RotoGrinders Expert Survey - New Analysts Edition
Our new analysts at RotoGrinders took the time to answer some questions about their background, how they got into daily fantasy sports, and their general approach in their DFS play.
Participants:
Tyler ‘ToeTagginTambo’ Tamboline
TJ ‘tjl5124’ Laessig
Kristi ‘Krayton’ Metzger
Keith ‘eys819’ Eyster
Timothy ‘tastefultides’ Buell
Justin ‘theluuch’ Carlucci
Welcome to RG! Introduce yourself! Where are you from? What do you like to do outside of DFS?
ToeTagginTambo: What’s up, everyone!? I grew up in Nova Scotia, Canada but have lived in Alberta for the last 12 years. Outside of DFS, I like to travel (when we can) and eat some good food/have some drinks. Family time is important to me, as well.
tjl5124: Hi guys! I was born in raised in the Philadelphia area and currently live in the city. When I’m not playing DFS, you can find me on the golf course myself working on my own game.
Krayton: Hi everyone! I am excited to be a part of the RG Team! I actually grew up in a small town called Hills, Minnesota on a farm. I went to college in the Fargo, North Dakota area, and moved to Sioux Falls, South Dakota when I graduated from college and I have been here ever since. Besides playing DFS, I love anything sports. I love to golf, ride bikes, play piano and hang out with my awesome family!
eys819: Hey everyone! I grew up in a small town about 100 miles west of Chicago. I am a huge Cubs and Bears fan. I try to catch as much live sports action as I can with annual trips to Wrigley Field and Arizona for spring training.
tastefultides: Hello RG community. I am born and raised in Maine. Outside of DFS, you can find me on the golf course, attempting to be a 6 handicap golfer.
justincarlucci: Hey everyone! I’m originally from NY and grew up in PA. You can find me at a ballgame, happy hour, at the gym or trying figuring out why Ben Simmons can’t shoot an elbow jumper. Once upon a time I interned with the Brooklyn Nets. I used to host a sports show on the FM dial. I am a bit of a mutt when it comes to favorite sports teams. I am a lifelong fan of the Titans, Yankees, Sixers and Preds. I’ve been playing fantasy sports since sixth grade. My favorite annual league is a 25 team high stakes MLB auction draft in Atlantic City called the I-95 League, which my Uncle founded in 1992.
When did things start getting more serious for you in DFS? Which result(s) are you most proud of so far?
ToeTagginTambo: I started getting serious about DFS back in 2015. I found RG and started asking questions and soaking up as much information as possible. My 2 main results that come to mind are 3rd at the 2017 NFL King of the Beach, in Key West and the 2018 Shell Houston Open for PGA, where I finished 1st and 3rd in the $33 Dogleg for $120K+.
tjl5124: I started playing DFS in 2012-13, but really started taking things seriously around 2017. My biggest results came during the 2019 NFL season where I had two big six-figure scores over the course of two months.
Krayton: I started playing DFS around the end of 2015 and I got my start playing NFL. I had always been a successful season-long player and a couple of guys from my office told me about FanDuel and DraftKings. I immediately started utilizing RG and tried to analyze as much information as possible. I had a ton of success starting out playing cash games with NFL and then branched out to MLB and NBA and had great success there as well. I ended up playing in FanDuel’s Fan Championship in December of 2018 against 18,000 people. I thought I had won first place for $1 million for an hour and half after the last NFL game only to find out there was a stat correction that took me to 2nd place. $400,000 was still a great payday but it was an absolutely insane day. Jeff Collins ended up getting first place that day and I was happy for him and glad that I still had a great payday, too. Last year I actually qualified 4 times for FanDuel’s MLB Live Final in San Diego. It was my first live final and I got 8th out of 125.
eys819: I started playing DFS casually in late 2016, but it was not my primary focus until 2018. My biggest win to date was the DraftKings NFL Slant in Week 5 of 2019. I also finished 1st in the $100 single entry Spy and 20th in the Milly Maker on DraftKings. A few weeks later I finished 8th in the FanDuel Million. More recently I have GPP wins in KBO, MMA and NASCAR.
tastefultides: I started taking DFS more seriously in 2017. I was consistently cashing in double-ups and 50/50’s and started playing more GPPs as a result. Winning the 100-man ThunderDome in NBA is probably my most proud moment in DFS
justincarlucci: In 2016, I took down a “Monster” NBA GPP on FanDuel and qualified for the Miami live final twice over the next few months. I shipped 100K twice this season in NBA GPPs. I’m looking forward to the DK NBA final in a few weeks, even though it’s not live, the prize pool is still loaded and should be intense. Hopefully, it will be a result to write about next month!
