2023 RBC Canadian Open: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown
Well, business really picked up on Tuesday in the world of golf. On the heels of one of the most shocking developments in the history of golf, the PGA Tour tries to keep focus on the RBC Canadian Open. With PGA Tour players miffed, how will they fare up north at Oakdale Golf and Country Club? As a big favorite, will Rory win his third consecutive Canadian national championship? Let’s start with odds before breaking down the course and a few players to keep our eyes on this week.
2023 RBC Canadian Open at BetMGM Sportsbook
At the time of this writing – June 6th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.
The RBC Canadian Open will feature 165 players with the top 65 and ties making the cut. While the field is a bit weaker relative to elevated events, the title sponsor plus the presence of so many strong Canadian golfers makes the field rather competitive.
Rory McIlroy won the last two RBC Canadian Open Championships – separated by two cancellations due to COVID. McIlroy’s victory last year came with an enormous wave of praise as the PGA seemed to be combatting the LIV Golf tour. Who knows what impact this week’s news about the merger will have on McIlroy and other golfers.
Sam Burns, Matt Fitzpatrick, and Tyrrell Hatton join Cameron Young as the next tier on the board. Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, and Shane Lowry join Hatton form overseas while plenty of golfers will play in front of their country this week.
There are several Canadians in the field – headlined by Valero Texas Open winner, Corey Conners. Adam Hadwin, Adam Svensson, Nick Taylor, and Taylor Pendrith rest on a list of players hoping to hoist a trophy on their home soil. Based on the raucous nature of last year’s event, a Canadian victory would send lasting shockwaves through the galleries at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.
Given the circumstances surrounding the merger between PGA and PIF, keep your eyes fixed on the news for any developments about withdrawals or changes to the field. If a big chip falls, the odds board could drastically shift before Thursday.
2023 RBC Canadian Open Betting Preview
- Course: Oakdale Golf and Country Club
- Date: June 8-11
- Par: 72
- Yardage: 7,264
- Greens: Bentgrass and Poa Mix
A quick glance at the official scorecard for this week’s Canadian Open leaves us with one prediction. Birdies, birdies, and more birdies will be had at a relatively short Par 72 course. There are twelve Par 4s on the course, three Par 5s, and three Par 3s. Five of the Par 4s are below 500 yards.
The course is a classical parkland layout that does not feature much but straight halls. There are only two doglegs with sixteen holes that are straight. The course is tree-lined with undulating fairways as well as a mix of large and small greens with plenty of potential tricky pin positions for players.
The rough is reported as 4-5” thick with greens that slope plenty. This is possibly the greatest defense for the course aside from the sloped greens protected by sand. Reports seem to point to the front nine being more difficult than the back. That said, with the scorecard featuring so many shorter holes and players able to potentially club down, we should assume birdies are going to be plentiful.
I will be targeting players that rank high in BOB% and will likely put a greater emphasis on putting this week. Fairways could be more important given how short the course is, while SG:Approach seems like a reasonable statistic to weigh heavily as usual. We can include sand saves, but my gut is telling me PGA Pros are going to take this course apart.
Let’s take a look at a few players that are coming in with good form for the week.
Golfers To Watch This Week
Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.
Tyrrell Hatton +1100
File this under the category, “mild takes.” Tyrrell Hatton could be in the best form of all golfers in this field over the course of his last 8-9 tournaments. Hatton sits inside the top 10 in SG: Approach, T2G, Putting, Ball Striking, and OTT.
He is coming off of five top twenties and is priced accordingly relative to his form. While this price is tough to swallow, the number feels like a bargain relative to 5-1 for Rory this week. Hatton makes sense as a OAD play if you still have him as well as a strong play for matchups or 3-balls given his recent form. Can we take Hatton over Rory?
Sahith Theegala +2800
Theegala can be found around 30-1 at most sports betting sites at the time of this writing. While he doesn’t necessarily check any of our boxes specifically, Theegala continues to grind into weekends and contend in some of the stronger fields.
Theegala ranks first in the field in birdies gained and second in BOB gained in this week’s field. If we are operating under the assumption that the winning score is in the high teens, Theegala must be considered giving his scoring potential.
I think Theegala makes for a good starting point for our card given the depth in the 50-1 range.
Adam Svensson +5000
On his home turf, Svensson comes in as one of the better birdiemakers in the field. Ranking 14th in BOB gained, Svensson can light this course up and go low on any given day of the tournament.
While his ARG game has not been stellar, Svensson rests in the top 30 of most of our relevant stat categories. Give him a narrative street bump for playing at home, and 50-1 feels pretty nice. You can find his odds elevated at a few sports betting sites and get him closer to 60-1.
I think Svensson is a great play as an outright and a sneaky OAD play. He also makes plenty of sense in DFS for his scoring potential as well as an interesting FRL play. Svensson is one of my favorite plays of the week.
Eric Cole +6600
Finally, we arrive at another one of my favorite plays of the week. He served us well in some second and third round matchups last week and cashed a T40 bet. Eric Cole continues to offer upside at his price despite stacking up well against the field in strokes gained.
Cole rests sixth in total strokes gained over his last 36 rounds with top 20 marks in all relevant categories. He is 10th in opportunities gained and 12th in BOB gained. A missed cut at the Charles Schwab is surrounded by strong performances at significantly better fields at the Memorial, the Byron Nelson, and the PGA Championship.
Cole feels like another strong top finisher play this week with a sprinkle on his outright. An OAD play might be a bit thin, but we certainly love him for sports betting purposes.
Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.