Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds: Golf Betting Picks & Predictions This Week

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2022-07-26 16:44:06

Joe Cistaro previews Rocket Mortgage Classic PGA odds and golf betting tips this week. Use the PrizePicks promo code ‘GRINDERS’ to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

After a clear-the-board type of victory from Tony Finau at the 3M Open, the Rocket Mortgage Classic offers a slight uptick in field quality for our viewing pleasure ahead of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Finau is slated to play after his third victory on tour while Patrick Cantlay and Will Zalatoris join the fray. Will the Rocket Mortgage repeat with a first-time winner? Will the top players take another event ahead of the playoffs? Let’s start with some odds.

Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – July 25th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the winners of the Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club:

• 2021 – Cam Davis (-18)
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
• 2019 – Nate Lashley (-25)

Cam Davis bested Joaquin Niemann and Troy Merrit in a playoff last season for his first win on tour. Davis returns to defend with Lashley also in the field. Bryson, like many other players, will not play in Detroit because of his LIV Golf membership.

156 golfers will tee it up on Thursday with the top 65 and ties making the cut. Notable players in the field are Tony Finau, Will Zalatoris, Cameron Young, Max Homa, Keegan Bradley, and more. The strength of this field is clearly better than last week’s 3M Open with the class at the top noticeably more concentrated. Since we see a better field, we should see better sports betting odds on some of the mid-range golfers.

Let’s take a look at Detroit Golf Club prior to making some outright betting picks.

2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Preview

• Course: Detroit Golf Club
• Date: July 28 – 31
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,370 yards
• Greens: Poa Annua

A Donald Ross design, Detroit Golf Club is a classic design. The tree-lined fairways, the doglegs, and the undulating greens will all test the full bag for golfers this weekend. We use the word test relatively, as the event yielded extremely low scoring in its first three renditions.

Bryson DeChambeau took an extremely aggressive approach in his 2020 victory, using his length to take the course apart. Immediately, we think of Cameron Young who leads the field in SG: OTT. That said, Kevin Kisner has three made cuts at this event with two T10 finishes. Length is not the only factor.

The bentgrass greens are very small but feature plenty of undulation. The greens are some of the easiest on tour to hit but will demand a lot of the putter as is the case with most classic Donald Ross designs. If missed, the short game of the player will be tested, finding the right level and landing area to help save par. With that said, the likelihood of a birdiefest points towards deemphasizing around-the-green play. If a player is missing greens, he isn’t going to win this tournament.

We get the full allotment of holes at Detroit Golf Club with players getting four cracks at Par 5’s. That said, the course also features four Par 4’s in the 350-400 yard range — very uncommon on tour and likely a contributing factor to low scoring.

We should consider SG: Approach (as always), putting, P4 350-400, Par 5 scoring, and definitely SG: OTT. I might add a sprinkle of driving distance as two of the past winners excel in this area. Birdie-or-better percentage is pretty important as well and I will likely ignore around-the-green play.

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2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Cameron Young +2000 (Bet365)

If you consistently read this article, you knew this was coming. While I don’t love this price at all, there is no chance I am missing the first career victory of Cameron Young. Given the strength of the field, I see no reason to think Young can’t get his first win in Detroit.

If we use Bryson’s path to success as a model then Young should feature well at this event. Young leads the field OTT and sits 7th in driving distance. His play at The Open Championship was a master-class in driving the golf ball. Young is not just long and should find creative ways to shorten most of these holes around doglegs.

With all that said about driving the golf ball, Young is still capable in other areas. He is in the top-third in putting, 36th in approach, and fourth in ball striking. Young is trending towards a victory and must be considered in this field.

I am committed to Young and would be disingenuous if I didn’t lead with him to start my card. Cameron Young is a two-unit play this week on Bet365. I will also consider adding him for a FRL bet, especially if I can find a boost.

Chris Kirk +5000 (Caesars)

Chris Kirk won’t dazzle you but he brings the all-around game that is required in a Donald Ross design. Top ten in ball striking and OTT play, Kirk falls into the category of “needs to putt.” He is on a string of five made cuts, including a T5 at the PGA Championship and T10 at the RBC Canadian Open. In both of those events, and the Charles Schwab, Kirk was able to gain putting, leading to excellent finishes.

Kirk finished 12th and 21st at this event over the last two seasons. He was able to gain on the greens in both appearances but uncharacteristically lost 3.4 strokes on approach in 2020. I don’t expect that to happen again. Kirk shouldn’t play himself out of this tournament but should be able to contend if he gets hot with the flat stick.

Given the cost of Cameron Young, we need to drop down to this price range to keep the cost of our card relatively cheap. We are going to put 0.8 units on Kirk at Caesar’s.

Russell Henley +5500 (DraftKings)

His recent form seems to be a problem, but Russell Henley must still be considered a premier ball striker in this field. Fourth in approach play, Henley should find himself with several opportunities this week.

Henley’s price seems inflated for this field but when you consider his recent form the cost makes sense. That said, like Tom Hoge last week, I love taking advantage of great prices based on the recent form if the skills are still present. Henley’s irons are still gaining, averaging three strokes gained over his last ten measured events. If he can catch a hot putter, Henley will contend.

We will include Henley for 0.75 units. Like Young, Henley merits some FRL consideration.

Chris Gotterup +10000 (DraftKings)

Speaking of first-time winners, Chris Gotterup, like Cameron Young, will be bet and played in DFS frequently until he lifts a trophy. After a disappointing performance at the Barbasol at short odds, Gotterup returns to longshot central.

At the 3M Open last week, Gotterup opened with a disappointing 75 and looked likely two make it two consecutive missed cuts. On Friday, Gotterup flashed his talent with a 67 ahead of back-to-back 69’s to close the week. Of course, this was nowhere close to contending. That said, I was pleased to see Gotterup show resilience after a tough opening round. After the Barbasol mess, the bounceback last weekend was just what a young player needs to build confidence.

At this price, I don’t mind including Gotterup for 0.4 units in the case that he finally finds form. His 25th in birdie-or-better is promising and I think he is worth the spot on our card given his cheap price tag.

Good luck this week! Look out for any additions to the betting card with outrights or FRL bets. I will post my card Wednesday night on Twitter. We were sort of close with Hoge and Ghim for a bit. Let’s hope to grab another outright prior to the season coming to a close.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Betting Card

Net Units 3M Open: -4.45 units

2022 Profit in Units: +60.575 units

Good luck this week, everyone. Check back on Twitter on Wednesday night for my final betting card and any insights.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn