Searching for a Specialist: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

This week’s specialist search will take place on the Monterey Peninsula.

Like always, the goal of this article is to look at some split stats to see what golfers might be a good course/event fit. We have a trio of courses on hand for the AT&T Pro-Am but there are plenty of angles that work well with all three layouts.

Looking at last week’s results we had Adam Hadwin and Hideki as specialists. It was looking like an early trunk slam from Hadwin but the Canadian fought back admirably to make the cut and finish top 45. Matsuyama couldn’t find his footing on the greens and settled for a top 15.

This week we look at Performance on Poa Annua, Easy-to-Hit Fairways, Short Courses, West Coast Events, and Coastal Courses.

Here we go…

Performance on Poa Annua

All three courses this week use good, old-fashioned poa annua on the putting surfaces.

This is the third event of the season with poa greens (Safeway Open and Farmers). Strong performance in those events is a plus but we can look even further back to see who outperforms on thesegenerally soft and bumpy surfaces.

The 10 Poa Annua Specialists:

Freddie Jacobson (1.892 sg:poa vs. 0.566 sg:total)
Alex Prugh (1.22 sg:poa vs. 0.323 sg:total)
Sangmoon Bae (1.154 sg:poa vs. 0.279 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.526 sg:poa vs. 0.732 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.593 sg:poa vs. 0.848 sg:total)
Dustin Johnson (3.647 sg:poa vs. 3.059 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.871 sg:poa vs. 1.288 sg:total)
Jonas Blixt (1.018 sg:poa vs. 0.47 sg:total)
Derek Fathauer (0.726 sg:poa vs. 0.187 sg:total)
Matt Jones (1.338 sg:poa vs. 0.836 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Poa Annua since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Jordan Spieth, Phil Mickelson, and Jason Day.

Comfort on the West Coast is definitely a plus here since most of the poa annua greens on the TOUR schedule are played out West.

Easy-to-Hit Fairways

The short nature of these courses allows golfers to club down when needed to find the short grass.

Add in wet conditions and balls will be going splat instead of rolling out into the rough.

Due to the U.S. Open coming this year, the fairways have been tightened a bit but even with a big dip these fairways will still be on the easy side of the spectrum and we won’t see any changes in Spyglass or MPCC.

When fairways are easy to hit then it generally turns into a second-shot test with an emphasis on approach game.

The Top 10 Easy Fairway Specialists:

Matthew Fitzpatrick (1.974 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.296 sg:total)
Keith Mitchell (1.711 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.041 sg:total)
Patrick Rodgers (1.486 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.848 sg:total)
Russell Henley (1.936 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.447 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (0.841 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.414 sg:total)
Chris Stroud (1.089 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.665 sg:total)
David Hearn (1.229 sg:easy fairways vs. 0.811 sg:total)
Tommy Fleetwood (2.884 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.472 sg:total)
Jordan Spieth (3.013 sg:easy fairways vs. 2.631 sg:total)
Jimmy Walker (1.764 sg:easy fairways vs. 1.389 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on Easy Fairway courses since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Jason Day, Patrick Reed, and Paul Casey.

As you’d expect with this angle, most of these guys don’t rely on the driver to attack courses. Then there are guys like Mitchell and Rodgers who might benefit from putting the driver away and avoiding OB penalties.

Short Courses

Pebble Beach, MPCC, and Spyglass are all played under 7,000 yards in tournament conditions.

That is incredibly short for PGA TOUR standards.

The Top 10 Short Course Specialists:

Patrick Rodgers (1.639 sg:short vs. 0.848 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.77 sg:short vs. 2.107 sg:total)
Scott Langley (1.275 sg:short vs. 0.633 sg:total)
Lucas Glover (2.024 sg:short vs. 1.403 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (1.282 sg:short vs. 0.669 sg:total)
Richy Werenski (1.323 sg:short vs. 0.719 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.437 sg:short vs. 0.917 sg:total)
Rafa Cabrera Bello (2.435 sg:short vs. 1.923 sg:total)
Tyler Duncan (0.836 sg:short vs. 0.358 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.531 sg:short vs. 1.08 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Short Courses since 2014 are Paul Casey, Dustin Johnson, Chez Reavie, Pat Perez, and Brandt Snedeker.

