Sports Card Investing Targets - Buying Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson
With the return of MLB and NBA both just a few weeks away, and all the attention focused on those cards, I’m going to take the opportunity to look for potential value in NFL cards while they may be overlooked. This week I’m going to compare similar-tiered QBs using Market Movers chart comps. You can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription. You will want to sign up for Market Movers specifically in order to access the great tools and data, and if you sign up for the annual Market Movers subscription, you will save you 20% on the entire year instead of just the first month. I’ll be adding additional targets at the end of the article from previous articles so you can see if you can still find the cards within the target range.
We will generally target Panini brands for football and basketball as they own exclusive NFL and NBA rights for sports cards. Just like DFS, be sure to manage your bankroll and don’t spend more than what your budget allows. Make sure you pay attention to the grading when looking at targets. Grading makes a huge difference in price, so price targets will be based on grading. An ungraded card is referred to as “Raw”. When targeting a Raw card, try to find one with the best centering, corners and edges (and surface if you can tell) as that is a card that might be worth sending in for grading. We’ll use SportsCardInvestor’s Market Movers data to evaluate current-market price targets based on what people have been paying most recently. Go above/below that market rate based on your convictions and confidence levels by player.
Sports Card Investing Targets – Buying Dak Prescott and Deshaun Watson
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The main comparison I wanted to do today is Dak Prescott vs Deshaun Watson vs Kyler Murray. This topic was discussed in some detail with Sports Card Investor’s Geoff Willson on our weekly Sports Card Grinders show where we discussed using player comps to determine value. I believe Watson and Dak are on a similar tier right below Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. Both Watson and Prescott are exciting young QBs who have several years of success at the NFL level. Each have been in 3 playoff games. Dak threw for 1000 more yards than Watson last season, and more passing TDs but Watson rushed for more yards and rushing TDs. I would argue that Dak Prescott is set up better to have a huge season than Watson is this season, and he plays for Dallas which is a bigger market than Houston. Both players are capable of putting up numbers, but Dak definitely has more weapons around him going into the 2020 season especially after Watson’s top weapon, DeAndre Hopkins, left for Arizona. To top it off, Watson’s PSA 10 population is 1612 vs just 765 for Dak. Yet if you check out the chart below, the prices on their Prizm PSA 10 rookie cards are almost identical. To me, this says that Dak Prescott is undervalued and his cards aren’t getting the respect they deserve. If you add another element to this comparison and add in Kyler Murray’s PSA 10 base Prizm card, he is tracking right along with both players and he’s only played one season and has no playoff experience! This might suggest that Watson’s cards are also undervalued.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
If you compare Dak and Watson’s cards to Kyler’s 2019 Prizm Silver PSA 10, it starts to get a little crazy. Something to note is that in 2016 and 2017 the Prizm Silver was the base card for rookies, while in 2019 there were both base, and Silver versions for rookies. But looking at this chart, you can see that Kyler’s Prizm Silver rookie is priced way above Prescott and Watson which is a little crazy.
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
You can see a similar trend if you compare their Optic Holo PSA 10 rookie cards:
Chart Courtesy of SportsCardInvestor.com
As an investor making a judgement call, I feel that Dak and Watson’s rookie cards should be somewhere in the midpoint between Kyler’s Silver and Base cards with Dak tracking higher than Watson given their current situations. I would be buying Dak confidently right now. I was accumulating his Prizm PSA 10 cards at the $325-$350 level and I feel like he should be valued closer to the $600-$700 range which would be about the mid-point between where they are now and what Kyler’s 2019 Prizm Silver is going for. I think Watson’s cards would be more accurately valued in the $550-$650 range. Keep in mind, this is my personal speculation based on these comps, but I’ve put my money where my mouth is on these ones and I’m hoping it plays out in my favor. Below is a table of the cards and target prices I would try to buy them at.
| Sports Card | Description | Target Price |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 10 | Target Under $380 |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver PSA 9 | Target Under $115 |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Prizm Silver BGS 9.5 | Target Under $200 |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 10 | Target Under $290 |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo PSA 9 | Target Under $110 |
 | 2016 Dak Prescott Optic Holo BGS 9.5 | Target Under $125 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver PSA 10 | Target Under $450 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver PSA 9 | Target Under $125 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Prizm Silver BGS 9.5 | Target Under $250 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo PSA 10 | Target Under $350 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo PSA 9 | Target Under $140 |
 | 2017 Deshaun Watson Optic Holo BGS 9.5 | Target Under $175 |
As always you can sign up for your own Market Movers Subscription to access the data on your own and by using the promo code GRINDERS you will get 20% off your first payment on any subscription.
As a new bonus in our articles, we are going to list all the cards from recent articles that you can check out to see if you can still buy at the target prices. Just click right on the links next to the cards to get to the eBay searches. Here are the additional targets we’ve recently featured in our articles:
