Rams vs. 49ers Betting Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rams vs. 49ers Odds
| Rams Odds | +3 |
| 49ers Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Thursday, December 12, 2024 |
| Time | 8:15 PM ET |
| TV | Prime Video |
This evening, Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams will visit Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers for a marquee Thursday Night Football matchup. Both teams enter play desperately needing a win to keep pace with the 1st place Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 PM ET on Prime Video.
Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have priced the 49ers as 3-point home favorites on the spread. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks.
According to Evan Abrams of The Action Network, favorites have dominated Thursday Night Football in recent years, going 54-18 SU (75%). Purdy is 7-1 SU in night games during his career but will be missing a number of key pieces of his supporting cast as he looks to keep the aforementioned trends going strong.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
Stafford, Rams looking to stay hot
The Rams entered their bye week a disappointing 1-4, but they have reentered the playoff conversation in the NFC as a result of a 6-2 record across the last 8 games. Since Week 7, Stafford and company rank 7th in success rate and 10th in EPA/play on the offensive side of the ball thanks to one of the league’s most efficient aerial attacks.
Since WR Puka Nacua returned to a full workload in Week 10, the Rams ranks 5th in success rate through the air and 4th in success rate on the ground. Nacua leads all NFL wide receivers in targets, receptions, and 1st downs during that time period and has been the clear WR1 in the passing game. Nacua will be tested tonight, facing a San Francisco defense that ranks 4th in DVOA against opposing WR1s this season, but this group has a number of quality contributors who are capable of stepping up if Nacua is slowed down.
Durant ruled OUT
CB Cobie Durant has been ruled out due to a chest injury. Durant, while not a star at his position, is a notable loss for this Rams defense, which already has LB Troy Reeder and S John Johnson on injured reserve. Durant leads the Rams in passes defensed this season, in addition to having a sack, interception, and a forced fumble. He’s played at least 41 snaps in each of the Rams’ 13 games.
Since Week 8, the Rams defense ranks 18th in success rate but only 26th in EPA/play – an indication that they have had trouble limiting big plays. The Rams have been a top-10 run defense on a down-to-down basis but rank only 16th in EPA/play during that stretch. Their pass defense has been a major liability in both regards, ranking 28th in success rate and 27th in EPA/play.
San Francisco 49ers Preview
What to expect from shorthanded San Francisco offense
San Francisco will be without RB Christian McCaffrey, RB Jordan Mason, WR Brandon Aiyuk, C Jon Feliciano, and LT Trent Williams. 3rd-string RB Isaac Guerendo suffered a foot injury this past weekend and didn’t practice on Monday or Tuesday. Guerendo was able to log a limited session yesterday and is trending towards playing this evening.
From Week 1 to Week 6, with Aiyuk and Williams healthy, San Francisco’s offense ranked 10th in success rate and 7th in EPA/play. Since Aiyuk last played a full workload in Week 6, the 49ers’ offense ranks 15th in success rate and 15th in EPA/play – even having McCaffrey, Mason, and Williams available for a number of those games.
WR Jauan Jennings has stepped up in a big way during the latter portion of the season, leading the team in targets, receptions, and receiving touchdowns since Week 8 in games that Purdy has played. Notably, Jennings has 31 first-read targets in that stretch, which is 17 more than any other San Francisco pass catcher.
Bosa, Greenlaw listed as QUESTIONABLE
EDGE Nick Bosa has missed each of San Francisco’s last 3 games due to multiple ailments but was able to log a limited practice on Wednesday and is officially listed as questionable. From Week 1 to Week 11, with Bosa healthy, San Francisco’s defense ranked 17th in success rate and 12th in EPA/play. From Week 12 to Week 14, they ranked 24th in success rate and 24th in EPA/play and allowed 28.7 points per game in that stretch.
If Bosa is able to return to the field, this unit could be significantly improved from what we have seen in recent weeks, especially with LB Dre Greenlaw also expected to make his season debut. According to The Athletic, Greenlaw will be activated from the physically unable to perform list ahead of this evening’s clash against the Rams. Greenlaw ranked 2nd on the team in tackles last season but tore his Achilles tendon in the Super Bowl, which has kept him on the sidelines to date this season.
Rams vs. 49ers Prediction
San Francisco’s season hasn’t gone according to plan, to say the least. Nevertheless, this is still a very talented football team, even with the bodies piling up on their injured reserve. As long as EDGE Nick Bosa and RB Isaac Guerendo are able to suit up, this is a group that is capable of taking care of business in front of their home fans, as we saw last week when they outgained the Bears by 290 yards of total offense.
PICK: 49ers -3 (-102, DraftKings)
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