Searching for a Specialist: PGA Championship

We have another big event on hand this week as the PGA TOUR preps for the second major of the season.

The course is Bethpage Black, which is a lengthy par 70 with poa annua greens. It’s been soaked with rain in the lead-up and temps are forecasted for low-to-mid 60s all week. Look for the course to play extremely long. Let’s search for a specialist to see who might like the conditions.

If you are new to the specialist search, here is a quick primer. The goal of this article is to look at a few key angles for the upcoming event and compare each golfer’s performance in those angles against their long-term baseline. For a golfer to get bucketed as a specialist, they must improve over their baseline in all five angles. At the bottom, I also include a table with the full-field rankings in each angle.

Reviewing last week, our specialist was Ryan Blaum, who missed the cut on the number. The next was Marc Leishman who backed out before the tournament with a back injury (thanks for the head up, Marc). The last two provided some value as Shawn Stefani snags a T20 at Aaron Wise picked ho-hummed a T43. Was Leishman late WD was a dagger. Let’s bounce back this week.

This week we look at Performance on Poa/Bent Greens, Long Courses, Fast Greens, Driver-Heavy Courses, and Performance in Strong Fields.

Here we go…

Poa/Bent Greens

Bethpage Black features poa annua greens. I think it’s wise to include bentgrass into the equation this week and I think that’s the case for a few reasons.

Poa and bent are both cool-season grasses and sort of go hand-in-hand. Second, poa annua in the Northeast is not quite the same as the poa annua we think of on the West Coast. Lastly, poa annua in May is not the same as poa annua in January and February when we see the most poa annua on TOUR.

Basically, we are looking at any results outside of bermuda and/or paspalum greens.

The 10 Poa/Bent Specialists:

Hao Tong Li (1.182 sg:bent/poa vs. 0.77 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.76 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.441 sg:total)
Brooks Koepka (2.668 sg:bent/poa vs. 2.354 sg:total)
Bronson Burgoon (1.145 sg:bent/poa vs. 0.834 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.405 sg:bent/poa vs. 2.098 sg:total)
Tyrrell Hatton (2.141 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.855 sg:total)
Kevin Tway (1.399 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.14 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.09 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.869 sg:total)
Danny Willett (0.881 sg:bent/poa vs. 0.672 sg:total)
Patrick Reed (2.147 sg:bent/poa vs. 1.953 sg:total)

Quantity: The golfers that have the most strokes gained on Poa/Bent Greens since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, Tony Finau, Jason Day, and Paul Casey.

We’ve been targeting Keith Mitchell recently on bermuda tracks, but we are back on poa so we can go back to fading him. He shows up last on this list.

Long Courses

Bethpage is listed as a 7,459-yard layout but will likely be set up shorter each day this week.

Despite the shortened yardage from the scorecard, it will still play extremely long. The course has received a lot of rain over the last few weeks so there won’t be much roll on the fairways. Add in cold temps and the ball won’t fly as far, either.

The Top 10 Long Course Specialists:

Corey Conners (1.606 sg:long vs. 0.956 sg:total)
Max Homa (0.781 sg:long vs. 0.149 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.903 sg:long vs. 1.466 sg:total)
Keith Mitchell (1.743 sg:long vs. 1.324 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.421 sg:long vs. 1.01 sg:total)
Ryan Palmer (1.737 sg:long vs. 1.351 sg:total)
Cameron Smith (1.627 sg:long vs. 1.325 sg:total)
Sam Burns (1.345 sg:long vs. 1.058 sg:total)
Dylan Frittelli (1.432 sg:long vs. 1.199 sg:total)
Sungjae Im (2.136 sg:long vs. 1.915 sg:total)

Quantity: Golfers with the most weighted strokes gained on long courses since 2014 are Justin Rose, Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, and Paul Casey.

As I’m typing this, Max Homa is winning the long drive competition at the event. It’s no wonder he likes the longer layouts.

Most of the names on the list are longer hitters, but course management and/or elite short game can also get the job done on long courses.

Fast Greens

During previous majors hosted at Bethpage Black, they’ve talked about target a stimp at 14 to 14.5 feet. That is lightning fast.

The rain in the lead-up won’t let them reach 14 feet this week, but we should expect to see championship speeds of 12.5 feet or faster.

