RotoTalk: The Situation

by Kevin Dahle (rotokevin) Last Updated 2012-07-24 20:54:23

We all like to think that daily fantasy baseball is a science; a game that one can slice a dice a few key datapoints to arrive at the correct answer. The truth is, that there is a not insignificant portion of the game that is art. Sometimes there is not good data to support a play, but there isn’t bad data to discourage a play. Heck, often times there is no data either way. Often times, these situations boil down to asking a very simple question: “Why not?”

No Data

If you use batter v. pitcher stats in your daily preparations, chances are you encounter several players with no history against the day’s pitcher. Take that guy over there, Mike Trout. He’s a rookie. He doesn’t play like one, but he hasn’t faced the vast majority of opposing pitchers. It doesn’t take much to talk oneself into starting Mr. Trout against, well, anyone. The thing is, it’s easy to neglect some players because they don’t show up on your batter v. pitcher screens. Don’t be afraid of guys that haven’t faced a starting pitcher.

Ballpark

This one is quite obvious, especially now that the splendid RG research console presents ballpark factors. Let’s stick with the Trout example. Say he’s up against Gavin Floyd, a pitcher he’s never faced. On the surface, that’s a pretty good matchup as Floyd is apt to be lit up. Even though Trout isn’t a power hitter, per se, it would be nice to have those points. It just so happens that this hypothetical matchup is in US Cellular Field, the most homer-friendly park for right-handed batters in baseball. Yeah, it’s true. Why not?

Price

Sometimes a player’s price is at a level that it offers no risk. Clearly, the Mike Trout example doesn’t work here. He’s not cheap. But let’s take an example from last week: Henry Blanco. Good ol’ Hank White is the backup backstop in Arizona. He doesn’t play much and hits even less. Heading into last week’s day game against the Reds, he was hitting a buck-ninety something and hadn’t sniffed a homer on the year. Appropriately so, he was priced at the catcher minimum on DailyJoust at $50k. From a pure analytical perspective, there was no reason to consider him for your lineup. This is where you need to consider all of the facts:

1) Mike Leake and his 5ish ERA was pitching for the Reds.
2) The game was in Cincinnati’s Great American Ballpark, the 3rd most homer-friendly ballyard in the league.
3) Blanco was in the starting lineup.
4) 50k

Considering that fact pattern, does the name of the player really matter? Blanco was in a situation ripe for offensive production. The opposing pitcher was suspect, the ballpark was accommodating and the price was right. Using the 60-point solo target as a proxy for a successful score, Blanco needed to produce 3 points to “earn” his salary. The thing is, I wouldn’t normally expect 3 points from Blanco, but his salary provided enough roster flexibility to afford more players with upside at higher salaries. In his own right, Blanco had tangible upside as discussed above. Simply, this was the perfect “why not?” situation. Sometimes you need to play the situation, not the player. In this case, playing the situation resulted in a 2-3 day with a 2-run homer. Not bad for a 50k player.

And now, a lineup…

Today, let’s attack the $500 No-stack Camelot tournament at DailyJoust. You know the rules – no more than 3 players from any one team. Here’s my squad.

If you’re new to Daily Fantasy, you could try a lineup similar to this out in the $1 contest, the Page Thomas Daily MLB Tournament. It’s low-cost to join, and the winner also gets a seat in the “Summer Joust” where you will have a shot to win your share of $5,000 cash. Click any of the Joust links to join!. There’s also a 40% Deposit Bonus on your first deposit.

Like RotoTalk? Have an idea for a future edition? Leave a comment below or shoot me a private message through RotoGrinders.