What are your favorite DFS sports and which have you had the most success in?
ToeTagginTambo: PGA and NFL, for sure. I’ve had good returns/bigger wins in some of the side sports but I definitely enjoy the weekly grind in PGA/NFL, more than the daily grind sports.
tjl5124: I have played a bit of everything at different points in time, but NFL and PGA are my two favorite sports to play and the ones where I’ve seen the most success.
Krayton: I actually got my start in DFS because of my lifetime love of the NFL and fantasy football, but I would have to say I now believe MLB is my favorite sport. NBA is definitely a close third for me, but those are my favorite three sports and the ones I have been most successful in! I love all of the analytics that MLB provides as it translates very well to finding great plays in DFS.
eys819: I play pretty much every sport, but MLB and NFL are my favorite and most successful sports. I have played NASCAR and NBA for 3 years, and more recently KBO, PGA and MMA.
tastefultides: I have had success in all of the major sports. That being said I am most comfortable playing high stakes NBA, NHL, MLB, and NFL
justincarlucci: I’ve had success in many sports, but NBA is my first love and is still my favorite. It’s critical to adapt with minutes or seconds before lock. There’s nothing like a Paul Zipser becoming relevant at 6:59 ET.
Do you consider yourself chalky, balanced, or contrarian in your GPP builds? Discuss some of the important factors that go into your tournament lineup-building process.
ToeTagginTambo: Mostly contrarian. It can feel wrong or awkward/forced at times but my goal is to build to WIN the GPP and not just to cash. I only play GPPs, so my main builds are all around trying to use game-theory to leverage the field in front of me. I think understanding how to use ownership and roster-construction are two of my biggest strengths that have helped me find success, long-term.
tjl5124: I tend to come in on the chalkier side. I play a lot of cash games and small field tournaments, so I focus on building one optimal lineup and enter it into a bunch of different contests. With my strategy, I don’t worry too much about ownership and just try to build the lineup that I feel has the best combination of floor and ceiling.
Krayton: I actually consider myself fairly chalky as I like to find the optimal lineup but one of the things that maybe makes me a little unique is that I have been pretty good at finding good value plays, especially in baseball and even in NFL. I manage a Wealth Management Department for a career and I approach stocks and investing in a similar way so that’s probably why it works well for me. On a typical GPP build you will find that I have many players that are considered chalky with some contrarian value plays that I have researched that make it all work. I have had great success with this strategy. I also utilize ownership projections to see who the field will be on and this too has helped me find long-term success.
eys819: Definitely balanced depending on the slate. I have no problem eating the chalk if it makes sense or there is not an appropriate pivot in the same price tier. However, it is always important to find a way to get different somewhere.
tastefultides: For me I don’t think there is a right or wrong way to go. The most important part of any slate is following the news cycles throughout the day/week. Understanding who is going to be chalky and who is going to be contrarian. With that knowledge understand what is best for the certain contest you are playing in.
justincarlucci: Balanced, however, it’s very situational and I don’t think you can strictly label yourself one or the other. It’s important to analyze accurate ownership projections. If you’re entering a limited amount of entries, I’m choosing a few stands to make and completely fading a few players that’ll carry significant ownership.
What is typically your favorite field size to target (large, small, single-entry, etc.) when registering for your DFS contests? Why?
ToeTagginTambo: Definitely large-fields. They can be frustrating to deal with because of all the “close calls” but I have had much more success in them, as the contrarian mindset I mentioned above has worked better for me in these. I am still working daily on my 1-3 max game and it definitely needs to improve before I feel comfortable in more of the higher-dollar, smaller field type events.
tjl5124: I prefer the smaller field, bigger buy in tournaments. This fits my style of being able to build one optimal lineup and only needing to beat a few hundred people vs. tens of thousands.
