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The Western Conference Finals will officially tip off on Wednesday night. Needless to say, few saw this matchup coming when the postseason began. The Dallas Mavericks – fresh off of their elimination of the top-seeded Thunder – will head north for Game 1 tonight in Minnesota. The T-Wolves, meanwhile, just dethroned the defending champion Nuggets with a stirring comeback victory in Sunday’s Game 7.
This should be a fabulous matchup, and the Wolves are listed as slight 4.5-point home favorites in tonight’s series opener. Let’s dive right in and build a winning PrizePicks lineup, shall we?
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Now let’s go through our NBA predictions to help make a PrizePicks entry for today.
NBA PrizePicks Predictions Today
Dereck Lively More Than 13.5 Points + Rebounds
The Mavs made a big mid-season trade for ex-Wizard Daniel Gafford, but rookie Dereck Lively was the more impactful of Dallas’ centers in the team’s series win over Oklahoma City in the last round. The Duke product posted modest averages of 8.8 points and 6.9 rebounds per game during the regular season, but he’s been playing in a reserve role in the postseason.
In 23 minutes per game in the 6 games vs. OKC, Lively averaged 7.7 points and 7.8 rebounds. Lively posted double-doubles in each of the last 2 games, and he logged a series-high 30 minutes in the decisive Game 6. Against a Minnesota team that starts two centers with a third, Naz Reid, playing a significant role off the bench, Lively will be heavily involved in the Mavs’ plans again in this series.
13.5 combined points and rebounds is just too low, even if Lively doesn’t play 30 minutes again off the bench.
- PrizePicks PLAY: More Than 13.5 Points + Rebounds
Luka Doncic More/Less Than 17.5 Rebounds + Assists
The Mavs have advanced to the NBA’s final four despite Luka Doncic having endured some offensive struggles in these playoffs. After contributing nearly 34 points, 10 assists, and 9 rebounds per game during the regular season, Luka’s down to an average of 27.3 points per game through 12 playoff outings. The ancillary stats are still there, however, as he’s averaging in excess of 9 rebounds and assists (each) per game.
Luka has been dealing with lingering knee soreness throughout the postseason, which may explain his shooting struggles. Fortunately for the Mavericks, he’s still finding other ways to contribute. Doncic averaged 10.5 assists through two regular-season meetings with Minnesota, but he was held to just 6 boards per game. That’s a tiny sample, but the Wolves were also one of the league’s better rebounding teams.
That said, Doncic would have to merely hit his rebound and assist averages in order to top 17.5 combined boards and dimes in tonight’s Game 1. In a game with a tight spread, I expect him to get there.
- PrizePicks PLAY: More Than 17.5 Rebounds + Assists
Anthony Edwards More/Less Than 3.5 Rebounds
That the Wolves came back to win Game 7 in Denver was a surprise considering Anthony Edwards struggled offensively. Fortunately, his teammates were there to pick up the slack.
In the 7-game series vs. Denver, Edwards averaged 5.1 rebounds per game, which was a shade below the 5.4 caroms he averaged during the regular season. Edwards also averaged 40.4 minutes per game in that series, and we have him projected to play 44 this evening. That may sound like a lofty number, but he totaled at least 44 minutes in 3 of the final 4 games against Denver.
3.5 rebounds is an oddly low expectation for Edwards, especially considering he’s likely to be on the floor for about 92% of the game.
- PrizePicks PLAY: More Than 3.5 Rebounds
More PrizePicks Predictions
- Rudy Gobert – More Than 12.5 Points
- PJ Washington – More Than 12 Points
- Derrick Jones – More Than 8.5 Points
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