The Top 10 Fast Green Specialists:

Abraham Ancer (1.812 sg:fast greens vs. 1.124 sg:total)
Michael Thompson (1.547 sg:fast greens vs. 0.929 sg:total)
Kyle Stanley (1.97 sg:fast greens vs. 1.354 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.6 sg:fast greens vs. 1.01 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.966 sg:fast greens vs. 1.441 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.405 sg:fast greens vs. 1.888 sg:total)
Bronson Burgoon (1.297 sg:fast greens vs. 0.834 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.423 sg:fast greens vs. 0.96 sg:total)
Luke List (1.999 sg:fast greens vs. 1.576 sg:total)
Ian Poulter (2.073 sg:fast greens vs. 1.715 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Fast Greens since 2014 are Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Rose, and Rickie Fowler.

Playing on fast greens comes down to a few things. One, comfort or familiarity on similar speeds. Next, it puts a premium on approach play. You need to hit into the proper landing zones to minimize three putts and also to avoid short-siding yourself when missing the greens.

Strong Field Events

The PGA Championship features a lot of fluff on the backend of the field list, but it’s still a loaded field. We began the week with every single golfer ranked 102nd in the OWGR or higher. That changed with the pre-tourney WDs, but it’s still an impressive field is lined up this week.

The Top 10 Strong Field Specialists:

Michael Thompson (1.63 sg:strong vs. 0.929 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.359 sg:strong vs. 1.894 sg:total)
Tony Finau (2.402 sg:strong vs. 2.098 sg:total)
Chesson Hadley (1.221 sg:strong vs. 0.96 sg:total)
Bryson DeChambeau (2.149 sg:strong vs. 1.888 sg:total)
Joel Dahmen (1.468 sg:strong vs. 1.22 sg:total)
Thorbjorn Olesen (1.676 sg:strong vs. 1.441 sg:total)
Steve Stricker (1.973 sg:strong vs. 1.744 sg:total)
Adam Scott (2.439 sg:strong vs. 2.218 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.687 sg:strong vs. 1.466 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained against Strong Fields since 2014 are Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy, Rickie Fowler, Hideki Matsuyama, and Justin Rose.

Big-Game Brooks is just below negative in this angle. If you look at majors only then he’d be best in the field. If you want to lean on that narrative then Koepka would also qualify as a specialist this week.

Performance on Driver-Heavy Courses

I’ve mentioned it a few times already, but Bethpage has been drenched over the last few weeks.

With soft conditions, the fairways will play wider than usual while the course overall plays longer. As a result, we’ll see A LOT of drivers hit this week.

The Top 10 Driver-Heavy Specialists:

Max Homa (1.049 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.149 sg:total)
Corey Conners (1.713 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.956 sg:total)
Bubba Watson (2.405 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.869 sg:total)
Xander Schauffele (2.392 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.894 sg:total)
Jason Kokrak (1.926 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.466 sg:total)
Sung Kang (1.47 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.01 sg:total)
Danny Willett (1.065 sg:driver-heavy vs. 0.672 sg:total)
Si Woo Kim (1.489 sg:driver-heavy vs. 1.097 sg:total)
Satoshi Kodaira (0.299 sg:driver-heavy vs. -0.08 sg:total)
Paul Casey (2.757 sg:driver-heavy vs. 2.384 sg:total)

Quantity: Most weighted strokes gained on Driver-Heavy Courses since 2014 are Hideki Matsuyama, Dustin Johnson, Rickie Fowler, Matt Kuchar, and Jordan Spieth.

Not too shocking to see names like Bubba, Xander, and Kokrak show up high on this list. When you give them the chance to utilize their best weapon, they are probably going to enjoy the course.

Baseline Performance

We now have 5 golfers that are positive in all five angles. However, there is one golfer that doesn’t fit the top-70 criteria for baseline performance.

Charley Hoffman: 84th in Year-Long Performance

Hoffman is not getting any younger and it started to show in his baseline numbers. In peak form, this would be a great fit for Charley, but he’s lost some steam over the last year. Perhaps a first-round leader bet?

The Specialist

Xander Schauffele
Bubba Watson
Tony Finau
Dustin Johnson

Bombs Away! ‘

Looking at driving distance of all drives this season, this list ranks 24th, 2nd, 5th, and 20th. If DJ and Xander didn’t play Harbour Town, they’d likely be even higher on the list.

The final leaderboard probably won’t be ALL bombers, but they certainly appear to have a big advantage to start the week.

How have these specialists fared at Bethpage in the past?

Xander: First Timer
Bubba: 18th, 10th, 13th
Finau: 12th
Johnson: 40th, 3rd, 18th

They’ve combined for six top 20s in seven tries and I’d expect that number to increase by at least three at week’s end.

The Anti-Specialists

J.J. Spaun
Patton Kizzire
Ryan Armour
Scott Piercy
Chez Reavie
Alex Noren
Russell Knox
Sergio Garcia
Daniel Berger
Jason Dufner
Brian Gay
Pat Perez
Shane Lowry
Billy Horschel
Troy Merritt
Charles Howell III

Whoa, whoa, whoa. The big name here is Sergio Garcia. He’s finished top 10 in all three visits to Bethpage. Is there something unique about the setup that allows him to play well here despite him playing poorly in similar conditions? Or is this is different Sergio now that he’s in his late 30s? After all, we haven’t seen him at Bethpage since 2012. Perhaps the course is getting a little long for him? I love Sergio for cash games still, but it might be worth a fade in GPPs, given the high projected ownership.

Super Simple Specialist Ratings

The goal of this article is to isolate course fit, to see who should outperform their baseline.

However, anyone with common sense knows that baseline talent (and current form) can’t be ignored when handicapping golf.

Combining Long-Term Skill (L52) with Current Form and Specialist Rating, we get a Top 20 ranking that looks like this:

Dustin Johnson
Brooks Koepka
Rory Mcilroy
Rickie Fowler
Matt Kuchar
Hideki Matsuyama
Tony Finau
Jon Rahm
Ian Poulter
Francesco Molinari
Patrick Cantlay
Jason Kokrak
Bubba Watson
Justin Rose
Xander Schauffele
Tommy Fleetwood
Bryson DeChambeau
Webb Simpson
Aaron Wise
Matthew Fitzpatrick

Not a lot of surprises on this list. Perhaps, Matty Fitz showing up at #20 might surprise some, but Fitzpatrick has actually done some of his best work on longer courses, despite being shorter than TOUR average.

Oh wait, where is Tiger Woods? He sits at #25 on this list. This is a simple rating system which comes with some drawbacks. Given all the golfers without a big enough sample, Tiger’s course fit gets ballooned a bit, even though it grades out pretty evenly too his baseline numbers. Perhaps, I’ll think up a way to improve that a bit. In year-long form he ranks 3rd in the field and 41st in form (lack of quantity).

Best of luck everyone!

Below is a table with the full specialist data. Any fields with a 0 in them mean the sample size is not large enough. There is a minimum of 30 rounds to qualify for each angle.

The SG:TOTAL column is a baseline performance measure (since 2014). It is time-weighted so more recent results count for more than finishes from years ago.

HISTORY column is a weighted performance metric based on course history. I’ve made tiny adjustments for sample sizes, but be sure to check on number of course rounds before blindly following this number.

FORM looks at the total strokes gained, adjusted to field strength, over the last 12 weeks (PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour).

SIMPLE RATING looks at Long-Term Skill (L52), FORM, and SPECIALIST RATING to create a simple rating that includes course fit but doesn’t overweight it.

L52 FORM looks at performance over the last 52 weeks across the PGA TOUR, Web.com Tour, and European Tour.