Krayton: I definitely like the single entry fields and that is where I personally have found the most success. I feel very confident competing against every person’s best lineup and I don’t have to compete against the MME player. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy playing some of the larger field tournaments that you can play multiple lineups, but for me I have had some very big wins in the single entry tournaments and especially some of the higher dollar single-entry tournaments.
eys819: I play contests of all sizes but generally prefer large-field tournaments. I enjoy building around a core supported by the math that I expect to perform well. Multi-entry allows you to differentiate around it to account for variance.
tastefultides: It can depend on the sport and slate. It can also vary depending on if I really like a certain player for that slate. Generally, I play smaller field GPPs. Although I play with stiffer competition I feel like I can still be profitable and don’t have to beat out thousands of entries.
justincarlucci: My entries depend on the sport and the slate. I tend to play large fields to pour in more entries in sports with less possible outcomes, fewer positions to roster and smaller player pools such as MMA and NASCAR. However, I do prefer playing SE and 3-max higher stakes tournaments. You don’t have to get crazy contrarian; one low-owned pivot will often do the trick.
On a scale of 1 to 10, how much interest do you have in qualifying for live final events? And why?
ToeTagginTambo: 6. I have been fortunate enough to attend a few and while there is nothing like being around all the people with the same hobby and drive as you, they have lost their appeal a little bit. They can be massive bankroll killers and unless it’s the main NFL FFWC on DK, I have noticed the structures to be almost just as bad as some of these other top-heavy GPPs. I really prefer a more balanced structure and am not as into chasing these, as each week there is usually a comparable high-stakes GPP with less rake and money right now vs. waiting and hoping.
tjl5124: 1. This is something I have never really gotten into. I try to play contests where I feel I have the best-expected ROI, and for me, the live final qualifiers are some of the most difficult contests in DFS. Would I like to be at a live final? Of course. But right now, trying to qualify is not a primary focus of mine.
Krayton: 7. I actually set out a goal for myself to qualify for a live final and I was very fortunate to qualify not once, but four times for Fan Duel’s MLB live final last year. I know it is definitely a bankroll killer and that it is very top-heavy, but I wanted to experience it and quite honestly it’s a ton of fun. I tend to put aside some funds from my bankroll that I don’t ever expect to get back to chase a few of the live finals. I had a blast in San Diego and I actually qualified for my first DK live final in February for NBA. I was supposed to be in New York in March but we will now be competing in an online championship later this year. I also agree with Tyler that it is so much fun to spend time with the other people in the industry that love DFS as much as you do.
eys819: 4. It is not something I have pursued seriously to date. I do have some interest as I have heard nothing but great things about the experience. However, it is important to understand the format and what type of lineup it will take to win the seat.
tastefultides: 2. I would be lying if I said I never tried to qualify for a live event. I think I have attempted 2 times. I think they are awful from an ROI perspective. Your bankroll can be used in much better places.
justincarlucci: 7. There’s nothing like that live sweat against the best players in the world. The atmosphere and energy are both incredible. However, it became less appealing to me last year. In 2019, DraftKings did not count qualifier losses against your annual profit margin. Not a fan of that.
Discuss if and why game theory/game strategy is important to your DFS process.
ToeTagginTambo: It’s pretty much the backbone of what I focus on. In these large-field GPPs, this has to be top of mind. For me, it’s trying to really pinpoint what everyone else will be doing and then once I think I’ve figured that out, the next step is figuring out how I best leverage that. It won’t always work but when it does, you should leapfrog to the top and start putting yourself in contention more often. The more you do that, the more likely you are to get a solid hit.
tjl5124: Game theory is definitely an important aspect of DFS, especially in large tournaments. I often try to identify spots to fade the “bad chalk” but am not afraid to eat the chalk if I think it is a high equity play.
