Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros - Game 1 Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Rangers vs. Astros Odds
| Rangers Odds | +120 |
| Astros Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 |
| Date | Sun, Oct. 15 |
| Time | 8:15 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
On Sunday, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will play Game 1 of this year’s American League Championship Series. This has turned into an annual event for the Astros, which have made baseball’s version of the Final Four for the seventh consecutive year. In the series opener, Texas will hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery, who will be opposed by Justin Verlander for Houston.
Ahead of first pitch, oddsmakers have priced the Astros as -140 favorites on the moneyline. The total for this contest is set at over/under 8.5 runs.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where baseball bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Texas Rangers
Jordan Montgomery gets the ball in Game 1 for Texas
Jordan Montgomery had a strong second half of the regular season after he was acquired by the Rangers at the trade deadline. Across his final 11 turns in the rotation, he posted a 2.79 ERA, 3.27 FIP, and 1.09 WHIP.
He was dominant in his first postseason start this October, delivering seven innings of shutout baseball against the Tampa Bay Rays, but he struggled against the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round. Nevertheless, it is evident that he has earned the trust of manager Bruce Bochy, who has allowed Montgomery to throw at least 88 pitches in both of his outings so far during these playoffs.
Montgomery should have a relatively long leash in Game 1 as he looks to bounce back from a disappointing showing against the Orioles.
Texas offense firing on all cylinders
In five playoff games this fall, Texas is averaging 6.4 runs per game. The Rangers have scored at least seven runs three times and have consistently put pressure on opposing pitching staffs, even in the rare instances when the bats have not produced runs. In Game 1 against Tampa Bay, Texas scored only four runs, but they had 13 at bats with runners-in-scoring-position (RISP). In Game 1 against Baltimore, Texas scored only three runs, but they had eight at bats with RISP and left 10 men-on-base.
The Rangers have not played a baseball game since Tuesday, which puts them at risk of experiencing rust in the early going tonight. However, the talent in this lineup from top-to-bottom is undeniable and should manifest itself sooner rather than later in this series against the Astros.
Rangers’ bullpen a concern in ALCS
By far, the biggest vulnerability on this Texas roster is their bullpen. During September, the Rangers’ arm barn ranked 23rd in FIP, 17th in WHIP, 11th in strikeout rate, and 19th in walk percentage.
From July 1 to the end of the regular season, Jose Leclerc and Aroldis Chapman were the only two permanent members of this unit to post a FIP below 4.05. As a result, Bochy is unlikely to be as aggressive as his peers when it comes to his bullpen usage in this series. In the first two rounds of these playoffs, Bochy has exhibited patience with his starters even when they have not had their best stuff. Texas’ championship hopes necessitate that their bullpen does not have a major impact in the ALCS.
Houston Astros
Justin Verlander gets the ball in Game 1 for Houston
Justin Verlander has earned a reputation as a big-game pitcher over the course of his career, and for good reason. On Sunday, Verlander will make his 37th career postseason appearance and his 36th start. Since debuting in the early 2000s, Verlander has compiled a 17-11 postseason record, which includes a win during the Wild Card round this October against the Minnesota Twins.
However, it is worth noting that Verlander is no longer the bonafide ace that he has been in recent seasons. After being reacquired by the Astros at the deadline this summer, Verlander posted a 3.31 ERA, 3.92 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP across 11 turns in the rotation. His strikeout numbers and swing-and-miss ability have both shown signs of aging. From 2022 to 2023, Verlander lost a notch of velocity, which has led to more hard contact, more overall contact allowed, and far fewer swings from opposing batters on pitches outside of the strike zone.
Verlander remains a high-IQ pitcher who can produce quality results with less than elite stuff, but there are reasons for concern heading into Game 1 against Texas. Verlander walked three batters against Minnesota, but he was the beneficiary of some well-timed ground ball outs to get him out of jams. He will have a much tougher test to begin the ALCS.
What to expect from the Houston offense
The Astros’ offense struggled against left-handed pitching down the stretch of the regular season, but be careful before deciding to fade their bats in this matchup. During the second half of the campaign, Houston ranked 2nd in OPS and 1st in ISO against southpaws, displaying their patented high-contact, disciplined approach at the dish. The larger body of work from this group suggests that they are as dangerous as ever, and if Jose Abreu is finally coming to life — look out.
Astros’ bullpen lacking familiar depth
Though Houston once again finds themselves in familiar territory, in the midst of a deep playoff run, their roster is not as deep as it has been at other points in their dynasty. Notably, their bullpen is much thinner than in past seasons.
In 2022, the Astros had seven different relievers throw at least 16.1 innings while posting a 3.00 FIP or better during the final two months of the regular season. In 2023, only two relievers met those standards. Only five of Houston’s relievers managed a sub-4.00 FIP with at least 16.0 innings of work across the final two months of the regular season while working in a meaningful role in 2023.
Houston’s bullpen performed adequately against a weak-hitting Minnesota offense, but they will be put to the test in this series against a Texas offense that is much more capable of exploiting this weakness.
Rangers vs. Astros – Picks & Predictions
Much has been made this October of the negative impact that too much rest has had on offenses. Texas did not have to deal with this phenomenon in either of the first two rounds of the playoffs due to them not winning their division. However, they have had a season-high five days of rest ahead of first pitch tonight following a sweep of the Baltimore Orioles in the Wild Card round. Verlander is not what he used to be, but he is capable of putting together a quality outing on Sunday. If Jordan Montgomery can pitch reasonably well, the under in the first five innings has a good chance to cash.
PICK: Under 4.5 – First 5 Innings (-105, Fanatics Sportsbook)