Sports Info Solutions: Week 1 MNF Prop Bets
Week 1 MNF Prop Bets
Written by: Corey March (all research conducted on the SIS DataHub)
Robert Woods over 57.5 yards
#1 The Raiders pass rush is bad. In 2017, the Raiders ranked last in the league with 160 pressures. Khalil Mack was responsible for 35.3% of the team’s pressures, the highest percentage that a single player contributed to his team’s total. Khalil Mack is now on the Bears.
#2 Jared Goff ’s pressure splits are good. In 2017, Goff led the league with a 118.9 IQR and 9.1 Yards/Att from a clean pocket (he ranked 10th and 22nd, respectively when pressure was applied).
#3 When the pocket is clean, Goff throws to the slot often. 50.1% of the time to be exact. On 328 attempts from a clean pocket, he targeted Cooper Kupp 81 times and Robert Woods 67 times. In the five games where Goff was pressured the fewest times, Kupp and Woods never received less than 7 targets each. Target leaders in those five games: Woods (8), Kupp (12), Kupp (10), Woods (11), Woods (10).
Derek Carr will throw an interception
#1 Carr is bad under pressure. The Rams got pressure to the QB at the 10th-highest rate last season (35.0%) and they added some heavy artillery to the defense over the off-season. When pressured, Carr ranked last in the league in IQR and threw 8 INTs on 121 attempts (6.6%, highest in the league). The Rams defense averaged 12 pressures per game last season. Since 2016, there have been eight games where Carr attempted 12+ passes under pressure – he threw 8 INTs.
#2 The Rams Secondary has a nose for the ball. In 2017, the Rams ranked 4th in a stat I call “Raw INTs”, which accounts for INTs and Dropped INTs. They added Marcus Peters this offseason who is known for his aggression and is second in the NFL with 11 INTs over the two last seasons.
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