This list screams APPROACH, APPROACH, APPROACH. If you take distance out of the equation then I guess that’s what happens.

Performance in the West

Staying out West for another week, some golfers can’t wait to get back to Florida while others don’t want this to end.

Some golfers drop hints on their preferences over time. Russell Henley said this a few years back, “Those West Coast tournaments can be brutal, I feel like those greens are really hard to putt on, and they are not easy courses.” Has he changed his tune since then? Perhaps, but he’ll always have a preference to the Southeast.

The Top 10 West Coast Specialists:

Talor Gooch (2.009 sg:west vs. 1.037 sg:total)
Max Homa (0.069 sg:west vs. -0.727 sg:total)
Roger Sloan (0.716 sg:west vs. 0.044 sg:total)
Brandon Harkins (1.549 sg:west vs. 0.959 sg:total)
Davis Love III (0.681 sg:west vs. 0.104 sg:total)
Martin Laird (1.906 sg:west vs. 1.331 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (2.149 sg:west vs. 1.587 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (1.286 sg:west vs. 0.732 sg:total)
Alex Prugh (0.873 sg:west vs. 0.323 sg:total)
Julian Etulain (1.09 sg:west vs. 0.599 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained in the West since 2014 are Chez Reavie, Phil Mickelson, Jordan Spieth, Brandt Snedeker, and Martin Laird.

These lists are loaded with California, Washington, and Arizona ties but it’s not a requirement to live out here to play well out here.

Coastal Courses

Heading to the Monterey Peninsula this week, these courses are exposed to the elements.

That is what coastal courses bring…coastal winds. It’s very rare to play a week on a coastal layout without wind playing a part.

The Top 10 Coastal Specialists:

Ted Potter, Jr. (1.683 sg:coastal vs. 0.745 sg:total)
J.J. Spaun (1.834 sg:coastal vs. 1.08 sg:total)
Brice Garnett (1.361 sg:coastal vs. 0.669 sg:total)
Sangmoon Bae (0.904 sg:coastal vs. 0.279 sg:total)
Kelly Kraft (1.022 sg:coastal vs. 0.414 sg:total)
Phil Mickelson (2.605 sg:coastal vs. 2.107 sg:total)
Brian Gay (1.489 sg:coastal vs. 0.999 sg:total)
Russell Knox (1.902 sg:coastal vs. 1.424 sg:total)
Chez Reavie (1.999 sg:coastal vs. 1.587 sg:total)
Brian Stuard (1.07 sg:coastal vs. 0.661 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Coastal Courses since 2014 are Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson, and Brandt Snedeker.

We talked about winds playing its part on coastal courses. Not only in shot decisions but also in agronomy. It forces them to keep greens a little slower which some golfers may also have a preference toward.

Baseline Performance

We’ve got eight golfers left in our specialist search, but a few of them have spotty baseline performances when it comes to skill over the last year…

Golfers that don’t have the long-term numbers to trust:

Freddie Jacobson
Sangmoon Bae
Fabian Gomez
Tom Hoge

Jacobson has a massive poa annua split but he hasn’t found his old groove since returning from a long layoff to be with his son.

Sangmoon finished T15 here last year and also has a huge poa split in addition to a strong coastal split. He also has struggled with consistency since returning from his long layoff.

Hoge and Gomez have a little higher baselines but still need a big improvement over the yearly baseline in order to pop into contention this week. Maybe worth a GPP dart if you need to stretch deep.

The Specialists

Kevin Streelman
Michael Thompson
J.B. Holmes
Trey Mullinax

Streelman made his first start at this event back in 2004. He missed his first three cuts but since then he is 7-for-8 here with four of those doubling as top 20s. He’s never the strongest putter but with poa annua greens he seems to be on a more level playing field.

After that we have Michael Thompson, who is a Sea Island resident so these coastal courses are right up his alley.

Then we see J.B. Holmes, who on first glance doesn’t quite pass the form test but looking closer we see he’s played six rounds in 2019 and he’s been T41 or better after five of them. One bad round is skewing his form for the moment but overall I think his game is just fine. The big hitter is 10-for-12 here with six top 25s.

Last we have Trey Mullinax, who was T3 at the midpoint last week and T8 thru 54 holes. How about his three best opening rounds on the PGA TOUR? One came on a coastal track at the Puerto Rico Open and the other two were in California (Farmers and Desert Classic). Looking at his event history, he posted a T14 during his 2017 debut and settled for a T47 last year.

The Anti-Specialists

We’ve established the great course fits, but who doesn’t fit the layout as well?

Sean O’Hair
Ben Crane
Ricky Barnes

These three are all negative in all five angles this week. They also rank outside the Top 80 in Performance over the last year so they are easy fades in my eyes.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Long-Term Skill (L52) with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Dustin Johnson
Phil Mickelson
Chez Reavie
Adam Hadwin
Patrick Reed
Shane Lowry
Brandt Snedeker
Russell Knox
Tommy Fleetwood
Jason Day
Tony Finau
Joel Dahmen
Jordan Spieth
Andrew Putnam
Martin Laird
Michael Thompson
Adam Scott
Matt Kuchar
Talor Gooch
Sungjae Im

Looks who finds himself inside the top 15 just a week after being chalkdust… Joel Dahmen. Could be a good bounce-back opportunity. UPDATE: Scratch that. He’s a pre-tourney WD.

Dustin Johnson and Patty Reed are both inside the top 5 here but they also arrive with potential jet lag.

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 6 weeks (PGA TOUR and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at Long-Term Skill (L52), FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Poa West Coastal Short Easy FW Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
Freddie Jacobson $6,000 $7,200 NA 0.566 2.263 -0.019 1.326 0.445 0.352 0.18 0.058 0.472 707 -1.374
Patrick Rodgers $6,700 $8,300 $12,100 0.848 2.002 -14.331 0.745 -0.1 0.172 0.791 0.637 0.449 435 1.225
Sangmoon Bae $6,900 $7,100 $11,800 0.279 1.429 3.61 0.875 0.241 0.625 0.023 0.209 0.395 534 0.333
Phil Mickelson $9,600 $11,300 $15,900 2.107 2.486 20.033 0.392 0.356 0.498 0.662 -0.367 0.308 75 2.143
Scott Stallings $7,100 $8,000 $12,100 0.732 1.874 7.088 0.794 0.554 0.367 -0.171 -0.07 0.295 355 0.996
Alex Prugh $6,700 $7,000 $11,200 0.323 0.889 4.642 0.897 0.55 0.071 -0.094 -0.02 0.281 415 0.787
Kevin Streelman $7,300 $8,300 $12,600 1.189 2.01 14.629 0.458 0.304 0.291 0.228 0.068 0.27 224 1.185
Derek Fathauer $6,100 NA $10,700 0.187 1.163 -3.256 0.538 0.402 -0.025 0.015 0.364 0.259 699 -0.226
Ted Potter, Jr. $7,400 $8,600 $12,600 0.745 2.277 8.68 0.061 -0.307 0.938 0.432 0.103 0.245 316 1.085
Fabian Gomez $6,600 $7,200 $10,700 0.579 0.03 7.142 0.265 0.111 0.234 0.294 0.225 0.226 411 0.735
Tom Hoge $6,300 $7,100 $11,300 0.646 0.714 11.383 0.228 0.39 0.352 0.092 0.028 0.218 394 0.562
Scott Langley $6,800 $7,700 $11,600 0.633 0.265 16.92 0.002 -0.012 0.339 0.642 0.078 0.21 289 0.856
Tyrone Van Aswegen $7,000 NA NA 0.46 0.735 0.744 0.475 -0.013 0.362 0.283 -0.069 0.208 571 0.321
Michael Thompson $7,400 $8,500 $12,700 0.701 0.116 25.628 0.213 0.187 0.311 0.233 0.093 0.207 174 1.198
Brice Garnett $7,000 $7,700 $11,600 0.669 0.719 11.306 -0.304 -0.271 0.692 0.614 0.301 0.206 298 0.97