Golfer DK FD FDRFT SG: Total History Form Poa/Bent Long Strong Field Driver Course Fast Greens Specialist Rating Simple Rating L52 Form
Michael Thompson $6,500 $8,000 $10,900 0.929 0.127 31.12 -0.093 -0.003 0.7 0.258 0.618 0.296 343 1.361
Sung Kang $7,200 NA $12,100 1.01 1.392 58.99 -0.04 0.411 -0.021 0.459 0.59 0.28 339 0.984
Xander Schauffele $9,100 $10,900 $15,800 1.894 0 30.454 0.138 0.082 0.465 0.499 0.157 0.268 161 2.437
Max Homa $6,900 $8,500 $11,600 0.149 0 31.936 -0.288 0.632 0 0.9 0 0.249 472 0.65
Bubba Watson $8,000 $9,700 $14,300 1.869 1.734 50.19 0.22 0.184 0.14 0.535 0.138 0.244 144 1.781
Jason Kokrak $7,600 $8,900 $12,600 1.466 1.938 66.553 -0.097 0.437 0.221 0.461 0.001 0.204 141 1.653
Thorbjorn Olesen $7,300 $8,700 $11,800 1.441 0 21.813 0.319 -0.093 0.234 0 0.525 0.197 284 1.727
Tony Finau $8,800 $10,700 $15,100 2.098 1.665 40.726 0.307 0.072 0.305 0.085 0.16 0.186 114 2.585
Adam Scott $8,100 $10,200 $14,400 2.218 1.454 25.933 -0.044 0.207 0.221 0.275 0.242 0.18 211 2.264
Kyle Stanley $6,800 $8,500 $11,700 1.354 0.023 21.241 0.071 0.115 0.175 -0.176 0.616 0.16 396 1.373
Bryson DeChambeau $8,900 $11,000 $15,200 1.888 0 26.97 -0.08 0.098 0.261 -0.091 0.517 0.141 176 2.656
Corey Conners $6,800 $8,400 $11,400 0.956 0 26.09 -0.461 0.649 0 0.756 -0.258 0.137 476 0.971
Abraham Ancer $6,600 $8,900 $11,500 1.124 0 21.664 -0.014 0.026 -0.212 0.182 0.688 0.134 343 1.546
Joel Dahmen $7,300 $8,600 $12,200 1.22 0 50.917 -0.027 0.01 0.248 0.258 0.147 0.127 190 1.613
Charley Hoffman $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 1.582 1.126 36.173 0.063 0.117 0.042 0.307 0.092 0.124 365 1.281
Brooks Koepka $10,400 $11,800 $17,700 2.354 0.165 61.487 0.314 0.179 -0.044 0.014 0.132 0.119 47 2.717
Beau Hossler $6,600 $7,900 $11,000 1.237 0 1.049 0.15 -0.187 0.12 0.161 0.351 0.119 560 1.141
Cameron Smith $7,500 $9,300 $12,200 1.325 0 17.977 0.105 0.301 -0.053 0.113 0.124 0.118 408 1.414
Ryan Palmer $7,200 $8,800 $11,900 1.351 1.593 30.135 0.044 0.386 -0.02 0.089 0.091 0.118 415 1.205
Patrick Reed $8,400 $10,400 $14,100 1.953 2.347 34.893 0.194 0.119 -0.003 0.148 0.109 0.113 215 1.785
Si Woo Kim $7,200 $8,700 $12,100 1.097 0.041 24.261 0.066 -0.013 -0.139 0.392 0.254 0.112 371 1.452
Danny Willett $6,700 $8,000 $10,900 0.672 0 5.403 0.21 0.171 0.054 0.393 -0.339 0.098 573 0.913
Paul Casey $8,300 $10,000 $14,400 2.384 0.868 33.367 0.024 0.165 -0.077 0.373 0.002 0.097 193 2.005
Steve Stricker $6,400 $7,500 $10,900 1.744 0.993 3.922 0.119 0.103 0.229 -0.046 0.079 0.097 477 1.386
Aaron Wise $7,100 $8,500 $12,300 1.622 0 45.307 -0.112 0.095 -0.023 0.124 0.343 0.085 179 1.783
J.B. Holmes $6,600 $8,800 $11,400 1.474 1.234 -10.073 0.149 0.031 0.12 0.167 -0.067 0.08 584 1.249
Jon Rahm $9,500 $11,200 $16,100 2.629 0 45.221 -0.038 0.043 -0.082 0.343 0.067 0.066 120 2.566
Matthew Fitzpatrick $7,100 $8,800 $12,400 1.517 0 48.056 0.003 0.083 0.169 -0.172 0.217 0.06 188 1.733
Matt Kuchar $8,700 $10,100 $14,500 2.261 0.438 53.979 -0.141 -0.168 0.106 0.299 0.191 0.057 112 2.295
Ian Poulter $7,600 $9,600 $13,400 1.715 0.854 56.056 -0.017 -0.233 0.107 0.038 0.358 0.051 127 1.996
C.T. Pan $6,700 $8,100 $11,600 1.232 0 28.957 0.051 -0.136 0.16 0.144 0.03 0.05 307 1.609
Dustin Johnson $11,100 $12,200 $17,700 3.134 1.567 80.546 0.038 0.004 0.035 0.004 0.145 0.045 37 3.395