Krayton: I study game theory/game strategy a ton and l absolutely love being able to figure out where I think the field will be with certain plays and then being able to find maybe one or two guys that will be lower owned with huge upside. Using game theory was how I secured my NBA live final seat. I was able to get Lonzo Ball at like 2% ownership even though the numbers and matchup told me he had immense upside. I was able to lap the field when he had a huge game and I enjoy figuring out all of the pieces to the puzzle each DFS slate. I read a ton of information and take in as many podcasts as I can as well.
eys819: Game theory is incredibly important because sports are very difficult to predict. Finding the low owned pivot that outperforms the chalk is the key to being a successful tournament player. It is very important to know when and how to apply it though. It is almost always viable in a high variance sport like baseball or NASCAR, but pricing and the salary cap also need to be taken into consideration. If there is a $3k wide receiver projected for high volume targets it is going to be extremely difficult to match that expected production in that price tier. In scenarios like that, I feel too many people try to get different by pivoting off the $3k WR when it actually makes more sense to pivot in a different pricing tier.
tastefultides: Game theory is the foundation of successful DFS. However, you must be adaptive. You don’t have to play by a certain set of rules. Just because optimal models say to play a certain player doesn’t mean you have to. I could go on and on about this, but let’s just leave here for now.
justincarlucci: Game theory is almost everything. Predicting ownerships and game flow are two vital keys to success. Also, there is always more to the story behind the numbers in a simple box score.
With so much information available to predict player performance, what would be the one aspect of player evaluation you find most useful in tournaments, outside of game theory?
ToeTagginTambo: I would say content consumption is super important to my process. Surprisingly, it’s more about figuring out what others will be doing vs. trying to read/listen to too much and get paralysis by analysis. I want to read as many articles as possible and listen to as many podcasts to try and get a solid grasp of what the field has planned, so I know how I can be different and try to gain an edge that way.
tjl5124: In tournaments, there is a lot of value in identifying guys that have significant upside. Looking for volatile players that have a wider range of outcomes, as opposed to players that have a narrow range of outcomes and thus limited upside. You want to identify the guys that can return extreme value on their salary and break the slate.
Krayton: I have always been someone who researches and analyzes everything I can get my hands on. I want to know what the field will be doing and this can sometimes lead to hidden gems that no one is talking about. I also rely on the numbers and projections, but I have learned the hard way to trust my gut as well. I have made two last-minute swaps that cost me 6 figures each time, so I have learned to research as much as I can and then trust my instincts.
eys819: In tournaments you need to be hunting upside. There are statistics that are undervalued in predicting upside. I think too often people play the top projected player in tournaments when I would much rather have the guy who has the ability to hit 3 home runs but is projected for 2 points less.
tastefultides: Knowledge is power. Try to accumulate all the data that you can. Try to understand who the chalk will be for that given and determine if you want to jump aboard or not.
justincarlucci: Honestly, the margin for error across the industry is basically zero in 2020. There is so much available information; whether it’s free or behind a paywall, it’s out there. It’s important to be creative and use your imagination a bit. There’s that old saying: “trend is your friend.” It absolutely is in regard to certain metrics. History and consistency are keys for some sports. For example, course history in PGA is integral. However, in other sports, certain circumstances change by the hour or minute and you have to be comfortable with thinking outside the box to get an advantage.
What’s the best advice you can give to tournament players on dealing with big gaps between wins and to those who haven’t yet won big at all?
ToeTagginTambo: Make sure you have a strong support system and a good mindset for what’s ahead. Just because you win today, doesn’t mean you’ll win again. Hopefully, you do and if you stay on top of your game, you probably will…eventually. Just remember it could be a while and be sure to use sound bankroll management so you can endure a downswing. If you haven’t won yet, you likely need to get more serious about studying, reading forums, asking questions, finding a discord (RG) etc. It’s really tough to win when you’re not living in this bubble, almost full-time. Be sure this is what you really want.
tjl5124: Downswings can definitely be tough. It is important to understand that no matter how good of a DFS player you are, downswings WILL happen. It is important to constantly evaluate your play and make sure that you aren’t making mistakes during a downswing. Maintaining focus and continuing to play your optimal strategy is important. If you have a profitable process and continue to trust it through the ups and downs, you will see success in the long term.