Martin Piller $6,300 $7,100 $10,400 -0.015 -0.19 -1.756 0 0.278 0 0.417 0.301 0.199 718 -0.435
Jordan Spieth $9,400 $10,800 $16,000 2.631 2.835 9.866 0.119 -0.005 0.364 0.116 0.382 0.195 168 1.981
Talor Gooch $7,200 $8,800 $12,800 1.037 0.185 38.9 0 0.972 0 0 0 0.194 184 1.091
Dustin Johnson $11,400 $12,400 $18,700 3.059 2.693 43.365 0.588 0.267 -0.223 0.084 0.213 0.186 24 3.231
Scott Piercy $7,800 $9,100 $13,900 1.154 1.142 28.173 0.04 0.297 0.335 0.33 -0.086 0.183 191 1.135
J.J. Spaun $7,300 $8,500 $12,600 1.08 0.324 9.129 -0.452 0.011 0.754 0.452 0.137 0.181 329 1.051
Brandt Snedeker $8,200 $10,900 $14,500 1.674 2.375 23.484 0.346 0.284 0.26 0.14 -0.166 0.173 130 1.42
J.B. Holmes $7,900 $10,100 $13,600 1.532 1.504 7.106 0.384 0.25 0.031 0.035 0.136 0.167 275 1.405
Matt Jones $7,200 $7,900 $12,100 0.836 1.141 22.85 0.501 0.272 0.143 -0.356 0.266 0.165 274 0.886
Chez Reavie $9,000 $10,500 $15,600 1.587 1.526 43.276 0.068 0.562 0.412 0.004 -0.232 0.163 83 1.584
Richy Werenski $6,900 $8,400 NA 0.719 0.448 -0.65 -0.09 0.286 0.204 0.604 -0.195 0.162 475 0.946
Davis Love III $6,700 $7,900 $11,400 0.104 0.292 16.272 0 0.576 0 0.251 -0.082 0.149 487 0.083
Max Homa $6,500 $7,000 $10,900 -0.727 -0.535 9.758 0.194 0.796 0.077 -0.543 0.183 0.141 563 -0.09
Pat Perez $7,300 $9,300 $12,600 1.52 1.476 -0.363 0.032 -0.123 0.176 0.411 0.204 0.14 438 1.097
Scott Brown $6,900 $7,400 $11,700 0.766 0.211 21.85 0.29 -0.068 0.206 0.101 0.163 0.139 389 0.392
Jonathan Byrd NA NA $10,400 0.582 0.692 4.523 -0.171 -0.034 0.304 0.387 0.207 0.138 484 0.604
Jonas Blixt $6,100 $7,300 $10,900 0.47 1.375 -0.123 0.549 0.099 0.179 0.116 -0.257 0.137 613 0.344
Matthew Fitzpatrick $8,600 $9,700 $14,900 1.296 0 9.726 0 0 0 0 0.679 0.136 227 1.534
Trey Mullinax $7,400 $8,000 $12,900 0.871 1.474 35.609 0.021 0.357 0.28 0.02 0.001 0.136 249 0.919
Julian Etulain $6,100 $7,300 $10,900 0.599 1.143 20.128 0 0.49 0 0.186 0 0.135 446 0.182
Roger Sloan $6,900 $7,200 $10,800 0.044 -1.518 19.92 0 0.672 0 0 0 0.134 355 0.589
Josh Teater $6,100 $7,000 $10,400 0.342 0.265 6.181 0 -0.105 0.013 0.41 0.354 0.134 523 0.435
Peter Malnati $6,500 $7,500 $11,100 0.535 0.501 10.055 0.324 0.413 -0.102 0.256 -0.23 0.132 301 1.161
Tony Finau $10,600 $11,200 $16,000 2.069 1.297 12.344 0.489 -0.107 0.221 -0.268 0.207 0.108 145 2.71
Lucas Glover $7,700 $9,600 $12,800 1.403 1.288 8.533 -0.37 0.036 0.186 0.621 0.062 0.107 243 1.589
Russell Knox $8,100 $9,200 $14,000 1.424 1.252 36.609 -0.206 0.134 0.478 0.222 -0.123 0.101 134 1.395
Sung Kang $7,000 $8,200 $12,100 0.789 0.774 22.117 0.257 0.414 0.095 -0.179 -0.145 0.089 438 0.226
Shane Lowry $8,800 $10,000 $15,100 1.502 1.587 28.855 0.099 0.099 0.111 0.142 -0.008 0.089 120 1.571
Martin Laird $7,100 $9,800 $12,900 1.331 0.354 18.058 0.356 0.575 -0.115 -0.212 -0.168 0.087 173 1.424
Tommy Fleetwood $10,300 $11,500 $16,100 2.472 0 14.855 0 0 0 0 0.411 0.082 137 2.421