Jhonattan Vegas $7,100 $8,400 $12,200 1.166 1.256 62.372 -0.072 0.03 0.204 0.163 -0.102 0.045 233 1.487
Sungjae Im $7,400 $8,900 $12,100 1.915 0 59.122 0 0.222 0 0 0 0.044 225 1.538
Keegan Bradley $7,200 $9,500 $12,300 1.678 0.668 40.382 0.16 -0.084 -0.023 0.021 0.132 0.041 197 1.872
Rory Mcilroy $10,900 $12,100 $17,400 2.959 1.434 76.803 -0.079 -0.048 0.119 0.054 0.145 0.038 52 2.821
Dylan Frittelli $6,300 $8,100 $10,900 1.199 0 29.137 0 0.234 0 -0.062 0 0.034 404 1.339
Luke List $6,800 $8,600 $11,600 1.576 -0.709 17.23 -0.094 -0.003 0.112 -0.293 0.424 0.029 447 1.358
Louis Oosthuizen $7,800 $9,800 $14,000 1.914 1.631 36.393 -0.122 0.034 -0.003 0.239 -0.013 0.027 195 2.233
Hideki Matsuyama $8,500 $10,500 $14,900 2.435 0.041 56.939 -0.015 -0.1 -0.002 0.186 0.063 0.026 114 2.344
Chesson Hadley $6,500 $8,000 $10,600 0.96 0 16.037 -0.345 -0.134 0.261 -0.118 0.463 0.025 562 0.862
Harold Varner III $6,300 $7,800 $10,600 1.038 0.574 5.663 0.128 -0.304 0.112 -0.005 0.196 0.025 483 1.425
Kevin Tway $6,800 $8,700 $11,200 1.14 0 6.86 0.26 -0.027 0.113 0.09 -0.333 0.021 473 1.447
Rickie Fowler $9,300 $11,100 $16,100 2.583 1.808 74.112 -0.046 -0.089 0.052 0.216 -0.029 0.02 68 2.693
Francesco Molinari $9,700 $11,400 $15,900 2.052 -0.087 47.97 0.065 0.116 0.004 -0.334 0.226 0.016 138 2.346
Jordan Spieth $8,600 $10,600 $14,900 2.511 1.802 28.483 0.126 -0.133 -0.069 0.068 0.072 0.013 362 1.492
Justin Rose $9,900 $11,500 $16,100 2.851 0.986 32.705 0.041 -0.074 0.022 0.128 -0.092 0.005 159 3.146
Patrick Cantlay $8,200 $10,100 $14,700 2.429 0 44.454 0.036 -0.001 0.072 -0.214 0.115 0.002 141 2.607
Jorge Campillo $6,900 $7,100 $11,200 -0.169 0 71.636 0 0 0 0 0 0 360 1.113
Erik van Rooyen $6,700 $7,900 $11,300 1.065 0 50.153 0 0 0 0 0 0 385 1.167
David Lipsky $6,500 $7,900 $11,200 0.871 0 49.183 0 0 0 0 0 0 423 0.88
Justin Harding $7,000 $8,400 $11,800 0.638 0 44.883 0 0 0 0 0 0 215 1.774
Eddie Pepperell $6,900 $8,400 $12,200 2.021 0 41.678 0 0 0 0 0 0 304 1.487
Mikko Korhonen $6,200 $7,300 $10,800 -0.1 0 38.053 0 0 0 0 0 0 407 1.239
Joost Luiten $6,800 $7,900 $11,600 1.318 0 37.68 0 0 0 0 0 0 247 1.743
Julian Suri $6,400 $8,100 $11,600 1.094 0 37.087 0 0 0 0 0 0 291 1.598
Mike Lorenzo-Vera $6,600 $7,700 $10,700 0.164 0 30.17 0 0 0 0 0 0 407 1.335
Kurt Kitayama $6,400 $7,600 $10,700 0.499 0 29.25 0 0 0 0 0 0 530 0.683
Thomas Pieters $7,000 $8,700 $12,000 1.597 0 22.902 0 0 0 0 0 0 362 1.582
Alexander Bjork $6,500 $7,300 $10,400 0.319 0 19.172 0 0 0 0 0 0 505 1.18
Jazz Janewattananond $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 -0.038 0 17.085 0 0 0 0 0 0 604 0.353
Adam Long $6,200 $8,000 $10,400 1.025 0 15.677 0 0 0 0 0 0 595 0.753
Adrian Otaegui $6,400 $7,000 $10,400 0.131 0 13.646 0 0 0 0 0 0 595 0.768
Lucas Bjerregaard $7,000 $8,400 $12,000 0.791 0 12.527 0 0 0 0 0 0 478 1.361
Ross Fisher $6,500 $7,100 $10,900 1.237 0.972 11.724 0 0 0 0 0 0 593 0.842
Padraig Harrington $6,200 $7,700 $10,700 0.35 0.636 11.688 0 0 0 0 0 0 622 0.646
Richard Sterne $6,600 $7,500 $10,900 -0.21 0 11.568 0 0 0 0 0 0 588 0.888
Lucas Herbert $6,400 $7,000 $10,700 -0.045 0 10.768 0 0 0 0 0 0 572 1.077
Lee Westwood $6,800 $8,300 $11,700 1.306 1.077 10.427 0 0 0 0 0 0 421 1.593
Martin Trainer $6,400 $7,300 $10,100 0.665 0 8.855 0 0 0 0 0 0 654 0.181
Vijay Singh $6,300 $7,500 $10,300 0.442 0.904 2.621 0 0 0 0 0 0 672 0.085
