | -7.87% | ||
| Alexander Levy | $7,300 | 80/1 | 9.07% | 8.40% | 8.48% | -0.59% | 0.08% | 4.17% | 4.31% | ||
| Sean O’Hair | $7,300 | 327/1 | 1.98% | 1.50% | 1.08% | -0.90% | -0.42% | 0.29% | 0.79% | ||
| Richard Sterne | $7,200 | 199/1 | 0.97% | 0.92% | 1.21% | 0.24% | 0.29% | 1.26% | -0.05% | ||
| Kevin Na | $7,200 | 171/1 | 17.09% | 15.71% | 14.60% | -2.49% | -1.11% | 7.73 | 10.39% | 4.21% | |
| J.B. Holmes | $7,200 | 105/1 | 8.14% | 10.20% | 11.79% | 3.65% | 1.59% | 5.40% | 6.39% | ||
| Thongchai Jaidee | $7,100 | 173/1 | 0.18% | 0.17% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.05% | 1.31% | -1.09% | ||
| Scott Hend | $7,100 | 129/1 | 8.17% | 8.63% | 8.73% | 0.56% | 0.10% | 10.49 | 9.59% | -0.86% | |
| Matthew Fitzpatrick | $7,100 | 224/1 | 1.24% | 1.19% | 1.01% | -0.23% | -0.18% | 2.06% | -1.05% | ||
| Gregory Bourdy | $7,000 | 446/1 | 0.79% | 0.61% | 0.51% | -0.28% | -0.10% | 4.48% | -3.97% | ||
| Hao-Tong Li | $7,000 | 190/1 | 1.81% | 1.70% | 2.54% | 0.73% | 0.84% | 2.26% | 0.28% | ||
| Shih-chang Chan | $7,000 | 849/1 | 0.90% | 0.64% | 0.44% | -0.46% | -0.20% | 86.84 | 1.00% | -0.56% | |
| Kevin Kisner | $6,900 | 88/1 | 22.85% | 23.49% | 22.40% | -0.45% | -1.09% | 4.28 | 15.30% | 7.10% | |
| Bill Haas | $6,900 | 150/1 | 6.47% | 6.31% | 5.65% | -0.82% | -0.66% | 4.85% | 0.80% | ||
| Wen-Chong Liang | $6,800 | 888/1 | 0.01% | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.05% | 0.03% | 0.17% | -0.11% | ||
| Chris Wood | $6,800 | 197/1 | 5.84% | 4.75% | 3.44% | -2.40% | -1.31% | 3.51% | -0.07% | ||
| Soren Kjeldsen | $6,800 | 221/1 | 4.37% | 4.12% | 3.71% | -0.66% | -0.41% | 4.42% | -0.71% | ||
| Shane Lowry | $6,700 | 148/1 | 7.56% | 6.34% | 6.52% | -1.04% | 0.18% | 3.60% | 2.92% | ||
| Gary Woodland | $6,700 | 96/1 | 17.92% | 20.94% | 25.87% | 7.95% | 4.93% | 4.25 | 12.56% | 13.31% | |
| Soomin Lee | $6,700 | 372/1 | 0.17% | 0.73% | 0.94% | 0.77% | 0.21% | 51.92 | |||
| Dean Burmester | $6,600 | 946/1 | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.04% | -0.03% | -0.01% | 0.63% | -0.59% | ||
| Jacques Blaauw | $6,600 | 946/1 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.02% | ||
| Jhonattan Vegas | $6,600 | 177/1 | 8.88% | 9.27% | 9.76% | 0.88% | 0.49% | 8.80 | 6.82% | 2.94% | |
| Younghan Song | $6,500 | 703/1 | 0.61% | 0.42% | 0.32% | -0.29% | -0.10% | 222.87 | 6.11% | -5.79% | |
| George Coetzee | $6,500 | 283/1 | 1.70% | 1.37% | 0.48% | -1.22% | -0.89% | 0.37% | 0.11% | ||
| Joost Luiten | $6,400 | 284/1 | 8.65% | 5.83% | 4.63% | -4.02% | -1.20% | 7.85% | -3.22% | ||
| Matthew Millar | $6,400 | 888/1 | 0.08% | 0.09% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.02% | 0.06% | 0.05% | ||
| Hui-Lin Zhang | $6,300 | 946/1 | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.06% | -0.05% | ||
| Jason Kokrak | $6,300 | 152/1 | 14.67% | 14.36% | 17.85% | 3.18% | 3.49% | 6.08% | 11.77% | ||
| Miguel Tabuena | $6,200 | 946/1 | 1.02% | 0.47% | 0.26% | -0.76% | -0.21% | 0.11% | 0.15% | ||
| Marcus Fraser | $6,200 | 768/1 | 1.68% | 0.77% | 0.64% | -1.04% | -0.13% | 72.12 | 0.66% | -0.02% | |
| Rikard Karlberg | $6,100 | 436/1 | 0.42% | 0.34% | 0.57% | 0.15% | 0.23% | 2.28% | -1.71% | ||
| Zecheng Dou | $6,100 | 888/1 | 0.18% | 0.19% | 0.18% | 0.00% | -0.01% | 2.06% | -1.88% | ||
| Jordan Zunic | $6,000 | 946/1 | 0.06% | 0.04% | 0.04% | -0.02% | 0.00% | 0.17% | -0.13% | ||
| Hideto Tanihara | $6,000 | 668/1 | 0.25% | 0.17% | 0.11% | -0.14% | -0.06% | 3.65% | -3.54% | ||
| K.T. Kim | $5,900 | 603/1 | 0.71% | 0.64% | 0.54% | -0.17% | -0.10% | 4.62% | -4.08% | ||
| Bradley Dredge | $5,900 | 451/1 | 0.83% | 0.85% | 0.79% | -0.04% | -0.06% | 6.31% | -5.52% | ||
| Jeunghun Wang | $5,800 | 715/1 | 0.47% | 0.45% | 0.34% | -0.13% | -0.11% | 166.91 | 0.94% | -0.60% | |
| Xin-Jun Zhang | $5,800 | 888/1 | 0.03% | 0.06% | 0.12% | 0.09% | 0.06% | 0.11% | 0.01% | ||
| Wu Ashun | $5,700 | 653/1 | 0.94% | 0.98% | 0.76% | -0.18% | -0.22% | 0.29% | 0.47% | ||
| Nathan Holman | $5,700 | 735/1 | 0.12% | 0.70% | 0.24% | 0.12% | -0.46% | 0.29% | -0.05% |