Brandon Harkins $7,000 $7,600 $11,800 0.959 1.835 8.122 0.082 0.59 -0.354 0.09 0 0.082 458 0.647
Rod Pampling $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -0.015 -0.155 -11.131 -0.12 0.015 0.221 0.221 0.041 0.076 761 -0.197
Vaughn Taylor $7,000 $8,600 $11,500 0.989 1.332 10.066 0.308 0.11 -0.337 0.051 0.238 0.074 330 1.071
Aaron Baddeley $7,200 $7,800 $12,000 0.926 0.924 7.533 0.401 0.29 -0.175 -0.01 -0.135 0.074 335 1.251
Kelly Kraft $6,600 $7,300 $11,000 0.414 0.569 -5.831 -0.352 -0.386 0.609 0.059 0.427 0.072 612 0.572
Si Woo Kim $7,400 $8,700 $12,900 0.917 -0.585 14.9 -0.342 -0.109 0.399 0.52 -0.137 0.066 255 1.229
Kevin Kisner $7,800 $9,200 $13,600 1.477 0.796 17.276 -0.275 -0.069 0.332 0.317 0.024 0.066 279 1.071
David Duval $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -2.569 -1.535 0 0 0 0.321 0 0 0.064 745 -6.611
Brian Gay $6,800 $9,600 $12,200 0.999 1.421 12.997 -0.066 -0.084 0.489 -0.154 0.083 0.054 241 1.344
Adam Scott $9,200 $10,000 $15,600 2.156 -0.104 13.866 0.418 -0.071 -0.171 0.047 0.002 0.045 175 1.897
Nick Watney $7,500 $8,800 NA 1.133 1.423 13.837 0.122 -0.016 0.133 -0.032 0.016 0.045 229 1.354
Chris Stroud $6,800 $7,500 $11,800 0.665 0.645 19.058 0.036 0.043 0.058 -0.338 0.424 0.044 409 0.509
Jim Furyk $7,000 $9,400 $12,000 1.561 1.071 0 0.203 -0.212 0.016 0.297 -0.108 0.039 405 1.248
John Huh $6,500 $7,600 $11,200 0.83 -0.282 12.37 -0.132 0.14 0.289 -0.111 0.002 0.038 352 0.927
Grayson Murray $6,300 $7,600 $11,300 0.468 1.219 -10.442 0.176 -0.085 0 -0.267 0.354 0.036 718 0.186
Brian Stuard $6,900 $7,900 $11,700 0.661 -0.174 28.776 -0.16 0.201 0.409 -0.149 -0.161 0.028 368 0.555
D.A. Points $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 -0.169 0.841 -6.631 0.434 -0.253 0.062 0.009 -0.112 0.028 794 -0.446
Keith Mitchell $7,100 $8,000 $12,100 1.041 1.002 4.879 0 -0.435 0.116 -0.25 0.67 0.02 363 1.26
Adam Hadwin $8,700 $10,300 $14,800 1.498 0.989 30.776 -0.005 0.355 -0.402 0.383 -0.245 0.017 115 1.9
Joel Dahmen $7,200 $8,900 $12,200 1.046 1.017 21.617 0.059 -0.381 0.333 -0.046 0.11 0.015 159 1.592
Stephan Jaeger $6,600 $7,600 $10,700 0.36 1.169 4.361 0 -0.057 0.3 -0.19 0 0.011 515 0.633
Jimmy Walker $7,100 $8,900 NA 1.389 2.037 2.379 -0.243 -0.121 0.022 0.015 0.375 0.009 374 1.323
Hunter Mahan $6,700 $7,800 $11,700 0.596 0.736 9.85 0.193 0.069 -0.108 0.062 -0.182 0.007 401 0.898
Patrick Reed $9,300 $10,700 $15,500 1.971 1.875 25.342 0.11 -0.089 -0.027 -0.311 0.33 0.003 117 2.275
Roberto Castro $6,900 $8,500 $11,800 0.765 0.536 8.148 0.022 0.169 -0.181 0.141 -0.139 0.002 333 1.302
Sungjae Im $8,400 $9,300 $14,500 1.945 0 43.109 0 0 0 0 0 0 187 1.302
Adam Svensson $6,900 $7,200 $11,500 1.012 0 25.128 0 0 0 0 0 0 406 0.463
Wyndham Clark $6,400 $7,500 $11,400 0.534 0 19.889 0 0 0 0 0 0 434 0.407
