Red Sox vs. Rays Odds, Picks & Prediction — Thursday, September 2nd
Red Sox vs. Rays Odds
| Red Sox Odds | +150 |
| Rays Odds | -160 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 2 |
| Time | 7:10 pm ET |
| TV | NESN |
| Odds accurate as of Thursday at Caesars | |
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On Thursday evening, the Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays will conclude a four-game set at Tropicana Field. Tampa Bay has won two of the first three contests in this series and will be looking for a series victory tonight. In this matchup, the Red Sox will send Eduardo Rodriguez to the hill. He will be opposed by Shane McClanahan. Oddsmakers are expecting a Tampa Bay win, pricing the Rays as -160 favorites on the money line.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Boston Red Sox
Through 25 starts this season, Rodriguez has an unflattering 5.12 ERA, but a far-more palatable 3.57 xERA, and a 3.48 FIP. He has been victimized by awful luck on balls in play, evident by a .358 BABIP against him, despite ranking in the 85th percentile in average exit-velocity and the 77th percentile in hard-hit rate. In his last eight starts, Rodriguez has posted a 4.14 ERA and a 3.10 FIP, supported by a strong 28.7 strikeout-percentage. His command has escaped him at times, but he should be effective tonight nonetheless, against a Tampa Bay lineup that ranks 22nd in OPS against left-handed pitching.
The Red Sox lineup is currently down a few men with key players such as Enrique Hernandez and Xander Bogaerts on the COVID-19 injured list. Still, over the last seven days, this offense ranks ninth in OPS and 12th in ISO. On the year, this lineup ranks eighth in OPS and 15th in ISO against left-handed pitching. The market may be over-weighting Boston’s missing offensive pieces in this one. Despite missing some big names, the Red Sox still have the potential to hang with the Rays tonight, especially once they make their way into the Tampa Bay bullpen.
Over the last 30 days, Boston’s bullpen ranks 16th in FIP. Arguably their biggest problem has been an 11.4 percent walk-rate, which ranks 27th in the league during this stretch. Matt Barnes, Josh Taylor, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Martin Perez are all on the COVID-19 injured list heading into tonight’s action, leaving this relief corps slightly thin on talent. Bettors might want to cut this game in half on their wager to avoid potential chaos in the latter frames.
Tampa Bay Rays
Through 20 turns in the rotation in 2021, McClanahan owns a 3.59 ERA, 4.60 xERA, and a 3.37 FIP. He has thrown the ball even better in his last eight trips to the mound with a 2.84 ERA and a 2.75 FIP. In that span, he is striking-out a healthy 27.0 percent of opposing batters against a 6.9 percent walk-rate. Part of his success can be attributed to the fact that he has been working ahead in the count quite often, evident by a 63.0 first-strike percentage. If he can get strike-one again tonight, he has an opportunity to deliver another solid outing.
The Rays have been rather mediocre at the plate in recent weeks, ranking 11th in OPS and 13th in ISO over the last 14 days. This is also a lineup that has struggled mightily against southpaws since Opening Day. Facing a tough lefty tonight in Rodriguez is unlikely to improve these numbers.
Tampa Bay threw five different pitchers in last night’s affair. Entering play today, they have not used any pitchers in back-to-back days, but that could change this evening. Over the last 30 days, this relief corps ranks eighth in FIP, but fatigue could make this unit less formidable in this one.
Pick
Tropicana Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly venues in Major League Baseball. Since the beginning of the 2019 campaign, only the Oakland Coliseum has generated less offensive output in night games. Thus far in 2021, Tropicana Field has produced the least offense in the league—generating seven percent less offense compared to league average, including a home run rate that is 21 percent below league average.
Both starting pitchers in this game have the potential to turn in excellent outings. Neither offense is particularly well-equipped in this matchup, which should lead to a lower-scoring start to this ballgame. However, due to Boston’s COVID-related issues, and Tampa Bay’s potential issues with fatigue in the late innings, bettors should look to cut this game in half.
The under 4.5 for the first five innings of this game makes the most sense from a betting perspective. Expect Rodriguez and McLanahan to have good stuff tonight and for this bet to cash.
PICK: Under 4.5, First 5 innings (-144)
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