Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Chargers Odds, Prediction, & Pick
Ravens vs. Chargers Odds
| Ravens Odds | -3 |
| Chargers Odds | +3 |
| Over/Under | 48.5 |
| Date | Sun, Nov. 26 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
This week’s edition of Sunday Night Football will feature Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Entering play, Baltimore tied for the 1-seed in the AFC playoff picture at 8-3. Los Angeles is 4-6, but only one game back in the loss column for the final Wild Card position in the conference.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Ravens as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 48.5 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson making case for MVP
Lamar Jackson will never have gaudy passing numbers, but he remains in the thick of MVP conversations this fall as a result of his ability to make plays on the ground and through the air. Jackson ranks 8th among qualified quarterbacks in QBR in addition to having 535 rushing yards and five scores with his legs.
Jackson ranks 3rd in the NFL in completion percentage from a clean pocket in 2023, which should translate to an abundance of completions this evening against a Chargers defense that had the 5th-lowest defensive pressure rate in the league in Week 11 and the lowest defensive pressure rate of any team in Week 10.
Marlon Humphrey listed as QUESTIONABLE
Cornerback Marlon Humphrey was a limited participant in practice each day this week for the Ravens, resulting in him being listed as questionable for Sunday Night Football. Humphrey has been an integral component of Baltimore’s defense this season, ranking above average in coverage, against the run, and as a pass rusher at his position, per PFF.
Humphrey missed Baltimore’s Week 10 contest against the Bengals, but this unit benefitted from a Joe Burrow injury, which kept this group from being tested too much through the air. In Week 11, Justin Herbert presents a much tougher test than Jake Browning, which makes the status of Humphrey worth following throughout the day. Inactive reports are released 90 minutes prior to kickoff, at which point a final decision will be made.
Los Angeles Chargers
What to expect from Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert has been one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks this season from a clean pocket, ranking 3rd in passer rating, 5th in yards per attempt, and 4th-best in turnover-worthy play rate in such situations since Week 6. No other play has a better touchdown-to-interception ratio from a clean pocket in that span than Herbert, who has 10 touchdown passes and only one interception.
The larger issues for Herbert have come when he is under duress. Since Week 6, he ranks 23rd out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passer rating, 20th in completion percentage, and 19th in yards per attempt when under pressure. Facing pressure, he has only two touchdown passes and three interceptions. Baltimore has finished in the top-seven in defensive pressure rate each of the last three weeks, which does not bode well for Herbert in this matchup.
Chargers defense missing Joey Bosa
Edge defender Joey Bosa left last week’s loss against the Packers early due to injury and was subsequently placed on injured reserve. Bosa ranks 15th out of 100 players at his position in pass rush grade this fall, per PFF, and he ranks 24th at his position against the run. His absence is a tremendous loss for this unit. Only four defenses generated less pressure than the Chargers last week. Los Angeles ranked dead-last in defensive pressure rate in Week 10.
Ravens vs. Chargers – Picks & Predictions
In the first half of games this season, the Ravens rank 6th in offensive EPA / play, 1st in offensive success rate, 1st in defensive EPA / play, and 1st in defensive success rate. The Chargers have been far less effective early in games, ranking 5th in offensive EPA / play, 18th in offensive success rate, 25th in defensive EPA / play, and 28th in defensive success rate in the first half in 2023.
If Baltimore is able to get pressure on Justin Herbert early in this contest, the Chargers are likely to be facing an uphill battle heading into the second half of this game. Trust Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in a spot that they have consistently delivered this year.
PICK: Ravens ML – 1st Half (-142, Fanatics Sportsbook)