Hank Lebioda $6,500 $7,100 $11,000 0.508 0 19.85 0 0 0 0 0 0 478 0.232
Adam Long $6,600 $7,500 $11,300 0.286 0 16.692 0 0 0 0 0 0 371 0.73
Sebastian Munoz $6,800 $7,400 $11,300 0.523 -0.585 16.35 0 0 0 0 0 0 355 0.846
Jim Knous $6,700 $7,300 $10,700 0.471 0 15.35 0 0 0 0 0 0 409 0.603
Dylan Frittelli $7,500 $8,100 $12,600 0.907 0 14.92 0 0 0 0 0 0 243 1.335
Jose de Jesus Rodriguez $6,400 $7,100 $10,400 0.605 0 13.42 0 0 0 0 0 0 504 0.316
John Catlin NA NA NA 0.494 0 11.503 0 0 0 0 0 0 560 0.104
Nate Lashley $7,000 $8,200 $11,900 1.137 0.585 11.023 0 0 0 0 0 0 350 0.997
Doug Ghim $7,600 $8,200 $13,000 0.092 0 10.833 0 0 0 0 0 0 505 0.345
Cameron Champ $8,000 $9,400 $14,400 1.321 0 10.197 0 0 0 0 0 0 262 1.413
Sepp Straka $6,700 $7,100 $10,800 0.08 0 9.61 0 0 0 0 0 0 591 0.107
Cameron Davis $6,600 $8,000 $11,500 1.036 -0.215 8.889 0 0 0 0 0 0 455 0.683
Chase Wright $6,300 $7,000 NA 0.411 0 7.652 0 0 0 0 0 0 553 0.388
Anders Albertson $7,000 $7,800 $11,800 0.499 0 2.159 0 0 0 0 0 0 419 1.18
Kyoung-Hoon Lee $6,100 $7,000 $10,300 0.174 0 0.402 0 0 0 0 0 0 534 0.664
Curtis Luck $6,700 $7,300 $11,100 0.342 0 0.023 0 0 0 0 0 0 665 0.147
Ho Sung Choi $6,400 $7,100 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 691 0
Steve Jones NA $7,000 NA 0 -1.198 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 691 0
Broc Everett $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -0.205 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 730 -0.413
Dru Love $6,400 $7,100 $10,400 -0.399 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 742 -0.673
Ryan Ruffels $6,000 $7,000 $10,400 -0.557 0.321 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 754 -1.499
Jason Schmuhl $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.755 -3.894 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 760 -2.22
Martin Trainer $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -0.078 0 -0.562 0 0 0 0 0 0 740 -0.18
Kramer Hickok $6,900 $7,400 $11,100 0.46 0 -3.319 0 0 0 0 0 0 563 0.786
Tom Lovelady $6,500 $7,300 $10,700 0.445 0.585 -4.256 0 0 0 0 0 0 720 0.147
John Chin $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 -0.282 0 -4.89 0 0 0 0 0 0 732 0.124
Joey Garber $6,300 $7,000 $10,300 -0.545 0 -5.158 0 0 0 0 0 0 761 -0.107
Kenny Perry $6,200 $7,200 $10,300 -0.503 -0.065 -7.456 0 0 0 0 0 0 825 -2.078
Chris Thompson $6,000 $7,000 $10,200 -0.135 0 -8.39 0 0 0 0 0 0 662 0.496
Brady Schnell $6,400 $7,000 $10,200 -0.487 0 -14.437 0 0 0 0 0 0 770 0.019
Seth Reeves $6,300 $7,600 $10,500 -0.076 0 -16.598 0 0 0 0 0 0 748 0.175
Kyle Jones $6,200 $7,100 $10,200 -0.494 0 -24.098 0 0 0 0 0 0 785 -0.003
Ryan Armour $7,200 $7,900 $12,000 0.974 1.182 7.527 -0.467 -0.154 0.295 0.185 0.072 -0.014 418 1.153
Branden Grace $8,900 $10,400 $15,400 1.685 1.669 23.235 -0.125 0.28 0.243 -0.233 -0.242 -0.015 211 1.451
