Sports Card Investing: 2012 NBA Prizm Rookie Checklist
Topps Chrome was the flagship set for NBA cards, but Topps didn’t renew their NBA license in 2011, so an opening was created for Panini to take over the NBA card market. Prizm was released in 2012 for the first time and has been the most sought after set for collectors and investors. Prizm in 2012 is also unique because there was a lockout in 2011 which caused Panini to not produce any rookie cards in 2011. So 2012 Prizm includes both the 2011 draft class and 2012 draft class. It has also become popular for the simple fact of it being the first year of the prizm. Even veteran cards in the set sell very well because it’s their “prizm rookie card”.
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Kawhi Leonard 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
The first rookie card I want to look at is Kawhi Leonard. His PSA pop report shows 1299 base cards, 12 greens and 55 prizm “silvers”.
His BGS pop report shows a total of 987 for all variations. It’s very interesting that 9 of the 10 golds were graded through BGS. So there is still one gold Kawhi out in the wild somewhere ungraded.
Using the Market Movers tool we can see an increase of 94% in PSA 10’s versus only a 64% bump in BGS 9.5. This is a possible spot to target based on subgrades to crossover to PSA. Combined that leaves just over 2000 Kawhi prizm rookies graded between both companies. In a market with hundreds or thousands of collectors/investors entering the hobby on a weekly basis, these are incredibly scarce supply.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Anthony Davis 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
Next up is Anthony Davis. Slightly higher PSA pop compared to Kawhi and also two gold parallels. Also a slightly better PSA 10 percentage at 72% compared to 66% for Kawhi.
Davis has an even better 9.5 percentage through BGS as 75% of the cards submitted got a 9.5. There are 5 golds submitted through BGS so that leaves 3 gold ungraded.
The market movers tool shows us that we can get Anthony Davis rookie cards for a nice discount compared to Kawhi rookie cards. His prices have not seen the same price bump that Kawhi cards have seen either. I expect these cards to jump more as the Lakers progress through the playoffs and potentially win a championship.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
LeBron James 2012 Prizm Rookie Card (1st Prizm Card)
Next up is LeBron James. This is his first prizm card so many collectors/investors are drawn to it for that reason. We see drastically different pop report numbers compared to AD and Kawhi. That’s not out of the ordinary as people or more likely to grade rookie cards than they are base cards. These numbers could increase as there are likely many people sitting on ungraded 2012 Prizm LeBrons and are now just sending them in. LeBron is still a good long term buy regardless of that. I believe this set will continue to be the iconic set for NBA Panini products for years to come.
There have been no BGS sales tracked by the market movers tool over that last 90 days so we are just looking at PSA 10 and PSA 9 sales for the base variation. The thing that jumps right out is the decrease in price for PSA 9. This screams buy to me right now as there are only 138 PSA 9’s of this card in existence. I can see the chart on this card trending back up once the season resumes and for the long term as LeBron’s career continues and he continues to pass legends in the statistical record books.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Kyrie Irving 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
In taking a look at Kyrie, we see that the total population on PSA and BGS is very similar but there is a large difference in silvers at BGS. That is somewhat surprising as the gem rate at PSA is 76% vs a 64% 9.5 rate at BGS.
Using the Market Movers tool we can see an almost identical increase in price change percentage for both PSA 10 and BGS 9.5. Given the GEM percentage of PSA 10’s I do think it’s possible to look into BGS 9.5’s with good sub grades for possible crossover. If you can purchase a Kyrie BGS 9.5 for $200 then pay $10-20 for PSA crossover through a group submission then you’re looking at possibly over $100 profit if you want to flip.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Kyrie Irving Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Klay Thompson 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
Next up is Klay Thompson. Klay has just under 800 total cards graded combined so his pop is very low compared to the other rookies we have looked at so far. His GEM rate on silvers at PSA is also only 53% compared to almost 66% at BGS. So I wouldn’t be looking to do crossovers from BGS but if I was able to buy some Klay’s in raw form, I would be looking to send them to BGS over PSA. There might have been a production run issue with the Klay cards that might be downgrading the cards in PSA eyes/standards.
The market movers tool also shows us that the BGS and PSA cards are selling for a very similar price. Based on the gem rate data, this makes me think that the PSA 10 cards might be undervalued currently because there is usually a larger gap between PSA and BGS prices. It was also just announced that Klay has been cleared for full basketball activities. This could be great time to get his PSA 10’s before they jump even more.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Klay Thompson Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Damian Lillard 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
Damian Lillard has a similar POP total as Kyrie. As well as a similar difference in silvers at BGS compared to PSA. Silvers for Damian are grading at a very high rate at both companies. PSA is at 83% and if you combine 9.5 and 10’s at BGS the rate is 88%. If I was able to find a raw Lillard silver that looked good I would take my chances with BGS to try for a BGS 10 (11% rate). BGS 10’s fetch a much higher premium than PSA 10’s.
We can see from the Market Movers tool that there have been nearly identical amounts of sales of both BGS 9.5 and PSA 10 Lillard base prizms. Lillard probably isn’t a guy for a quick flip at his current prices as his more expensive than both Kyrie and Klay. I do however like his long term value as I believe his career trajectory trends towards the hall of fame. His value would almost certainly increase if he were to change teams in the next few years and go to a larger market.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Damian Lillard Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Kemba Walker 2012 Prizm Rookie Card
We are now looking at guys with much lower pop reports. Kemba Walker has just over 400 prizm rookies graded combined between both PSA and BGS with over 300 of them at PSA. This is a little surprising because the current gem rate at BGS is 90% compared to 68% at PSA. So if you’re buying Kemba’s raw then BGS might be your best option for a gem.
Using the Market Movers tool, as expected, we see very few BGS sales compared to PSA sales. The percentage increase for BGS sales is trailing behind PSA as well. In my opinion when you factor in the gem rate for BGS and the slower increase in price, that makes buying raw and submitting to BGS the best chance for bigger future profits.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Kemba Walker Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Next up is Bradley Beal. Beal has just over 500 total cards graded combined so his totals are still on the lower end of the top rookies for this set. His GEM rate at PSA is also only 69% compared to almost 86% at BGS. So similar to Klay and Kemba, I would be looking to buy raw and send to BGS for a better chance at a gem.
The market movers tool shows us a similar chart to Kemba. Very few BGS sales compared to PSA and a smaller increase in price over the last 90 days. Beal is a guy that I think has a lot of room for growth if he were to switch to a contending team in the next few seasons. I think his value is hurt slightly by the Wizards poor record over the last few years.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Bradley Beal Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Jimmy Butler has just over 500 combined cards graded. His gem rate at PSA is 73% versus 79% at PSA. With such a similar gem rate, PSA looks like the way to go for grading Jimmy Butler prizm rookies.
We can see from the Market Movers tool that BGS sales have seen a huge increase in price versus PSA. This is much different from most of the other cards we have looked at. This could mean two things. One is that BGS prices are inflated for some unknown reason. Two, Jimmy’s PSA sales are about to see a correction in pricing and see a nice jump. I lean towards option two and I think that PSA sales could push the $400 mark for Jimmy especially if the Heat make a run in the playoffs.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Base Raw
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Silver Raw
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Base PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Silver PSA 10
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Base BGS 9.5
Buy now: 2012 Jimmy Butler Prizm Silver BGS 9.5
Thanks guys and good luck with your buying! Remember to subscribe to SportsCardInvestor.com and the promo code ROTOGRINDERS for your 20% off your first payment with SCI.