Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds, Picks, and Prediction
Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds
| Ravens Odds | +10 |
| 49ers Odds | -10 |
| Over/Under | 42 |
| Date | Sat, Jan. 14 |
| Time | 4:30 p.m. |
| TV | FOX |
The NFL postseason will begin on Saturday with an intra-division affair between the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers, the third meeting this season between these two teams. In the regular season, the 49ers won both matchups, helping them to secure the NFC West division title. The Seahawks, 9-8, clinched the final wild card position in the conference after the Detroit Lions upset the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field in Week 18. Ahead of kickoff, oddsmakers have San Francisco priced as 10-point home favorites on the spread.
Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.
Seattle Seahawks
Did Geno Smith write back?
Following a stellar first month of the season, Geno’s performance regressed significantly into the latter portion of the schedule. From Week 6 to Week 18, Smith ranked 16th out of 23 qualified signal callers in EPA per play, with six of those names being Andy Dalton, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Taylor Heinicke, Mac Jones, and Davis Mills. In that span, Seattle’s offense ranked 18th in EPA overall and 18th in dropback EPA.
Smith was outstanding from a clean pocket this year, with a 23-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he posted only a 7-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio when under pressure. In Week 2, Smith was pressured on 43.8% of his dropbacks, throwing for only 81 yards and an interception on those snaps. In Week 15, Smith was pressured on 35.4% of his dropbacks, completing 6-of-14 pass attempts for 64 yards. The game plan for San Francisco against Smith appears obvious – get pressure on him and force him to settle for underneath routes.
Ryan Neal returns to the defense
After missing the final three weeks of the regular season with a contusion, safety Ryan Neal is back for the playoffs, commenting to the media earlier this week that he is “fu—— excited to get back on the field.” Per Pro Football Focus, Neal graded as the league’s best safety this season. From Week 1 to Week 4, games in which Neal played minimally or not at all, this unit ranked 31st in EPA overall and 32nd in dropback EPA. From Week 5 to Week 15, games in which Neal played 45 snaps or more, Seattle’s defense ranked 12th in EPA overall and 9th in dropback EPA. His return will be a major boon to the secondary unit against a dangerous San Francisco passing attack.
Key injury news
Defensive end Shelby Harris is officially listed as questionable ahead of kickoff. Per Pro Football Focus, Harris graded as the ninth-best run defender at his position this year out of 139 eligible players. Facing one of the league’s premier ground attacks, his absence would be a tremendous loss for a defense that is already weak against the run.
San Francisco 49ers
Ground and pound
In Week 2, San Francisco ran for 189 yards and two touchdowns en route to a 27-7 victory at home. In the second installment of this rivalry in 2022, the 49ers amassed 170 rushing yards and a score on the ground in a 21-13 victory on Thursday Night Football. Facing a Seattle defense that ranked 26th in rush EPA for the season and 32nd in rush EPA following their Week 11 bye – expect San Francisco to run the ball early and often in this contest, looking to dominate the time of possession and protect their rookie quarterback from needing to win the game by himself in his playoff debut.
Elite defense
In the regular season, the 49ers allowed the fewest points per game, fewest yards per game, fewest rush yards per carry, and led the NFL in both EPA and DVOA on the defensive side of the ball. Earlier this week, linebackers Dre Greenlaw and Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles returned to practice, and are not on the injury report ahead of kickoff. This unit has the most talent and the most depth of team in the postseason this January. They are well-equipped to deliver a strong performance on Saturday, even against an offense that has seen them three times in 2022.
Key injury news
Cornerback Emmanuel Moseley was placed on injured reserve after Week 5. Per Pro Football Focus, Moseley graded 26th out of 122 players at his position in coverage this season. Prior to his season-ending injury, San Francisco’s defense ranked 1st in EPA overall and 1st in dropback EPA. From Week 6 to Week 18, the unit ranked 3rd in EPA overall and 8th in dropback EPA.
Seahawks vs. 49ers – Picks & Predictions
In Week 2, Geno Smith had an average depth of target of only 5.4 yards. In the rematch against the San Francisco 49ers, he had an average depth of target of only 4.4 yards. Simply, it makes it extremely difficult for an offense to score in a hurry when they are not willing to take shots down-the-field. In two games against San Francisco during the regular season, Smith had only one pass attempt of 20-plus yards down-the-field and only 12 pass attempts of 10-plus yards down-the-field. Factor in potentially offense-adverse weather conditions on Saturday and it becomes difficult to see this contest turning into a shootout. The Seattle Seahawks will be able to get on the board this weekend, but it is hard to envision them scoring more than 20 points against a team that held them to 20 total points combined in their first two meetings this fall.
PICK: Seahawks 11-20 total points (+115, DraftKings)
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