Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Prediction & Pick
Rams at Lions Odds
| Rams Odds | +4.5 |
| Lions Odds | -4.5 |
| Over/Under | 53.5 |
| Date | Sun, Sep. 8 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
Week 1 of the NFL regular season features an exciting Sunday Night Football matchup, showcasing an NFC playoff rematch between the Los Angeles Rams and Detroit Lions. Jared Goff and the Lions emerged victorious 24-23 in last season’s memorable postseason battle. Matthew Stafford and the Rams will be looking for revenge this evening at Ford Field.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Lions as 4.5-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 53.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Los Angeles Rams Preview
What to expect from Matthew Staford, offense
The most notable injury news to follow for the Rams’ offense as we approach kickoff is the status of star right tackle Rob Havenstein. Havenstein has been limited at practice all week with an ankle injury and is listed as questionable as of this writing. Havenstein finished 4th among 79 tackles in run blocking grade in 2023, per PFF, and allowed only a 4.4% pressure rate in pass protection. If Havenstein is unable to go, Warren McClendon Jr. will start at right tackle. McClendon was a 5th round pick last summer out of Georgia and allowed a 12.5% pressure rate in pass protection as a rookie in limited snaps.
Last year, Matthew Stafford had a 71.1% completion rate and averaged 8.4 yards per attempt from a clean pocket compared to a 44.0% completion rate and 6.2 yards per attempt when under pressure. This will be an area of the game to watch.
Rams defense beginning post-Aaron Donald era
This past offseason, future Hall of Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald retired. Of course, that means the Rams now have a major void on the defensive line, losing Donald’s 8 sacks and 65 quarterback pressures. They are also losing his ability to make life easier on his teammates. Donald drew a borderline uncountable number of double and triple teams, which unquestionably helped Kobie Turner earn 9 sacks and Byron Young earn 8 sacks.
Los Angeles has the added difficulty in Week 1 of playing without their new and prized free agent addition, safety Darious Williams. Williams was placed on injured reserve earlier this week, leaving the back end of their secondary unit uncomfortably thin on talent. Williams was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, playing for the Jaguars a season ago and ranking 5th out of 126 players at his position in coverage grade, per PFF.
Detroit Lions Preview
Detroit offense looking to replicate stellar 2023 season
Despite being widely viewed as one of the best head coaching candidates on the market, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to return to the Lions for the 2024 season – a major boon for Jared Goff and company. Last fall, Detroit’s offensive ranked 5th in DVOA, 8th in EPA/play, and 7th in success rate.
The only two notable losses for the Lions this past offseason were WR Josh Reynolds and LG Jonah Jackson. Still, the wide receiver room has star Amon-Ra St. Brown to stabilize the unit, with upside in former 1st round draft pick Jameson Williams. The offensive line is in more than capable hands with Kevin Zeitler coming over from Baltimore in free agency. This has all the makings of a top-10 unit again this fall.
Lions hoping for improved performance from secondary unit
If only looking at season-long statistics, it appeared as though Detroit’s secondary unit was a major liability last year. However, that was only the case after the unit became ravaged by injury. From Week 1 to Week 9, their pass defense ranked 6th in DVOA, compared to 25th in DVOA from Week 10 to the end of the regular season.
Detroit addressed this vulnerability in a big way this past offseason, adding Carlton Davis via trade and spending a pair of top draft picks to help bring more reliable talent to this group on a weekly basis. The only point of concern heading into Week 1 is the safety position, with both Ifeatu Melifonwu and backup Loren Strickland unlikely to be on the field.
Rams at Lions Prediction
It’s not exactly fun to root for an under on the first Sunday Night Football game of the year, but there are reasons to believe that this could be a lower scoring affair. The Rams’ offensive line could struggle in this matchup if RT Rob Havenstein is unable to go. His replacement is a major downgrade in talent. Detroit isn’t exactly thin on talent in the passing game, but the absence of a strong WR2 behind Amon-Ra St. Brown could lead to some inefficiencies early on in the season as they look to find another reliable weapon on the outside.
Both team’s dealing with safety issues is a concern, but neither team plays at a quick pace, and it’s possible we see Detroit try to control the clock a little bit more with a strong running game at home. This is a tall number for any NFL game – even a game inside on primetime.
PICK: Under 54 (-125, Bet365)
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