Rays vs. Red Sox Odds, Preview, & Prediction — Tuesday, August 10th
Rays vs. Red Sox Odds
| Tampa Bay Rays Odds | +104 |
| Boston Red Sox | -122 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Date | Tuesday, Aug. 10 |
| Time | 7:10 pm ET |
| TV | NESN |
| Odds accurate as of Tuesday at BetMGM | |
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This evening at Fenway Park, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Boston Red Sox will begin a highly-anticipated three-game series. Oddsmakers have the division-leading Rays as slight underdogs in this betting matchup. The starting pitching matchup tonight will feature Luis Patino for Tampa Bay against Eduardo Rodriguez.
In their last 10 games, these two teams have trended in completely opposite directions. Entering play, the Rays have won eight of their last 10 games, whereas the Red Sox have lost eight of their last 10 contests. Boston is in desperate need of a strong showing during this series, if they want to keep their American League East division champion hopes alive.
Rays vs. Red Sox AL East Preview
Patino has posted a 4.42 ERA, 3.77 xERA, and a 4.31 FIP in nine appearances this year, including seven starts. He owns an electric fastball that sits in the 79th percentile in the league in velocity. Patino uses that pitch 52.4 percent of the time, and complements it with a slider that he deploys 29.8 percent of the time, while occasionally mixing in a changeup, sinker, or curveball. In his seven starts, he has been extremely unpredictable—allowing four earned runs or more on three occasions, but also turning in three starts when he has allowed one earned run or less.
Boston’s offense was elite for the entirety of the first-half of the campaign, but they have struggled recently, ranking 20th in OPS, 25th in ISO, and 24th in strikeout-percentage over the last two weeks. Patino has an opportunity to deliver a strong outing tonight, but he remains an extremely volatile pitcher, which makes it difficult to recommend bettors put their faith in him in a high-pressure contest on the road.
Rodriguez has posted the worst ERA of his career, 5.33, in 2021. However, his 3.38 FIP is the best of his career, and his 3.61 xERA ranks in the 67th percentile amongst qualified pitchers. Rodriguez has been cruelly victimized by a .367 BABIP, despite ranking in the 82nd percentile in average exit-velocity, 71st percentile in hard-hit rate, and the 56th percentile in barrel-percentage. He has continued to exhibit plus-stuff with an 80th percentile strikeout-percentage and a 69th percentile walk-rate. Rodriguez generates a healthy amount of swings-and-misses and generally keeps batters off balance in the box. Simply put, he has been the most unlucky pitcher in baseball this year.
Betting Picks & Predictions — Tuesday, August 10th
Fortunately for Rodriguez, he has an opportunity to put his poor luck behind him in this one against a Rays lineup that struggles mightily against left-handed pitching. The addition of Nelson Cruz has helped Tampa Bay against southpaws, but he has not been a magic elixir to this point. Thus far in 2021, the Rays rank 26th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, and 28th in strikeout-percentage against lefties. This is a very favorable matchup for Rodriguez and the Red Sox.
Boston is coming off of a heartbreaking 9-8 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on Sunday—a game in which they led 7-2. The Red Sox had an off-day yesterday, but will be eager to get that poor taste out of their mouths this evening. Bettors should consider Boston on the moneyline at reasonable odds.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-122)
Rays vs. Red Sox Over/Under 10 Runs
The line on this game opened at 9.5 and has been inexplicably bet up to 10 runs as of this writing. Patino is always a risk to get hit hard on the mound, but he has been equally likely to turn in a gem through his first seven starts. If trying to pick a probable outcome, bettors should lean towards Patino having a good outing tonight against a Red Sox lineup that has ranked in the bottom-third of baseball in most offensive categories since the All-Star break. Rodriguez draws an extremely favorable matchup against a Rays lineup that is still yet to prove that it can hit left-handed pitching. The latter frames should be extremely low-scoring with both teams having yesterday off to rest their bullpen. Over the last 30 days, the Rays have the best bullpen FIP in baseball and the Red Sox rank 11th. Expect a low-scoring affair in this one. The under at its current price is arguably the most valuable play available on the MLB slate tonight.
Pick: Under 10 (-110)
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