Krayton: I would say that there can definitely be big gaps for every single player that plays DFS. It is just going to happen. The key for me is to trust the process even though sometimes the results don’t show it. You don’t significantly need to change things up all of the time. When I first started and I still do this, I review and analyze the winning lineups and the lineups from the players that are highly successful. You can learn so much from this and it will allow you to think about how you want to build your lineups. It is also very tough to win tournaments. I have always been very diligent about bankroll management and that probably comes with my disciplined financial background. One thing that I encourage you to do is use all of the wonderful resources at RG. They have so many amazing tools and analysts and I would encourage you to soak up as much information as you can.
eys819: Downswings are going to happen for even the absolute best players. It is important to have the correct mental attitude and understand extended periods of loss are part of this adventure. Make sure you have a solid process and solid bankroll management – then stick to them! Adapting is critical but rarely is a complete overhaul necessary.
tastefultides: Try to always remember the volatility of DFS. This isn’t an easy endeavor that you are trying to accomplish. A lot of really smart people are trying to do the same thing you are. Also, don’t start playing whacky players just because you see someone else be successful with it.
justincarlucci: You really need to trust your process. As much as you want to keep firing away, it’s OK to sit out bad slates once in a while and hit the reset button.
What’s the best advice you’d give to a new tournament player in a paragraph or less?
ToeTagginTambo: Similar to above, be sure this is what you want and understand all that goes into it. It’s an absolute mental grind and you need to be prepared to work hard and endure some serious mental “beats” if you make a mistake (late-swap etc.) or come up short on a really close opportunity.
tjl5124: Pick a strategy that you want to use, and stick with it. Try to master one game format at a time, whether it’s single entry, three max, twenty max, or MME. Don’t try to do everything at once. Pick a format, master it, and continue to build your skill set from there.
Krayton: I would say that you need to be mentally tough and have a positive attitude. It is very difficult to compete against the best players out there day in and day out. If you enjoy DFS and want to play frequently, research and soak in as much information as you can. I look at each day as a new puzzle that I like to put together. I take as much information as I can to build the best possible lineup.
eys819: Take in as much information as possible and then find an intelligent way to be different than the crowd. Be ready for extreme highs and extreme lows and have the correct process to be able to maintain your wellbeing throughout.
tastefultides: Read my above paragraph. Also, be patient and responsible.
justincarlucci: Be prepared to take losses in order to win. Patience is key; if you win small amounts many times, you still win a lot!
What is the biggest leak in your own game you’d like to plug in 2020 and beyond?
ToeTagginTambo: Definitely 1-3 max. This has been costly for me, as I haven’t been able to convert my mind over to the higher stakes with smaller fields. I have had tickets I’ve won or online final chances that basically went to waste because of this. I got a little better with it in NFL, last year. PGA still needs a lot of work.
tjl5124: Game selection is an important one for me. I need to be more strict about what games I play, both from a profitability standpoint as well as a bankroll standpoint. This is something I am working on and looking to find the right balance that allows me to continue playing long term at a profitable rate.
Krayton: I pretty much have been playing DFS for the last 4 years straight. I always tell myself I will take a little break but I never really do. The only breaks I get are the All Star Breaks for NBA and MLB. The last four months have actually been great for me to focus on some other things and to get me recharged for sports to come back. I do plan on taking a week or two off each year just to mentally recharge. That’s one of my goals for this year!!
eys819: I find I am often getting caught up in my MME build leading up to lock and it does not allow me time to put as much focus on higher stakes, smaller field tournaments. I would like to better my process so I am able to put equal focus on both and increase my volume in smaller field tournaments.
tastefultides: Since 2017 I have played DFS every day that one of the 4 major sports has been going. Holidays, weekends it doesn’t matter I have played that slate. My goal for 2020 is going to be to take one day off a week. Considering the ‘break” we’re coming off though I might want to consider making this my 2021 resolution.
justincarlucci: I need to protect profits and limit damage some more. Instead of going 100% larger GPPs every day, I need to start consistently incorporating some 3 and 4-man contests into my daily entries.
Thanks to our new analysts for taking the time to answer some questions for the community!