Jason Day $10,900 $11,700 $17,800 2.751 2.835 26.731 0.157 -0.062 0.054 -0.04 -0.21 -0.02 143 2.69
Cameron Tringale $6,300 $7,300 $10,600 0.5 0.655 6.648 0.235 0.081 -0.493 0.169 -0.139 -0.03 707 -0.224
Ryan Palmer $7,200 $9,100 $12,900 1.288 0.476 12.558 0.583 0.242 -0.14 -0.352 -0.503 -0.034 404 0.922
Andrew Putnam $7,900 $10,200 $13,700 1.118 -0.666 33.703 0 0.035 0.089 -0.152 -0.165 -0.038 172 1.656
Austin Cook $7,300 $9,500 $12,600 1.427 -1.015 -8.989 0 -0.553 0.218 0.156 -0.014 -0.039 492 1.383
Corey Conners $7,100 $8,500 $12,500 0.825 -0.415 15.516 0 0.189 0.256 -0.427 -0.215 -0.039 371 0.956
Chesson Hadley $7,100 $9,100 $13,100 0.966 1.329 8.35 -0.044 0.367 -0.151 -0.157 -0.214 -0.04 381 1.263
Johnson Wagner $6,500 $8,200 NA 0.81 0.568 3.016 0.214 -0.409 -0.242 0.175 0.05 -0.042 469 1.117
John Senden $6,000 $7,100 $10,300 0.703 0.245 2.077 0.124 -0.297 0.053 -0.144 0.05 -0.043 760 -0.404
Robert Garrigus $6,600 $7,400 $10,900 0.627 0.679 3.244 0.115 0.301 -0.674 -0.272 0.283 -0.049 656 0.326
Sam Saunders $6,400 $7,600 $11,200 0.635 0.938 8.642 0.09 -0.007 0.116 -0.266 -0.183 -0.05 493 0.757
Dominic Bozzelli $6,800 $8,100 $12,000 0.6 -0.493 23.92 0 0.157 -0.074 -0.031 -0.362 -0.062 402 0.653
Adam Schenk $6,500 $7,500 $10,900 0.615 -0.215 4.87 0 -0.055 -0.057 -0.209 0 -0.064 500 0.937
Whee Kim $6,400 $7,400 $10,400 0.44 0.362 -23.587 -0.13 -0.499 0.022 0.028 0.241 -0.068 752 0.371
Rafa Cabrera Bello $8,300 $10,600 $14,500 1.923 1.088 8.504 -0.046 0 -0.396 0.511 -0.416 -0.069 315 1.879
Ben Silverman $6,200 $7,700 $10,700 0.524 -0.615 7.11 0 -0.188 0 -0.209 0 -0.079 595 0.49
Mackenzie Hughes $6,500 $7,800 $10,900 0.71 0.643 6.038 0.424 -0.199 -0.25 -0.031 -0.388 -0.089 543 0.688
Tyler Duncan $6,200 $7,300 $10,300 0.358 -1.015 -0.069 0 -0.88 -0.369 0.478 0.307 -0.093 707 0.337
James Hahn $6,800 $8,400 $11,800 1.019 1.162 9.162 0.085 0.29 -0.24 -0.296 -0.309 -0.094 444 0.963
Russell Henley $7,600 $9,500 $13,600 1.447 1.23 10.497 -0.226 -0.396 -0.195 -0.23 0.489 -0.111 341 1.312
J.J. Henry NA $7,000 $10,200 0.258 -0.468 -11.723 0.274 -0.31 -0.379 -0.263 0.092 -0.117 787 0.222
Steve Stricker $7,100 $9,000 $12,000 1.768 1.336 -1.295 0 -0.474 -0.149 0 0.037 -0.117 433 1.773
David Lingmerth $6,800 NA $11,600 1.01 -0.295 0 -0.32 -0.299 -0.171 0.087 0.02 -0.137 636 0.561
Michael Kim $6,600 $7,100 $10,800 0.393 0 -3.934 0.08 0.095 -0.334 -0.462 -0.069 -0.138 829 -0.278
Nick Taylor $6,800 $7,400 $11,600 0.754 0.985 10.4 -0.257 0.077 -0.365 0.155 -0.311 -0.14 516 0.582
Rory Sabbatini $6,600 $7,800 $11,400 0.789 0.209 10.139 -0.362 -0.066 0.017 -0.152 -0.141 -0.141 368 1.257
Patrick Cantlay $9,800 $11,000 $15,700 2.306 1.461 13.148 -0.144 0.102 -0.176 -0.141 -0.358 -0.143 239 2.399
Ricky Barnes NA $7,500 $10,300 0.537 0.776 0 -0.041 -0.311 -0.183 -0.103 -0.113 -0.15 707 0.243
