Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Phillies vs. Marlins Odds
| Marlins Odds | +135 |
| Phillies Odds | -155 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Tue, Oct. 3 |
| Time | 8:08 p.m. |
| TV | ESPN |
Tuesday’s four-game MLB Postseason slate will conclude with a matchup between the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies. Jesus Luzardo will get the ball for the Marlins, with Zack Wheeler on the bump for the Phillies. The first pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET from Citizens Bank Park on ESPN.
Ahead of the first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Phillies as -155 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 7.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Miami Marlins
Luzardo looks to stay hot on the mound
In his final seven turns in the rotation to end the regular season, Jesus Luzardo posted a 2.61 ERA, 2.34 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP for the Marlins. He held opposing hitters to a .189 batting average and a 3.0% barrel rate during that stretch while limiting contact on pitches in the zone. Even more impressive, five of Luzardo’s last seven outings came against playoff teams, with one of the other two starts coming against the San Diego Padres, which surged within a couple of games of a playoff berth late in the year.
Luzardo made two starts against the Phillies this summer, collecting a pair of quality starts – allowing only five earned runs in 12.1 innings of work. He is well-positioned for another strong outing on Tuesday.
Fish offense ready to swim in Game 1
Miami’s offense has been notoriously poor in recent seasons, but they performed well during the stretch run of the regular season. In September, they ranked 7th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 20th in walk percentage, and 10th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. According to the Miami Herald, All-Star second baseman Luis Arraez is also expected to be back in the lineup for the Marlins on Tuesday, giving this offense another boost.
Tanner Scott leads Marlins’ relief unit
Tanner Scott was named National League Reliever of the Month for September, collecting nine saves in 14 appearances to help Miami secure a playoff position. Since the beginning of August, Scott has allowed only three earned runs in 27.1 innings – which translates to a 0.99 ERA, 1.76 FIP, 0.70 WHIP. He was one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball, with a 32.7% strikeout rate against a meager 3.0% walk percentage in that span.
Overall, the Marlins bullpen was less impressive, ranking only 18th in FIP, 25th in WHIP, 15th in strikeout rate, and 8th in walk percentage across the final month of the regular season. The recipe for success is simple for this team in Game 1 – get Luzardo deep into the ballgame and limit the number of pitchers needed before handing the ball to Scott to close the door. Every pitcher between Luzardo and Scott is an opportunity for Philadelphia to do damage at the plate.
Philadelphia Phillies
Wheeler looking for a Game 1 win
Zack Wheeler was sensational once again in 2023, tossing another 192.0 innings as one of the most underrated starting pitchers in the big leagues. However, Wheeler did struggle down the stretch in the regular season, allowing at least three earned runs in three of his final six starts. Nevertheless, he commands the strike zone well, rarely allows barreled baseballs, and limits free passes, which gives him a high floor each time he takes the mound. Wheeler delivered a quality start in each of his three outings against the Marlins this summer and figures to put together another strong outing in Game 1.
Phillies look to take advantage of matchup against southpaw
Philadelphia posted impressive season-long numbers against southpaws, ranking 8th in OPS and 5th in ISO, and they carried those strong numbers all the way into the final month of the regular season without much of a misstep. If there are any concerns for this lineup in Game 1, it is due to the fact that the team had an unusually high number of ground balls against southpaws and not many line drives in September. Luzardo has had success against Philadelphia twice already in 2023, making it far from a certainty that this lineup will thrive on Tuesday.
What to expect from Philadelphia’s bullpen
During the final month of the regular season, Philadelphia’s arm barn ranked 6th in FIP, 8th in WHIP, 4th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage. The Phillies’ bullpen is unquestionably deeper than that of the Marlins and has the benefit of multiple high-leverage southpaws that can be used to escape potential jams in the latter frames. Manager Rob Thompson has a lot of firepower at his disposal going into these playoffs.
Marlins vs. Phillies – Picks & Predictions
Both Jesus Luzardo and Zack Wheeler have enjoyed success against their respective opponents this season, with the duo combining for five quality starts in five chances during the regular season. Though both offenses performed well down the stretch, temperatures in the 60s at first pitch favor the pitchers more than the offense. Both bullpens have their high-leverage arms rested, further supporting a low-scoring affair in this one. The under is a worthwhile risk in Game 1.
PICK: Under 7.5 (-110, Fanatics Sportsbook)