Should You Buy or Sell the Hard Knocks Hype?
HBO’s Hard Knocks has chronicled the training camps of NFL teams during the lead up to the regular season, focusing on coaches and players as rosters are trimmed down and the squads prepare for the quest to hoist the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The most recent season of Hard Knocks, the show’s 13th, featured the Cleveland Browns. Despite the team’s abysmal 1-31 record over the previous two seasons, the Browns have generated a lot of buzz as an offseason darling and a sexy pick to make a run at the AFC North title should the team be able to turn it all around. The question is, should you be buying or selling the hype that comes with teams featured on Hard Knocks?
How Do Hard Knocks Teams Perform in the SuperContest?
In addition to the Browns, the five most recent teams to be featured on Hard Knocks are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2017), Los Angeles Rams (2016), Houston Texans (2015), Atlanta Falcons (2014), and Cincinnati Bengals (2013). In the Las Vegas SuperContest, those five teams have a collective record of 40-38-2 against the contest spread. The best team of the five was Cincinnati in 2013, who posted a very solid record of 10-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the SuperContest. Outside of the Bengals, the other five teams didn’t fare so well, with only the Texans in 2015 posting a winning ATS record of 9-7. Those numbers alone don’t provide much confidence when looking at a highly hyped team coming out of Hard Knocks, but let’s dig a little deeper.
If you were going to put one of the Hard Knocks teams on your weekly SuperContest card, you’d feel best doing so if the team was playing at home and doing so as a favorite. That said, you’d likely be riding the wave with a lot of other contestants as the combination of a hyped-up Hard Knocks team and a home favorite can be as popular as it gets in the NFL. If we look at the Bucs, Rams, Texans, Falcons, and Bengals during the years they were featured on Hard Knocks, we see that the teams were 23-16-1 ATS in the SuperContest. As home favorites, those teams performed 13-8 ATS in the SuperContest. The Bengals were the best performer of the group with an 8-0 home record ATS. Of those home games, Cincinnati was a home favorite seven times and covered all seven times.
The 2013 SuperContest numbers posted by the Bengals do skew things, Without them, the other four teams have a losing record in the contest at 30-33-1 and don’t provide confidence any way you slice it. As favorites, the Bucs, Rams, Texans, and Falcons were 12-14 ATS. As underdogs, those four were 16-18-1. At home, they were 15-16-1. On the road, they went 15-17. Oftentimes you get opposite results when comparing teams as favorites versus as underdogs or home versus away, but that was not much of the case with these squads.
Should You Bet Over or Under on Win Totals?
Even more hype surrounds the Hard Knocks teams when it comes to their season win total bets, which tend to hover right around the range of 7.5-9.5 wins. This year, most sportsbooks have the Browns with a win total of 5.5 or 6. That’s reflective of the public praise the team is receiving – praise that is only heightened by the team being featured on Hard Knocks – and what appears to be a very talented roster, at least on paper.
The team drafted number one and four overall, taking quarterback Baker Mayfield, who looks impressive so far, and cornerback Denzel Ward. Josh Gordon is a freak of nature when he’s of right body and mind, Jarvis Landry is a reception machine, David Njoku looks to be the league’s next best thing at tight end, and the backfield has Carlos Hyde, Duke Johnson, and highly touted rookie Nick Chubb. Let’s not forget about the standout player Myles Garrett is on a defense that is also getting a fair amount of love. Is all of this talent going to translate to wins, though?
Here’s what we know. First, we know the Browns have been a pretty big disaster in recent seasons, exemplified with the team’s 1-31 record the past two years. Second, many people are out on head coach Hue Jackson, although the team did add Todd Hayley as offensive coordinator and Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator. Third, teams coming off a preseason in which they were featured on Hard Knocks have cashed more win total under bets than they have overs.
Of the five recent Hard Knocks teams we’ve already talked about, only two of them have come in on the over – the Texans in 2015 went 9-7 with a win total of 8.5 and the Bengals in 2013 went 11-5 with a win total of 8.5. The Bucs, Rams, and Falcons were well under .500 and nowhere near cashing in on the over.
If we look before 2013, as Hard Knocks has featured seven other NFL training camps, those teams are 2-4-1 on the over. All told, if you bet the over on wins for teams featured on Hard Knocks that year, you’d be 4-7-1 overall.
The popular bet will be to bet the Browns over on 5.5 or 6 wins, but this gambler believes the sharp side is to take the under. Going against the public and having history on your side should bring you plenty of confidence.