Sports Card Investing - 6-15-20 PSA 9 Targets
Welcome back to another edition of our Targets article! I liked the YouTube feedback we got on last week’s corresponding video so I think I’m going to continue with some PSA 9 recommendations this week too and take a look at a Project 2020 card which has been falling off a cliff. As a reminder from last week’s article, the price action on some PSA 9 cards tend to follow PSA 10 cards. So when a PSA 10 card has a sudden spike, it may take some time for the PSA 9 card to catch up to the pace. This gives us an opportunity to predict the price action of a lagging PSA 9 card simply by comparing it’s chart to the PSA 10 counterpart. In order to find some names to demonstrate this trend and give us this week’s targets, I’m going to use SportsCardInvestor.com’s “Price Movements by Card” list which you can access today as well by signing up for a Market Movers Subscription where if you use the promo code ROTOGRINDERS you can get 20% off your first payment on any subscription.
We will generally target Panini brands for football and basketball as they own exclusive NFL and NBA rights for sports cards. Just like DFS, be sure to manage your bankroll and don’t spend more than what your budget allows. Make sure you pay attention to the grading when looking at targets. Grading makes a huge difference in price, so price targets will be based on grading. An ungraded card is referred to as “Raw”. When targeting a Raw card, try to find one with the best centering, corners and edges (and surface if you can tell) as that is a card that might be worth sending in for grading. We’ll use SportsCardInvestor’s Market Movers data to evaluate current-market price targets based on what people have been paying most recently. Go above/below that market rate based on your convictions and confidence levels by player.
Sports Card Investing – 6-15-20 PSA 9 Targets
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LeBron James – The first player we are looking at today actually has 2 cards which look interesting. With the Lakers being one of the favorite NBA teams to make the finals this year, we can anticipate some LeBron Fever over the next couple months as millions of people continue to long for some sort of live sports action besides golf or Nascar. When the NBA resumes it’s season, we can anticipate a ton of excitement surrounding the league especially for one of it’s biggest stars. But how do we invest in LeBron’s expensive cards? We target his PSA 9s and take the discount on the card while cashing in on the potential gains.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
As you can see from the chart on his 2003 Topps Chrome PSA 9 and10 cards, his PSA 10 has had a recent spike up to $9,400 while the price action on his much more affordable PSA 9 has remained relatively flat holding at $2,750. If you were looking to make a big investment in a LeBron rookie card ahead of the season resuming the PSA 9 might be the card for you and you have an opportunity to jump on it before it follows that PSA 10 price action. Back on May 28th, before the PSA 10 spike, the PSA 9 was worth 35% of the PSA 10 value. As of June 15th it is only worth 31% of the value which looks like a potential for a 10%+ price increase in the PSA 9 could be a reasonable estimate.
You can buy the 2003 LeBron James Topps Chrome PSA 9 card at this link I would target it under $2,750
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
If you’re looking for a more affordable version of a LeBron “Rookie” card, you can take a look at his first Prizm card, the 2012 LeBron James Prizm card. The Base PSA 9 is currently valued at 26% of the PSA 10 price. This one is a little trickier to navigate since the price action on the PSA 9 has historically been flat whereas the PSA 10 has trended upwards. After the most recent price action on the PSA 10 it seems the PSA 9 might be undervalued at only 27% of it’s counterpart. Before the spike that number was 29%. If we think the trend could catch up to the 35% of PSA 10 value held by PSA 9 of the Topps Chrome rookie card there is a decent gain which could be made on the Prizm PSA 9.
You can buy the 2012 LeBron James Panini Prizm PSA 9 card at this link I would target it under $336
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Lamar Jackson – With the NFL offseason continues and the NBA soaking up all the enthusiasm, it is a good opportunity to take a look at some of our favorite NFL players before they become buzzy again. With Lamar we are seeing a continued upward trend overall, but a divergence in trends between PSA 9 and 10 price action over the past few sales which may provide an opportunity to buy a Lamar rookie at a discounted price. At it’s most recent sales price of $149.60 the PSA 9 is currently valued at 20% of the PSA 10 price of $738.99. Before the move it was closer to 22% so not a huge difference but if those prices continue to go in opposite directions, then it might present a good buying opportunity for the PSA 9.
Keep an eye on the 2018 Lamar Jackson Prizm Base PSA 9 card at this link Looks to target under $149 if the trends continue.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Patrick Mahomes – Patrick Mahomes is another big name which seems to have a divergent trend between his PSA 9 and 10 Prizm Silver rookie cards. As you can see from chart comparing the two 2018 cards, his PSA 10 has been on a recent spike whereas his PSA 9 has remained pretty flat. On May 24th before the prices were swinging on that PSA 10 the PSA 9 worth about 24% of the PSA 10’s price. Back on April 11, that number was 28%. As of June 15th the PSA 9 is only valued at 20% ($714.50 vs $3,499). It’s not the first time these prices have been in that 20% range but it seems like the lower end of the range since late March and presents us with a potential opportunity to acquire a discounted Patrick Mahomes PSA 9 rookie card.
You can buy the 2017 Patrick Mahomes Panini Prizm Silver PSA 9 card at this link I would target it under $714.50
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
Ichiro Suzuki – Last card I want to look at today is the Ichiro Suzuki Topps Project 2020 card by Ben Baller. This is a card that illustrates the rise and fall of the Topps Project 2020 price action. The hype drove this card as high as $4,100 at it’s peak before things cooled down and the price crashed down to $1,175 where it sits now. Let’s not forget that this is a pretty scarce card with a population of only 1,334. It is also the first card of the set, with some very nice artwork compared to others in the set in my opinion. If this was a stock I would be looking for it to drop to the $800 range which seems like a support level. If it can hold that price, it might be worth considering a purchase. There is some value to the Topps Project 2020 brand and it is a scarce card that plummeted along with other cards holding much higher populations which were printed as the popularity of the brand was soaring. Check out our Sports Card Grinders show on Tuesday where I will ask SportsCardInvestor’s Geoff Wilson his thoughts on a good target price for this card. Reminder to sign up for SportsCardInvestor Subscription using the promo code ROTOGRINDERS to receive 20% off your first payment on any subscription. I definitely recommend the Market Movers subscription so you can access all the great tools and charts which can save you a fortune as you make smarter card buying decisions.
You can keep an eye on the Topps Project 2020 Ichiro Ben Baller card at this link