Wes Roach $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 0.229 0.385 4.142 0 0.218 -0.262 -0.185 -0.547 -0.155 560 0.754
Colt Knost $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 0.454 -0.171 -2.956 -0.264 -0.163 0.244 -0.004 -0.593 -0.156 856 -0.862
Alex Cejka $6,300 $7,200 $10,300 0.813 0.802 3.159 -0.395 -0.201 -0.273 0.161 -0.106 -0.163 544 0.915
Beau Hossler $7,300 $9,300 $12,900 1.312 1.005 13.058 -0.189 -0.081 -0.507 -0.106 0.068 -0.163 294 1.524
Charley Hoffman $7,500 $9,100 $13,100 1.552 0.074 9.85 0.316 -0.287 -0.765 -0.336 0.215 -0.171 356 1.346
Roberto Diaz $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 -0.284 -1.415 -6.723 0 -0.461 0 -0.436 0 -0.179 767 0.33
Jason Gore $6,100 NA $10,300 -0.002 -0.182 -5.756 -0.177 -0.806 0.276 -0.307 0.113 -0.18 867 -0.435
Ernie Els $6,600 $7,600 $11,800 0.331 0.238 9.749 -0.457 0.035 0.01 -0.17 -0.318 -0.18 548 0.578
Ben Crane $6,300 NA $10,600 0.584 -0.081 -4.631 -0.421 -0.084 -0.385 -0.039 -0.041 -0.194 668 0.661
Jerry Kelly $6,700 $7,800 $10,800 0.916 -0.707 1.533 -0.546 -0.083 0.065 -0.01 -0.54 -0.223 776 -0.214
Matt Every $6,200 NA $10,500 -0.3 -0.413 0 -0.565 -0.404 -0.075 -0.246 0.149 -0.228 682 0.406
Matt Kuchar $10,000 $11,400 $16,000 2.197 0.772 43.15 -0.726 0.108 0.27 -0.507 -0.333 -0.238 183 1.917
David Hearn $6,500 $7,500 $11,300 0.811 0.25 8.758 -0.526 -0.716 -0.221 -0.293 0.418 -0.267 585 0.533
Chad Campbell NA NA $10,000 0.806 0.101 0 -0.476 -0.24 -0.608 -0.394 0.353 -0.273 739 0.181
D.J. Trahan NA NA $10,400 -0.113 -0.758 2.744 0 0 0 -0.562 -0.862 -0.285 644 0.534
Paul Casey $9,100 $11,100 $15,500 2.319 1.883 7.93 0.152 -0.607 -0.954 -0.018 -0.019 -0.289 337 2.057
Sean O’Hair $6,700 $7,600 $11,300 0.898 0.944 9.061 -0.482 -0.071 -0.433 -0.144 -0.401 -0.306 552 0.617
Cody Gribble $6,400 $7,000 $10,300 0.052 -1.871 0.659 -0.544 -0.091 -0.899 0.027 -0.05 -0.312 800 -0.285
Andres Romero $8,500 $8,800 $14,300 0.208 -0.015 -4.473 0 -0.196 -0.569 -0.861 0.065 -0.312 808 0.124
Chad Collins $6,200 $7,000 $10,200 0.237 0.193 5.523 -0.404 -0.228 -0.549 -0.491 0.1 -0.314 789 -0.699
Graeme Mcdowell $6,800 $8,300 $12,600 1.132 -0.534 0 0 -0.641 -0.393 -0.112 -0.473 -0.324 563 0.963

About the Author

  • Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

  • Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.

Comments

  • AZUribe

    Josh; Key angle was Small Greens!!! Missed it.

  • futureoffantasy

    @AZUribe said...

    Josh; Key angle was Small Greens!!! Missed it.

    Haha shoot! That’s an interesting one in terms of the course fitting people’s eye. As far as small greens leading to fewer greens hit, this event has actually yielded average-to-easy greens hit due to so many shots coming from the fairway.

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