2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Golf Betting Tips: Detroit Golf Club Course Preview

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2024-06-18 12:53:04

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on U.S. Open DFS Pick’em entries this week!.

After another elevated event, the PGA Tour finally lets down a bit for the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club. The field of 156 players is not completely empty of top talent but is certainly not as strong as we’ve seen for weeks. With a damp Detroit as this week’s setting, PGA Tour players will be taking dead aim at a course already fit for a birdie fest. Who will go the lowest this weekend? Let’s break down the course and highlight a few golfers for the week.

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – June 27th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The Rocket Mortgage Classic:

• 2022 – Tony Finau (-26)
• 2021 – Cameron Davis (-18)
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
• 2019 – Nate Lashley (-25)

The field will consist of 156 players with the top 65 and ties making the weekend. Rickie Fowler sits atop the leaderboard with last year’s champion, Tony Finau. Fowler’s recent form is pointing directly at a win. A ten-under performance last Saturday put Rickie back in the mix for the Sunday finale. That said, his odds are very, very tough to stomach, without any recent win equity.

Tony Finau stormed back to win this event last season, even if it was deeper into the summer. Finau was white hot for a couple of weeks and closed for a victory here on a course that certainly fits his game. Wide open and favoring the longer hitter, Detroit Golf Club will reward the best ball-strikers in the field. Tony Finau and other longer hitters should be in consideration as we map out our betting card.

Some of the younger talents on tour will be highlighted this weekend and nobody will get as much attention as Ludvig Aberg. Aberg has shown well in his starts since turning pro and will likely get plenty of attention this weekend in what should be a scoring festival. Will he have enough firepower to hang with the top of the board?

Let’s take a look at Detroit Golf Club.

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview

• Course: Detroit Golf Club
• Date: June 29 – July 2
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,370
• Greens: Bentgrass (Poa mix)

Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross design, as classical as a classic parkland course can get. The fairways are wide (15th widest on Tour), there isn’t much trouble anywhere, and everything is straight and flat.

The bentgrass greens are pretty small relative to the standard on tour. Further, the rough and the smallish greens are really the only facets defending the course. This would explain the scoring over the first four editions of the tournament. Moved to the end of June, in wet conditions, the course is going to play soft. We should see heavier scoring than we have over the last few years.

The course is a typical Par 72 layout. Nine of the ten Par 4’s are less than 460 yards. The Par 5’s are some of the easiest on tour, with two of them playing at birdie rates higher than 40%. There does not seem to be a lot to worry about in this course. Guys will need to go low to even make the weekend.

Per Ron Klos on Twitter, in the four years of this event, every player in the top 10 has gained strokes putting. This is going to surely be a putting contest as all players will be smashing the ball off the tee and having wedges in.

We are going to overweight SG: Approach this week as it seems nobody will be able to compete if they aren’t throwing golf balls at the flag. Further, BOB% is back after a few tougher weeks with the majors. We aren’t too worried about saving pars, ARG play, or scrambling at this course. If our golfers are scrambling, they are losing. We will factor in putting, SG: Par 5, driving distance, and Par 4: 350-400. In short, this course is all about creating opportunities and cashing them out. Since this will be a birdie fest, this might be a good week to pay for a cheaper card and hope somebody has a great week.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Rickie Fowler +1200

Rickie is going to be the man to beat in models this week. His recent form is incredible and he should sit atop most statistical models whether you approach this week in a granular fashion or more generally. His approach and putting have been immaculate while his birdie-rate cannot be ignored.

The problem with Rickie is the price. If you still have Rickie in the chamber for one-and-done, fire when ready. He will be popular. For me, though, I am not sure I want to invest the money at the top of the board this week. If Rickie wins, I will be happy. However, I think I would rather stack up 4-5 golfers at higher odds than pay so much for one. We will root for Rickie this week, but he won’t find his way on the card.

Taylor Moore +5000

Get ready, now we are entering a range that I will be peppering this week. Taylor Moore leads off a series of players that continue to play well, especially at the less-elevated fields on tour. Moore broke through for a victory earlier this season and continues to be in great form rolling the rock. For the most part, I don’t want to include anyone on the card that isn’t going to make putts.

Moore still makes plenty of birdies despite not being the most proficient iron player in the field. He sits in the top 25 of our key Par 4 length and BOB% while sitting third in putts from 5-10 feet. Given how small these greens are, this seems like the most heavily saturated range for putting. If Moore can find a spike approach week, he should be in contention on Sunday chasing a low score.

Austin Eckroat +5000

While not the best putter in the field, Eckroat continues to flash form and will see a precipitous decline in field strength this week. He is on a run of seven made cuts including a 10th-place finish at the U.S. Open and a solid performance last weekend at the Travelers despite a slow Sunday.

While I worry about the putting, Eckroat seems to create more than enough opportunities to compete. He gained 5.6 strokes putting on the greens last week and 7.3 strokes back in his second-place finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson. When Eckroat plays well on the greens, he will contend. He seems like a worthy addition at this price.

Chez Reavie +10000

While not the longest hitter on tour, Chez had the irons dialed in last week at the Travelers and the putter rolling. Admittedly, TPC River Highlands is a very friendly landing spot for Reavie, but the lack of real strength in this field leaves me intrigued at this price.

Reavie could not close on Sunday when Keegan Bradley could. Despite Bradley sputtering down the stretch, Reavie never really posed a threat and instead remained stuck in neutral all round. Reavie played well in Canada and seems to be in strong form. At this price, he makes plenty of sense if we are looking for a bargain-bin type of betting card. He will be in consideration depending on his draw.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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