Reverse Engineering: The U.S. Open
When Branden Grace drove the ball out of bounds on a hole where out of bounds wasn’t in play, carlbassewitz must have been loving life. His DraftKings Millionaire Maker team for the U.S. Open featured the already-in-the-clubhouse Louis Oosthuizen and Grace’s playing partner, Jordan Spieth. With safe, smart play over the final three holes, Spieth would cruise to victory, and so would Carl.
But as you probably know, Spieth would hand a couple of shots back on the next hole, and Dustin Johnson would make his move to have a shot on 18 to win it all. That meant RotoGrinders’ own headChopper would have a shot at a million dollars if DJ could just sink a 12-footer for eagle. Or even two-putt for birdie and force a playoff.
Again, you probably already know how this one ends. Johnson misses both putts, holes out a third putt for par and finishes second. Spieth wins, and that cements carlbassewitz into the first spot in DK’s richest golf event yet. So how did he get there?
Let’s take a look at the winning lineup, and see what we can learn moving forward.
Jason Dufner – Dufner isn’t very long off the tee, and has been one of the worst putters on Tour for a couple of years now. Yet he has three career wins and 35 top tens. So what’s the deal, and what made him a good pick this week? His sub par resume but ability to get from tee to green made him a safe pick in a range where there were several other popular options. Brooks Koepka was slightly more expensive and was one of the most owned players in the field, while Ryan Moore, Kevin Na, Webb Simpson, and other players in the same range saw higher ownership than Duff.
Dufner was also coming off of a couple of decent performances in his last two outings, with an eighth place finish at the Byron Nelson and a 24th at the Memorial. You have to differentiate somewhere to win a big tournament, and landing a player who finished in the top-20 with low ownership at a fair price is a great way to do that in DFS PGA. There was a big focus on finding six guys who could win the tournament (I fell into this as well), but as it turns out, getting smart filler players to justify Spieth and some other top performers would be just fine for such a tough course.
Tony Finau – A rising star on the tour, Finau bombs the ball all over the place and is going to be a regular on leaderboards moving forward. He was able to hit it long and high over most of this course’s obstacles, and like Dufner, his lack of putting ability didn’t hurt him this week on a course that wasn’t offering a very inviting putting experience. He was cheap and should have been higher owned than he was, coming off of four top-20 finishes in a row.
To fit in a top player, you have to “punt” somewhere, and Finau was by far the best punt at the U.S. Open this past week. He turned out to be the ideal compliment to Spieth, and is a player to watch for every week, especially on courses where length off the tee is rewarded.
Kevin Kisner – I’m starting to sense a bit of a trend in Carl’s picks. Kisner has been one of the hottest players on tour for the past few months, bouncing back from a missed cut at the Shell in April to post finishes of second, 28th, second, 38th, fifth, and eighth over the past two months. He’s an accurate driver who rarely loses his cool on the greens and is among the PGA’s elite at avoiding bogeys. That played out this weekend, as he posted an extremely rare bogey-free round, earning some bonus points on DK.
Louis Oosthuizen – Just when we thought there was a trend developing in Carl’s picks, he throws us a curveball. Louis has been dealing with an injury as of late, and therefore has been relatively tough to trust. He posted some strong finishes a couple months ago, but has since been off the radar and has been seen as a withdraw threat due to his ailments. But he’s far too talented to be priced in the mid $7,000’s as he was, and in a tournament where having a good, unique lineup is a path to a huge payday, he was a brilliant choice.
He’s a solid all-around player who is good tee-to-green and great at getting it up and down for pars when he misses the dance floor in regulation. Sometimes, as we saw on Sunday, he skips the putting thing altogether and just holes it out from off the putting surface.
Patrick Reed – How was this guy only 14% owned? He’s not the most likable character in the PGA, but he’s been making every cut and finishing in or around the top-20 for quite a while, and is a master on and around the green. Everyone loved Phil Mickelson for his creativity in tough spots when trying to get it up and down, but that love didn’t seem to translate over to Reed, who has a similar ability to craft the right shot when he’s in trouble.
Were it not for a 76 on Saturday, Reed would have been in the discussion on Sunday for a win, further aiding Carl’s quest for a million dollars. He’s another player I’m planning on seeing atop leaderboards in the near future, as he’s just too good where it matters on the golf course to not be a regular contender on tour.
Jordan Spieth – We knew that the winner of the Millionaire Maker would have to pick the winner, and it came down to Spieth and Johnson on the last hole, with the big check hanging in the balance. Spieth’s ability and track record should be obvious at this point, and picking him to lead a GPP team is never a bad idea. What negatives are there to Jordan’s game? He’s not the longest driver on the planet, but he still gains over a stroke and a half from tee to green, meaning the combination of the distance and placement of his tee shots and approach shots more than make up for whatever lack of distance he may have.
And when you only have one entry to the tournament, like Carl had, picking the a chalk favorite and pairing him with your favorite low to mid-range values is a smart way to go. You really need a winner to cash big in a GPP, as the ten-point leap from second to first is pivotal at the top of a DFS PGA leaderboard.
So how do you earn a big payday without picking a winner? Have three of the top five in a tournament which featured a strange combination of chalk and off-the-board plays near the top of the final standings. That’s what headChopper did, picking two of South Africa’s finest (Branden Grace and Louis Oosthuizen) to pair with runner-up Dustin Johnson to earn $100,000 with a bit of heartbreak on the side.
This was a fantastic, dramatic tournament to watch, with plenty to talk about on the course and about the course. And for carlbassewitz, who entered a single bullet into the tournament and took down the $1,000,000 top prize, it will be a weekend to remember.
As for those of us who finished second or worse, it’s another opportunity to learn from the eventual winner and figure out how to take down these huge top prizes. So what did you learn from the U.S. Open and the winning lineup that you’ll be incorporating into your future roster building? Let me know in the comments.