2023 RBC Heritage: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-04-12 02:22:45

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 RBC Heritage. Use the PrizePicks referral code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf entries today!

Normally, an afterthought on the PGA Tour schedule, the RBC Heritage receives a bit of juice this season with an elevated designation. Golf’s elite make the short trip to Harbor Town Links this week for another elevated event with plenty of money at stake — along with a nifty plaid jacket. Will Jon Rahm continue his dominance? Will a favorite emerge again as a winner. Let’s get into this week’s betting odds before going over the course and some golfers to watch based on recent statistics.

2023 RBC Heritage Betting Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – April 10th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The RBC Heritage:

• 2022 – Jordan Spieth (-13)
• 2021 – Stewart Cink (-19)
• 2020 – Webb Simpson (-22)
• 2019 – CT Pan (-12)
• 2018 – Satoshi Kodaira (-12)
• 2017 – Wesley Bryan (-13)
• 2016 – Branden Grace (-9)
• 2015 – Jim Furyk (-18)

Harbor Town Golf Links has not seen this much firepower in a long time. Sure, the event normally attracts a handful of players as well as the RBC-sponsored players, but this year the field is extra loaded. As an elevated event, 143 of the tour’s best look to chase Jon Rahm after his big win at Augusta.

Rory McIlroy will not play as he withdrew from the field on Monday morning. We will let everyone on social media speculate on why Rory won’t play the event and whether or not it had to do with his performance at Augusta. Will Zalatoris will not play this event as well as every other event this season after announcing he underwent surgery for his recent injuries. Zalatoris looks to be back for the fall swing.

Jordan Spieth will look to defend his title but will face far greater competition to do so. Collin Morikawa famously finished second a couple of years ago to a white-hot Stewart Cink. Like Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas will look to make his ball-striking prowess advantageous on a shotmakers’ course.

The LIV golfers that undeniably added plenty of value to The Masters will not be around this week but plenty of former winners will return to join golf’s best for a fun week in South Carolina. The Pete Dye designed course demands a different type of golfer that allows everyone to contend in good form. Let’s break down the course and some form-relevant statistics before considering some golfers for the week.

2023 RBC Heritage Betting Preview

• Course: Harbor Town Golf Links
• Date: April 13 – 16
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,191
• Greens: Bermuda

Harbor Town Golf Links is a ball-striking golf course. The course is so short, lines with trees and rife with doglegs, that golfers will succeed if they can successfully play target golf for four days. Driving distance is barely relevant and the important of SG: OTT is diminished. Instead, golfers that can find themselves in the best possible position off of the tee will be in the best spot.

Approach is paramount at this course. I know. When isn’t approach paramount? However, players will club down off of the tee to find the write number to dial in their approaches. The Bermuda greens are very small so golfers that can leave themselves with makable birdie putts will excel at Harbor Town. We will be ramping up the weight of SG: Approach this week while exclusively focusing on ball-striking to find golfers who do well when taking less club.

Around-the-green game is important as players will miss greens this week because of size. Stewart Cink in his win two seasons ago took advantage of the trusty old Texas wedge to nurse a big lead on Sunday en route to his second win of that season. Along with a very strong game around these small greens, we will not be able to ignore who is putting extremely well — especially on Bermuda grass.

We won’t see that many long irons because the course is so short but we will need to isolate some proximity ranges from 125 yards to 200 yards. Further, every Par 3 on the course lies between 175 and 200 yards. We can consider adding that statistical category for the first time in awhile.

There are only three Par 5’s but these holes present the best scoring opportunities for players. We will need to include Par 5 scoring in our model this week to find the players most equipped to take advantage of these vital scoring opportunities.

This week should be fun. I will be interested to see how the world’s best adjust their game to a course with plenty of personality. Can Jon Rahm and Cameron Young perform well while clubbing down off of the tee. Can the better approach specialists take advantage? Let’s pick a few golfers to look at.

Editor’s Note: Don’t live in a state with legal golf betting? Check out our Underdog promo code, one of the top DFS apps for fantasy golf pick’em.

Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Collin Morikawa +1800

Collin Morikawa played pretty well at The Masters despite not really sitting in contention at any point. We don’t need to place too much emphasis on Augusta as the proper weather draw meant a lot for players.

Morikawa has enjoyed success at this golf course and we should not be shocked. A course that commands a dominant approach game will play very well for arguably one of the top five iron players in the world. When you consider the course isn’t very long, the fit for Collin Morikawa is even better.

Morikawa made a run two season ago before ultimately finishing in 7th. Morikawa needs to be considered one of our top selections on this course. Where is the issue? Putting. Morikawa ranks 110th in putting in the field. This course requires players cashing in on their opportunities. We know Collin will have plenty of opportunities. Will he cash in? I think he merits some consideration as an outright.

Justin Thomas +2500

We might want to just copy and paste all of our prose about Collin Morikawa here for Justin Thomas. Another one of the finer ball strikers on Tour, Justin Thomas needs to bounce back after a horrendous effort at The Masters. With all of the talk surrounding the LIV Tour, Thomas will need to perform better than missed cuts when his ex-brethren are in the field.

Thomas, unlike Morikawa, is one of the better players around the green on tour. He ranks first in SG: ARG in this week’s field over his last 36 rounds. If he misses greens, Thomas will very likely leave himself with very tight up-and-down opportunities where his putting can’t be much of a concern.

I think Thomas is a good play for any form of betting this week — outright, OAD, DFS, and finisher bets. Thomas must be embarrassed by his performance last weekend. There might not be a better place for him to bounce back.

Corey Conners +4500

We aren’t going to find many better ball strikers in this field than Corey Conners. Off of his win at Valero, Conners struggled mightily at Augusta National. He missed the cut in epic fashion and will surely look to atone for his rough two days.

Conners has a 12th and 4th in back-to-back tries at this event. We shouldn’t be surprised. He is going to contend here because of his precise approach game and ability to create plenty of opportunities. However, where he struggles could really hinder his ability to compete in this stacked field. He continues to struggle on and around the green this season and without the ability to cash in on his approaches, Conners will struggle to come out on top.

That said, 45/1 feels like a nice price to add to a betting card. Conners is 55/1 at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of this writing. He should be in consideration as an outright bet and a top finisher selection. His irons alone should keep him in contention this weekend.

Tom Hoge +10000

When we go down the card, we find some pretty palatable odds for Tom Hoge because of field strength. Hoge did not have a great weekend at Augusta but most recently performed especially well at The Players. While Hoge does not have a history of great success at this course, his ball striking and approach game would suggest a 100/1 flier is not the worst idea on an outright bet. Top finisher bets might be a bit risky and a OAD selection seems completely unnecessary. That said, a cheap outright to round out your card isn’t the worst idea for the Hoge man.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Getty Images