Steelers vs. Colts Odds, Picks, and Prediction

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Steelers vs. Colts Odds

Steelers Odds +2.5
Colts Odds -2.5
Over/Under 39.5
Date Mon, Nov. 28
Time 8:15 p.m.
TV ESPN

This week’s edition of Monday Night Football will feature the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Pittsburgh enters play at 3-7, needing a win to keep their slim postseason hopes alive for another week. Indianapolis has lost four of their last five games, but they can pull within two games of first place in the AFC South with a victory in this spot after the Tennessee Titans lost at home on Sunday. Oddsmakers are expecting a tightly-contested affair in this one, pricing the Colts as 2.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Per The Athletic, only three teams have thrown fewer passes this season than the Pittsburgh Steelers – something that could be a problem against an Indianapolis defense that ranks 3rd in the NFL this season in defensive Rush EPA/play. Until mid-October, Najee Harris was playing with a steel plate in his shoe, which may be partly responsible for the fact that he averaged only 3.3 yards-per-carry through the first eight weeks of the campaign. Since Pittsburgh’s bye week, Harris has totaled 189 rushing yards on 40 attempts in two games, averaging 4.7 yards-per-carry after matchups with the New Orleans Saints and Cincinnati Bengals. Still, Kenny Pickett has a disappointing 3-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio and ranks 25th in QBR among qualified signal callers this fall, making this offense difficult for bettors to trust on Monday Night Football.

In Week 1, T.J. Watt had a sack and six tackles in a major upset over the Bengals, but he suffered an injury late in the victory that kept him sidelined through the middle of November. In his absence, the Steelers ranked 31st in defensive EPA/play. In two games since Watt returned to the field, Pittsburgh ranks 13th in defensive EPA/play, with much-improved numbers against both the run and the pass. Facing an Indianapolis offensive line that ranks 28th in pass-blocking grade this season per Pro Football Focus, it would not be surprising to see Watt make a major impact on this game.

Indianapolis Colts

In his first two games as an NFL head coach, Jeff Saturday is 1-1, with a 25-20 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders and a narrow defeat against the one-loss Philadelphia Eagles. The recipe for success has been quite clear – feed the ball to Jonathan Taylor and do not commit turnovers. In two weeks, Taylor has 44 carries and the Colts have only two turnovers. In that span, Matt Ryan has managed to avoid throwing in an interception in back-to-back games for the first time all season. The larger concern this evening for this group will be the play of the offensive line against a Pittsburgh pass-rush that has 11 sacks in three games with T.J. Watt on the field this year.

Defensively, the Colts are fundamentally sound, but dealing with some question marks from a health perspective in Week 12. DeForest Buckner logged a full practice on Saturday, but had been questionable throughout the week with a rib injury and an illness. Buckner is second on the team with 5.5 sacks in 2022. Kwity Paye is third on the roster in sacks, with four this fall – but will be on the sidelines in this one with an ankle injury. Linebacker Zaire Franklin leads the team in tackles, but was downgraded to questionable on Sunday with an illness – notable, considering that the flu has ravaged the Colts’ locker room this week. Adding to the litany of injuries is the team leader in sacks, Yannick Ngakoue, who has been dealing with a back injury and did not practice on Saturday.

Steelers vs. Colts – Picks & Predictions

Bettors will need to monitor the final injury report before locking-in any large wagers on this contest, but the potential absence of a number of key defenders for the Indianapolis Colts could be extremely problematic. Though the Pittsburgh Steelers have only three wins this season, they are 2-1 with T.J. Watt on the field – making them a live dog in this spot. If the Colts are without any of DeForest Buckner, Zaire Franklin, or Yannick Ngakoue, this could be a great spot to grab the Steelers at plus-money.

PICK: Steelers ML (+125, PointsBet)

Image Credit: Imagn

About the Author

nickgalaida
Nick Galaida (nickgalaida)

A failed high school pitcher, Nick Galaida discovered that he has a higher aptitude for analyzing and writing about sports than he does playing them. To his friends, he is better known as “The Commish.” When he’s not organizing a fantasy league, placing a bet, or writing an article, he’s probably nose-deep in a book—further illustrating the point that his niche in this world is as a nerd rather than an athlete. Follow Nick on Twitter – @CommishFilmRoom