Seige's Slate Strategy: Monday, March 20th
Welcome to another edition of Seige’s Slate Strategy. The last few weeks I’ve gone through and broken down the slate in terms of guys I want to play at the mid tier and the cheap level, which is an extremely important skill to have, but I want to pivot today to talk about fading. You can’t play 10% of everyone in tournaments, which means you are going to have to pick guys to not play (even if they are in good spots). There are many reasons to fade, ranging from ownership to lack of upside, and I’m going to hopefully talk about all of them over the next couple weeks.
Author’s Note: These are plays I plan on fading at the time of writing; based on news that comes out after publication, that could change.
FADE: Russell Westbrook – $13,400 – Oklahoma City Thunder
Let’s start with a hot take that shouldn’t be that hot: Russell Westbrook is a bad numbers play. Sure, there is a major Narrative Street factor against the Warriors and he will for sure be motivated, but DFS is still a numbers game and they just don’t match up. First, there is very limited value on the slate (Taurean Prince being chalk value sums it up), so paying for Westbrook costs you a ton in terms of roster construction. Second, 6x for Westbrook is 80.4 FD points. That’s an insane number, and even if you don’t need that from your superstars, it’s nice to get (more so on a slate with limited value options). Even if you go with a more reasonable 5.5x, that’s still a 73.7 FD point night, and those don’t happen all that often. Third, he isn’t even contrarian according to the @ChrisGimino projected ownership, which has him at 35%. So in review, I can fade a guy I don’t think gets to 6x more than 10% of the time (that might be optimistic), who is going to be 35% owned on a slate with no value. Russell Westbrook is the first X in the Lineup Builder for me.
FADE: Nikola Jokic – $10,500 – Denver Nuggets
This absolutely pains me because I love rostering Jokic and he’s one of my favorite players to watch, as he makes an insane pass every quarter, but again, this is a numbers game and right now they don’t match up for Jokic. Jokic will be popular given the 237 total on this game, but the problem is Jokic just doesn’t have any upside at this price. Again, we ideally want the player to show some 6x ability which would be 63 FD points, but since the Mason Plumlee trade, Jokic hasn’t played more than 33 minutes in any game. This is alarming because most superstars are getting 35-38 minutes a night, and as amazing as Jokic is, he hasn’t gone for over 53 FD points since the trade, which takes him firmly out of play for me.
FADE: John Wall – $10,200 – Washington Wizards
John Wall is a player I almost always fade because he’s consistently overpriced. Coming in at $10,200, I’m looking for a player to get 55-56 FD points with upside of 60 FD points on a semi-regular basis, and Wall for all of his consistency, doesn’t flash the upside often enough given his ownership every slate, so he becomes a regular fade. Working against Wall on this slate is the depth of PG position, as I have at least six guys ranked ahead of him. The dream matchup makes this fade annoying, but it’s a correct decision.
FADE: Paul George – $8,100 – Indiana Pacers
Paul George is as inconsistent as they come, and now he’s overpriced at $8,100 in a matchup against a slow Jazz team. The total is only 192 and people will roster George because of the belief he’s a star player. George — unlike most star players — rarely gets to the free throw line, making it hard for him to get free points. He has to earn them all through shots, and since he doesn’t get a lot of peripheral stats, you are reliant on him scoring 30+ real-life points just to get to 5x on FD, let alone 5.5x or 6x. While the value options at SF are risky and carry no floor at all, the sheer number of options should allow for one or two to pop, which makes paying for the Paul George floor on this slate a big mistake.
As always, if you have any comments or questions feel free to post in the comments, and with that, good luck in your games everyone!