2023 Sony Open Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

by Joe Cistaro (joeycis) Last Updated 2023-01-09 16:43:38

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down golf betting tips for the 2023 Sony Open. Use the PrizePicks promo code GRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

The PGA Tour continues the Hawaii swing to start the new year with a trip to Honolulu and Waialae Country Club for the 2023 Sony Open. In sharp contrast to the Sentry TOC, players will be forced to be accurate, as Waialae CC is tight with difficult fairways and greens to hit. While the field won’t be as stacked as last weekend, the event still boasts plenty of talent to kick off the golf betting season.

Today, we preview the field, betting odds, the course, and some players to watch.

Sony Open Odds at BetMGM Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 9th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 45/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the Sony Open at Waialae CC:

• 2022 – Hideki Matsuyama (-23)
• 2021 – Kevin Na (-21)
• 2020 – Cam Smith (-11)
• 2019 – Matt Kuchar (-22)
• 2018 – Patton Kizzire (-17)
• 2017 – Justin Thomas (-27)

Jordan Spieth and Tom Kim headline a field lacking a bit of the star power that last week’s Sentry TOC was able to book. Seven players from the OWGR are in the field with Spieth’s 14th ranking the highest mark. Last year, Hideki Matsuyama chased down Russell Henley to win in a playoff after a beautiful second shot into a par 5 locked up the victory. Henley, like other previous winners, fits the archetype for this course as an approach wizard that isn’t necessarily that long of a hitter.

Tom Kim will likely receive much of the acclaim this week as he continued his strong play with a tie for a top-five finish in the powerful Sentry TOC field. Tom Hoge, also in this week’s field, finished top five in the event after an incredible -9 performance in the final round of the tournament.

Hideki Matsuyma did not make a big move in the Sentry TOC but should be expected to return in decent form. K.H. Lee booked a top-ten finish after shooting -6 in the final round. Russell Henley never got it going last week while Brian Harman finished in the top 20 with a respectable -18 performance. Harman’s game will profile well at a course like Waialee with a premium and accuracy and short game.

All in all, the field will feature 144 golfers and will be cut down to the top 65 and ties after two rounds. Eight of the previous nine winners at the Sony Open have played the previous week. 19 of the golfers in this week’s field played at the Sentry TOC. Let’s take a look at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii.

2023 Sony Open Betting Preview

• Course: Waialae CC
• Date: January 12 – 15
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,044 yards
• Greens: Bermuda

Waialae CC is a course that will test the metal of golfer’s ability to find fairways and set up angles for approaches to the green. Fairways and greens will not be easy to come by and around-the-green play will be crucial.

Not a particularly long course, plodding, accurate golfers with good short games can get it done with an emphasis on SG: Approach. The group of previous winners does not suggest a need for distance. Instead, fairways will be crucial. Good drives or fairways gained will be a big consideration when modeling for this course.

A par-70, the course only flaunts two Par-5’s. The two holes rank as some of the easiest on tour and nearly every player in the field will be able to make the green in two. There are 12 Par 4’s on the course with ten falling within the 400-500 yard bucket. When building a model, we will want to include eagles as well as this range for Par 4’s.

The weather will be a factor if the winds pick up. Winds are the true defense for this course besides the narrow fairways. When Cameron Smith won at -11 in a playoff against Brendan Steele, the weather gave the golfers a fit. However, if the weather holds up like last week, we should see a birdie fest.

The bermuda rough has been grown out to about 3 inches this year for the event – a ¾ inch bump from the typical course layout. This puts an even greater emphasis on hitting fairways and being in the best position to approach greens.

SG: OTT does not feel as important this week and driving distance certainly won’t be considered. Every player is capable of getting home given this length. Afterward, those who can roll a hot putter will contend.

Given the ability for everyone in the field to hit these greens on the Par 5’s, eagles or Par 5 scoring should be in consideration for our modeling stats. Players will need to take advantage of these birdie holes to have any chance at contending on the weekend, especially in a festival of birdies.

I will incorporate putting as well, especially when considering those players who played in last week’s event. However, performance last week will not be the end-all as Hideki Matsuyama could not make a putt at least year’s Sentry TOC but had the putting weekend of his life at the Sony Open.

With these notes and statistics in mind, let’s highlight a few golfers in consideration for this week’s betting card and DFS lineups.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Tom Kim +1200

Tom Kim has taken the PGA Tour by storm and is going to be heavily considered this week for DraftKings lineups as well as potentially as a bet. The outright odds are a little too steep for me but Kim immediately vaults into consideration as a one-and-done pick to open the season.

Kim leads the field in strokes gained over his last 36 rounds. This stems from a top ranking in SG: Approach and 2nd overall in SG: T2G. Further, he is second in the field in fairways gained. While he might not make the betting card, Kim needs to be the top option for one-and-done this week and as such will be a very popular player. Too early for game theory, in my opinion.

Russell Henley +2500

Despite the collapse last season, Henley clearly has a good feel for Waialae CC. A previous winner, Henley finished second to Hideki Matsuyama in a playoff last season.

Over his last 36 rounds, Henley leads the field in good drives, is third in fairways gained, and fifth in GIR. He did not play all that well last week but the Sony Open presents a comfortable landing spot for the approach wizard.

Si Woo Kim +4500

Si Woo Kim is a favorite at courses that compare well with Wailae CC. Sedgefield CC and Harbour Town are other favorite courses for Si Woo Kim. This week should be no different.

Kim sits 11th in SG: Approach. The issue? Putting. Kim regular putts himself out of tournaments. If he can gain any positive strokes with his putter he should be able to vault himself into contention this weekend.

Brendan Steele +8000

Speaking of bad putting, Brendan Steele is third in SG: T2G in the field with a very lofty price tag. Steele came in 2nd and 4th in 2020 and 2021, losing to Cam Smith in a playoff in bad weather.

Steele struggles with the putter but will give himself plenty of opportunities and looks at birdie. He leads the field in GIR gained over his last 36 rounds.

Good luck this week, everyone. Check back for my betting card by Tuesday evening on the site in a follow-up article.

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card. Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

Image Credit: Imagn