Shugo Imahira $6,300 $7,400 $10,400 0.383 0 2.05 0 0 0 0 0 0 633 0.811
Y.E. Yang $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -0.053 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 675 0.28
Daniel Balin $6,100 $7,000 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Alex Beach NA $7,000 $10,100 -2.366 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Rich Berberian Jr. $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -1.951 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Justin Bertsch $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -0.116 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Jason Caron $6,400 $7,000 $10,100 0 0.267 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Ben Cook $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Tyler Hall $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Brendan Jones $6,200 $7,000 $10,300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Rob Labritz $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -0.872 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Brian Mackey NA $7,200 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
John O’Leary $6,200 $7,200 NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Casey Russell NA $7,000 $10,100 0.012 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Jeff Schmid NA $7,100 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Cory Schneider $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 687 0
Rich Beem $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 -0.486 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 729 -0.238
Craig Hocknull $6,200 $7,000 $10,100 -0.804 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 741 -1.238
Shaun Micheel $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.04 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 744 -1.86
John Daly $6,300 $7,000 $10,100 -1.447 -0.59 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 750 -2.222
Craig Bowden $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.6 -0.128 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 756 -3.238
Marty Jertson $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.199 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 759 -3.738
Tom Lewis $6,700 $7,000 $10,900 0.305 0 -1.489 0 0 0 0 0 0 582 1.309
Ryan Fox $6,600 $7,000 $10,900 1.224 0 -3.709 0 0 0 0 0 0 626 1.193
Stuart Deane $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.594 0 -5.121 0 0 0 0 0 0 799 -2.561
Ryan Vermeer $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -1.041 0 -5.444 0 0 0 0 0 0 795 -2.13
Brandon Stone $6,300 $7,100 $10,400 -0.43 0 -9.358 0 0 0 0 0 0 731 0.117
Cameron Champ $6,900 $9,300 $11,300 1.079 0 -10.746 0 0 0 0 0 0 546 1.484
Andrew Filbert $6,000 $7,000 $10,100 -2.454 0 -13.024 0 0 0 0 0 0 821 -6.512
Rod Perry $6,300 $7,200 $10,100 -3.244 0 -15.875 0 0 0 0 0 0 822 -3.969
Shaun Norris $6,100 $7,000 $10,200 -0.214 0 -21.322 0 0 0 0 0 0 802 -0.696
Gary Woodland $7,700 $9,900 $13,900 1.857 1.778 35.462 -0.004 -0.015 0.051 0.173 -0.216 -0.002 260 2.244
Adam Hadwin $6,500 $8,100 $11,300 1.469 0.438 16.106 -0.129 0.084 -0.063 0.004 0.067 -0.007 497 1.443
Martin Kaymer $6,900 $8,000 $11,800 1.21 0.101 28.097 0.083 0.015 0.078 -0.045 -0.179 -0.01 590 0.791
