Sonty's Single Entry Series: NFL Week 13
This DFS content is a part of our Premium Content Schedule and designed to help you build better lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo!, SuperDraft, and other daily fantasy contest providers. Access NFL Projections, Expert Rankings, Projected Ownership, NFL DFS Picks, and other Data Tools using this content hub. For our world-class optimizer that offers a suite of tools and information designed to help you crush the competition, please head to LineupHQ!
Single entry is a different type of game from cash games, as they’re tournaments with top-down payout structures; and different from mass-multi-entry play in that we’re firing a single bullet. Yet, the common flaws are usually that the field puts cash-style lineups into single-entry spaces — not enough correlation or leverage; or the field will over-leverage for the size of their contests.
In this space, we’ll take a look at the higher-projected plays and discuss how to use these chess pieces to maximize ROI, using projection with correlation and leverage. The most important dynamic we see at play is that the chalk absorbs far more ownership than in MME contests from the middle tiers of ownership.
First, we’ll look at stacks; then, we’ll go position-by-position.
STACKS
CHALK — Jaguars
This chalk makes sense. JAX travels to DET to play in a dome at a time where a lot of games are being played in colder weather and the stack is cheap. Trevor Lawrence should easily drop back 40 times in this one. Christian Kirk has 10, 7, 9, 12, and 9 targets since Week 7; Zay Jones has 10, 3, 5, 10, and 15 over that stretch. This offense has consolidated and — again — they’re all too cheap.
The problem is that there’s nothing esoteric about all of this. Everyone knows that the DET defense stinks and that the dome will elevate the offenses. Everyone knows that the JAX defense stinks , so this should be a shootout.