Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview: Odds, Prediction & Pick
Ravens at Chiefs Odds
| Ravens Odds | +3 |
| Chiefs Odds | -3 |
| Over/Under | 47 |
| Date | Thu, Sep. 5 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. |
| TV | NBC |
The NFL is BACK! Regular season football returns on Thursday night with a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s AFC Championship Game between the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs. Lamar Jackson is fresh off of his 2nd career regular season MVP award, and Patrick Mahomes is coming off of his 3rd Super Bowl MVP award in the last 5 seasons, which should make for some great opening night entertainment.
Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Chiefs as 3-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47 points.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Baltimore Ravens Preview
What to expect from Ravens’ offense on opening night
In 2023, there were few teams in the NFL better than Baltimore on the offensive side of the ball. The Ravens finished the regular season 4th in points scored, 4th in DVOA, 6th in EPA/play and 4th in success rate. They were top 6 in EPA/play and success rate through the air and on the ground, giving them one of the more balanced and unpredictable offenses in the league.
That being said, this offense will look a little bit different in 2024. A significant portion of Baltimore’s offensive success last fall was a direct result of their offensive line ranking 6th best in adjusted line yards. Baltimore’s offense benefited from the most yards gained before contact in the entire NFL. Heading into Week 1, the Ravens will be without 3 of last year’s starters from this unit – LG John Simpson, RG Kevin Zeitler, and RT Morgan Moses.
Simpson was better than the league average at his position, Zeitler was elite in pass protection, and Moses was an all around asset. They will be replaced by rookie LG Andrew Vorhees, human turnstile Daniel Faalele, and rookie RT Roger Rosengarten. This unit is undeniably down a notch this season, and it could have significant consequences for Lamar Jackson, who has historically not been great at avoiding sacks when under pressure during his career.
Can Baltimore withstand the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald?
Baltimore’s defense led the NFL in DVOA in 2023, ranked 2nd in EPA/play, and 6th in success rate. They also led the league in total sacks and ranked 4th in sacks per pass attempt while allowing a league low 16.5 points per game. Even more impressive, they accomplished all of that with Marlon Humphrey playing in only 10 games and Marcus Williams being healthy for only 11 games.
This unit is still loaded with top tier talent, but it’s worth noting that they lost 13 combined sacks with Jadeveon Clowney and Patrick Queen leaving town. They also lost their big-brained defensive coordinator, Mike Macdonald, who left for a head coaching gig in Seattle. There are legitimate question marks as to whether this group can replicate last season’s 18 takeaways, which was the 3rd best mark in the NFL.
The new defensive coordinator has big shoes to fill as a first-time coordinator in 2024. He has a lot of talent to work with, but there could be growing pains here.
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Mahomes, Kelce begin quest for 3rd consecutive Super Bowl
No team in NFL history (not even the great dynasty in New England led by Tom Brady) has ever managed to win 3 consecutive Super Bowls, but Patrick Mahomes and company will have an opportunity to do just that. The band is mostly back together, with Andy Reid, both coordinators, Mahomes, and Travis Kelce all returning this season, giving the Chiefs a rare level of organizational continuity.
Still, this roster isn’t perfect, and even Mahomes isn’t perfect. The interior of the offensive line might be the best in football, but the two starting tackle positions are a significant red flag. LT Donovan Smith departed this past offseason and has been replaced by rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was viewed by scouts as more of a developmental project than a Day 1 starter when he was selected in the 2nd round this past summer. RT Jawaan Taylor allowed an unimpressive 6.5% pressure rate in 2023, per PFF, and finished the year ranked below average at his position in pass protection.
There is also the question of what we are going to get out of Kelce this fall, who will be 35 years old next month. In the last 25 years, there are only 17 instances of a 34+ year old tight end having 500+ receiving yards during the regular season. No tight end has ever topped 1,000 receiving yards this late into their career, and that includes all time legends, such as Tony Gonzalez, Shannon Sharpe, Jason Witten, and Rob Gronkowski. Though some might argue that Kelce is an outlier, it’s worth noting that his yards after the catch have declined each of the last three seasons, and his average depth of target has declined in each of the last five seasons, down from 9.2 yards in 2018 to 6.7 yards in 2023.
Mahomes is capable of elevating the play of those around him, as we saw in last year’s run to the Super Bowl. It’s simply worth pointing out that this is far from a loaded unit when looking beyond the quarterback position.
Chiefs’ defense looking to replicate strong 2023 campaign
Mahomes has undeniably carried the majority of the burden for Kansas City during the last half decade of their dynasty, but the balance of weight shifted in a considerable way in 2023. The Chiefs’ defense finally stepped up, finishing the regular season ranked 7th in DVOA, 6th in EPA/play, and 4th in success rate. The defense wasn’t immune to allowing an occasional big play on the ground, but they were mostly solid on a down-to-down basis, and the secondary was elite.
L’Jarius Sneed and Mike Edwards both departed from the secondary for other teams this past offseason, but Kansas City has capable replacements at those two positions. They also have their defensive coordinator back again in 2024, which can’t be emphasized enough.
The Chiefs have one of the better linebacker corps in the NFL, with star talent on the defensive line and in the secondary. This group should have little trouble finishing in the top 10 on this side of the ball for the second consecutive season.
Ravens at Chiefs Prediction
This is an obvious and clear revenge spot for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, but all the motivation in the world doesn’t make it easy to go into Arrowhead and come away with a win. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are 46-15 (75.4%) SU at home since the beginning of 2018, including 12-7 (63.2%) SU when favored by 6 points or fewer in that span, per Clevta. It’s going to be difficult for the Ravens to generate points consistently in this game given the significant turnover on their offensive line coupled with the fact that they are going against a strong Chiefs defense. Mahomes and company should be able to come away with a win here.
PICK: Chiefs -3 (+100, Bet365)
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