Sam Burns $6,800 $7,900 $10,800 1.058 0 39.688 0 0.287 -0.364 0 0 -0.015 529 0.819
Kevin Na $6,900 $8,100 $11,600 1.674 -0.108 29.683 0.008 0.194 -0.019 -0.195 -0.068 -0.016 364 1.628
Zach Johnson $7,200 $9,100 $11,700 1.818 0.843 28.191 0.09 0.211 -0.029 -0.25 -0.122 -0.02 378 1.632
Marc Leishman $7,800 $9,400 $13,700 1.998 -0.608 13.423 -0.095 0.061 -0.151 -0.161 0.233 -0.023 381 1.995
Bronson Burgoon $6,100 NA $10,300 0.834 -0.566 2.376 0.311 0.012 -0.19 -0.72 0.463 -0.025 650 1.114
Jim Furyk $7,000 $8,700 $11,800 1.721 0.838 45.427 -0.115 0.073 -0.113 -0.159 0.19 -0.025 272 1.745
Satoshi Kodaira $6,100 $7,200 $10,300 -0.08 0 -13.111 0.108 -0.183 -0.282 0.38 -0.16 -0.027 856 -0.526
Tiger Woods $11,300 $11,700 $17,400 2.397 1.687 39.762 -0.12 0.068 0.017 -0.195 0.057 -0.034 204 3.036
Kevin Kisner $7,700 $9,600 $13,000 1.582 0.847 53.515 -0.08 -0.208 -0.005 0.056 0 -0.048 322 1.526
Graeme Mcdowell $7,000 $8,500 $11,700 1.247 0.076 40.371 -0.268 0.18 0.023 -0.302 0.08 -0.057 462 1.24
Emiliano Grillo $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 1.683 2.211 10.063 -0.107 -0.09 -0.039 -0.211 0.147 -0.06 460 1.652
Joaquin Niemann $6,500 NA $10,900 1.458 0 17.254 0.18 -0.298 -0.189 0 0 -0.061 542 1.286
Jason Day $9,000 $11,300 $15,900 2.802 2.054 41.982 0.043 -0.188 -0.025 -0.095 -0.052 -0.063 212 2.655
Charles Howell III $7,000 $9,200 $11,900 1.696 0.299 37.068 -0.099 -0.017 -0.175 -0.011 -0.017 -0.064 294 1.907
Matt Wallace $6,700 $8,400 $12,600 1.501 0 42.716 0 0 -0.321 0 0 -0.064 389 1.451
Troy Merritt $6,200 $7,600 $10,700 0.783 -0.521 18.249 -0.001 -0.157 -0.003 -0.034 -0.146 -0.068 564 1.233
Hao Tong Li $7,500 $9,000 $12,400 0.77 0 27.069 0.412 -0.25 0.087 0 -0.594 -0.069 393 1.634
Ryan Moore $7,400 $8,700 $12,200 1.685 2.034 45.696 -0.28 0.13 -0.104 -0.07 -0.051 -0.075 330 1.594
Kiradech Aphibarnrat $6,500 $8,300 $11,400 1.316 0 29.211 0.167 -0.456 0.178 -0.005 -0.303 -0.084 505 1.262
Webb Simpson $7,600 $9,800 $13,800 2.098 0.793 60.529 -0.236 -0.152 -0.074 0.005 0.027 -0.086 179 2.545
Tommy Fleetwood $9,200 $10,800 $15,600 2.545 0 66.678 -0.027 0.066 -0.036 -0.365 -0.08 -0.088 175 2.451
Byeong Hun An $7,100 $8,600 $12,100 1.639 0 45.071 -0.227 -0.344 -0.195 0.186 0.119 -0.092 309 1.708
Branden Grace $7,400 $9,400 $12,200 1.583 -0.709 9.177 -0.008 0.115 -0.103 -0.111 -0.473 -0.116 630 1.199
Tyrrell Hatton $7,400 $9,000 $12,200 1.855 0 16.674 0.286 0.147 0.063 -0.521 -0.555 -0.116 424 1.733
Rafa Cabrera Bello $7,300 $9,200 $12,500 1.968 0 47.019 0.118 -0.069 0.023 -0.145 -0.517 -0.118 255 1.933
Billy Horschel $7,400 $9,000 $12,300 1.499 1.529 28.942 -0.213 -0.013 -0.106 -0.207 -0.078 -0.123 352 1.849
Lucas Glover $7,300 $9,100 $12,600 1.543 0.705 52.835 -0.318 0.118 -0.26 -0.178 0.016 -0.124 246 1.926
Shane Lowry $7,200 $8,600 $12,100 1.447 0 4.333 -0.165 -0.023 -0.257 -0.076 -0.107 -0.126 557 1.486
Kelly Kraft NA NA NA 0.531 0 11.741 0.062 -0.007 -0.355 -0.24 -0.096 -0.127 706 0.582
Pat Perez $7,000 $8,000 $11,900 1.574 -0.045 29.177 -0.148 -0.112 -0.102 -0.019 -0.276 -0.131 554 1.169
Henrik Stenson $7,900 $9,900 $13,900 2.523 0.646 45.765 0.068 -0.12 -0.014 -0.354 -0.292 -0.142 278 1.837
Brian Gay $6,300 $8,000 $10,700 1.058 0.194 19.179 -0.143 -0.125 -0.054 -0.373 -0.04 -0.147 567 1.247
Brandt Snedeker $7,500 $9,500 $12,200 1.705 1.165 31.417 0.05 -0.085 -0.284 0.121 -0.56 -0.152 484 1.342
