Searching for a Specialist: Frys.com Open
Welcome to the 2015-16 PGA TOUR season! If you sneezed, you might have missed the off-season, but it’s back to the grind as we head into the Fall Series.
This week we will look for a specialist that is likely to overachieve at the Frys.com Open. To do so, we will take a look at performance on poa annua greens, par 72 courses, and finish up with performance against weak fields.
Poa annua Greens
Poa annua greens are very unique. They don’t have the grain you find in most bermudagrass greens, for instance. That means the skill is somewhat taken out of putting, or a different skillset is required, you might say. They also get bumpy as the day progresses, so patience goes a long way.
The most common region for poa annua greens is California. Having a peek at Cali performance will suffice if you can’t find a true list of events held on poa annua greens.
Luckily we do have a list of performance on poa (sg:poa) and we can compare this to each golfer’s expected strokes gained over the past two seasons. These are the 10 golfers have the largest differential. After that, I also include the remaining list of poa annua specialists:
Scott Stallings (1.369 sg:poa vs. -0.514 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (1.301 sg:poa vs. 0.041 sg:total)
Nick Watney (1.174 sg:poa vs. 0.386 sg:total)
Daniel Summerhays (1.286 sg:poa vs. 0.558 sg:total)
Charlie Beljan (0.195 sg:poa vs. -0.517 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.46 sg:poa vs. 0.757 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (1.904 sg:poa vs. 1.237 sg:total)
Spencer Levin (0.651 sg:poa vs. -0.001 sg:total)
Jim Herman (0.609 sg:poa vs. -0.033 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (0.248 sg:poa vs. -0.316 sg:total)
Everyone else that performs better on poa greens: Steven Bowditch, Hunter Mahan, James Hahn, J.J. Henry, Matt Jones, William McGirt, Brendan Steele, Cameron Tringale, John Senden, Aaron Baddeley, Pat Perez, Brendon Todd, Ryo Ishikawa, Robert Streb, Hudson Swafford.
Just like that, we’ve cut our list of potential specialists down to 26 golfers.
Many golfers miss the cut here due to pure sample size. Poa annua greens are played less than five times a season, so it’s hard to rack up a large sample size. Especially, if you miss a cut a two in those rare events.
Some of the bigger names we lost due to lack of sample size include Rory McIlroy, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka, and Justin Thomas. All four make for great plays this week, but they aren’t the specialist we seek out. .
GOLFERS REMAINING: 26
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Par 72 Courses
The green surfaces got top billing this week since poa annua events are so rare, but par 72 performance is just as important, if not more.
Taking advantage of all four par 5s is usually the key to excelling on par 72 tracks. Of the 26 golfers left in our search, here are the 13 golfers that perform better on these type of courses when compared to their weekly output.
Chesson Hadley (0.136 sg:par72 vs. -0.316 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.385 sg:par72 vs. 0.07 sg:total)
Steven Bowditch (0.24 sg:par72 vs. -0.053 sg:total)
Robert Streb (1.024 sg:par72 vs. 0.781 sg:total)
Pat Perez (0.586 sg:par72 vs. 0.347 sg:total)
Tony Finau (0.938 sg:par72 vs. 0.757 sg:total)
Matt Jones (0.562 sg:par72 vs. 0.414 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.181 sg:par72 vs. 0.041 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (-0.378 sg:par72 vs. -0.514 sg:total)
Hunter Mahan (0.468 sg:par72 vs. 0.356 sg:total)
Jim Herman (0.073 sg:par72 vs. -0.033 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (1.339 sg:par72 vs. 1.237 sg:total)
John Senden (0.544 sg:par72 vs. 0.53 sg:total)
GOLFERS REMAINING: 13
Weak Field Performance
Performance against weak fields is all about mindset. Some of the top-tier talent doesn’t feel the pressure and can “play down to their competition.” On the other hand, lesser-known players don’t have the added pressure of competing against the Jordan Spieths, the Jason Days, etc. So, they find a renewed sense of confidence.
Looking at all events with an OWGR strength of field rating that equals 250 or easier, these golfers pass the test and make up our list of specialists for the week:
Steven Bowditch (0.624 sg:weak vs. -0.053 sg:total)
Scott Stallings (0.109 sg:weak vs. -0.514 sg:total)
Bryce Molder (0.474 sg:weak vs. 0.041 sg:total)
Ryo Ishikawa (0.463 sg:weak vs. 0.07 sg:total)
Tony Finau (1.143 sg:weak vs. 0.757 sg:total)
Hideki Matsuyama (1.569 sg:weak vs. 1.237 sg:total)
Robert Streb (1.053 sg:weak vs. 0.781 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (-0.157 sg:weak vs. -0.316 sg:total)
Jim Herman (0.054 sg:weak vs. -0.033 sg:total)
The Specialist
We’ve narrowed down the field of 144 to just nine specialists. It’s important to remember these are golfers that should outperform their typical output. The key is to remember their typical output and adjust from there.
We can’t leave without crowning one specialist for the week. To start, we must note Scott Stallings and Bryce Molder’s amazing performance on poa annua greens.
While Stallings and Molder have the chops on the greens, it is Steven Bowditch who is this week’s specialist!
The Aussie is 0.293 strokes better on par 72 courses, and that is his lowest figure when we look at all three angles this week. Basically, we should expect Bowditch to outperform his typical output by a shot or more over the course of four rounds.
Given his strokes gained: total since 2013-14 is right around 0, it would be fair to project him to gain two strokes over the field this week. That’s generally good enough for a top 40. His aggressive play style always makes him fantasy friendly when he gets in four rounds.
The full Specialist Table is available for you to sort and filter to your heart’s desire. Just remember that the Fall Series brings weak fields and smaller sample sizes coming in from the Web.com Tour graduates. Adjust accordingly and best of luck this week!