Jimmy Walker $6,500 $8,300 $11,300 1.351 0.043 22.745 -0.18 0.018 -0.214 0.052 -0.509 -0.167 621 0.898
Phil Mickelson $8,000 $10,300 $13,900 2.111 2.052 12.999 0.151 -0.427 -0.149 -0.093 -0.322 -0.168 489 1.604
Jason Dufner $6,700 $7,900 $11,700 1.259 1.256 14.806 -0.198 -0.112 -0.093 -0.246 -0.241 -0.178 709 0.453
Brian Harman $6,700 $8,100 $11,300 1.237 1.516 18.18 0.003 -0.376 -0.037 -0.262 -0.227 -0.18 683 0.471
Andrew Putnam $6,800 $8,200 $10,900 1.099 0 1.919 0.02 0.031 -0.242 0.192 -0.912 -0.182 564 1.495
Daniel Berger $6,900 $8,500 $12,000 1.778 0.165 39.558 -0.04 -0.291 -0.036 -0.331 -0.269 -0.194 395 1.56
Sergio Garcia $7,900 $9,700 $14,900 2.184 1.642 55.416 -0.164 -0.294 -0.023 -0.18 -0.329 -0.198 238 2.129
Russell Knox $6,700 $8,300 $11,500 1.48 0.574 31.475 -0.117 -0.075 -0.174 -0.271 -0.469 -0.221 397 1.61
Alex Noren $7,200 $8,700 $12,000 1.578 0 2.567 -0.078 -0.171 -0.139 -0.245 -0.55 -0.237 574 1.486
Chez Reavie $6,600 $8,400 $11,200 1.566 1.12 16.941 -0.223 -0.18 -0.203 -0.151 -0.454 -0.242 492 1.563
Danny Lee $6,300 $7,900 $10,700 1.08 -0.146 15.749 0.086 -0.381 -0.401 -0.089 -0.513 -0.259 585 1.298
Keith Mitchell $7,300 $8,200 $12,500 1.324 0 57.791 -0.698 0.419 -0.743 -0.004 -0.296 -0.264 435 1.247
Michael Kim $6,100 $7,000 $10,100 0.33 0.041 -20.725 0.091 -0.309 -0.64 0.084 -0.565 -0.268 896 -0.468
Scott Piercy $6,500 $8,100 $12,400 1.3 1.085 40.826 -0.074 -0.484 -0.405 -0.127 -0.325 -0.283 436 1.431
Ryan Armour $6,100 $7,500 $10,400 1.015 0 25.749 -0.064 -0.08 -0.602 -0.428 -0.261 -0.287 582 1.202
Richy Werenski $6,200 NA $10,300 0.779 0 15.41 0.05 -0.796 -0.134 -0.053 -0.618 -0.31 660 1.021
Patton Kizzire $6,200 $8,100 $10,600 0.872 -0.146 22.809 -0.224 -0.39 -0.259 -0.289 -0.735 -0.379 662 0.757
J.J. Spaun $6,400 $7,800 $10,800 1.059 0 9.046 -0.421 -0.182 -0.381 -0.658 -0.991 -0.527 684 1.087

About the Author

  • Josh Culp (futureoffantasy)

  • Josh didn’t own a set of golf clubs until after college but his love for the game now grows exponentially. He uses in-depth statistical analysis while trying to avoid the landmines that come with using traditional, outdated PGA stats. He can be found elsewhere writing for Rotoworld and Future of Fantasy. He can be found on twitter @futureoffantasy.

Comments

  • Becki

    Hey Josh,
    I saw In the last couple weeks comments about others being happy you brought back the “Anti-Specialist”. Could you explain what the Anti Specialist is as I’m a bit of a new reader. Thanks – and thanks for a very well researched and insightful article.

  • AZUribe

    Josh you missed main angle: Performance in majors!!!

  • lp3alaska

    thanks again josh for the most underrated article in all of dfs

  • yisman

    @Becki said...

    Hey Josh,
    I saw In the last couple weeks comments about others being happy you brought back the “Anti-Specialist”. Could you explain what the Anti Specialist is as I’m a bit of a new reader. Thanks – and thanks for a very well researched and insightful article.

    it’s the opposite of specialist. Guys who have performed poorly in this week’s styles.

    Basically guys that appear to be a poor fit for the tournament.

  • yisman

    getting crushed!

    https://www.fantasydraft.com/ticket/9259851

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