Start Trusting Your Research and Stop Stressing

JMToWin

My anniversary is tomorrow – three years married to (one of) the coolest female(s) on the planet (parentheticals added for all of you who feel that your special lady is the coolest female on the planet – or for any females reading this who feel that you are the coolest female on the planet!).

How’d I do writing a hook? Did that short, to-the-point first sentence effectively capture your attention? (Crap…)

Last night, my wife and I were grabbing a bite to eat and talking about our wedding day. We moved on from that conversation. At some point, I mentioned that I still needed to write my Sunday RotoGrinders article whenever we got home (which would be at whatever time that Mayweather-Pacquiao match ended – which, as a side note, was probably an artistically awesome boxing match to true boxing fans, but for me as a casual viewer excited for the fight, I left my viewing of that fight with the same amount of adrenaline in my system as when the night had started; #justsaying). When I mentioned needing to write my RotoGrinders article (this article that you are now reading), my wife said: “Why don’t you just write about our wedding day. Write about my day before the wedding. I went to yoga in the morning with my bridesmaids, then we had breakfast, then…”

No. I’m not going to write about that. Well, not specifically. But that did trigger a thought in my mind for this article, and I decided to use this thought in place of my original article intro/foundation (that original intro/foundation – which I will now save for next Sunday – had to do with my “I’m a fan who loves watching this guy play” love affair with Jose Iglesias).

Here’s the thing: weddings are often stressful. (Yes, I know – you came here to read about baseball! We’ll get there shortly; I promise, this all ties in!) Because my wife is a photographer, however (if you want, you could join her 50,000 followers on Instagram at abby_tohline… but you probably don’t do Instagram, and let’s be honest, if you do, you probably don’t see any reason to follow an awesome account such as hers), and because she has shot her fair share of weddings, she had been around a lot of stressed-out brides – brides who had, ironically, ruined their own experience of their special day by trying so hard to make sure everything was absolutely perfect. My wife would sometimes complain about such brides: “Once you reach the wedding day, there’s really nothing more you can do. If there’s anything that’s not taken care of at that point, it’s not taken care of, and that’s fine. There’s no reason to be stressed and ruin what’s supposed to be a special day.”

Because my wife had spent time around stressed-out brides, then, she was able to resolve to not be that way on our wedding day. In the morning, she went to yoga in the park with her girls. After that, they went out to brunch. After that, I don’t know what they did, because I probably wasn’t listening closely enough when she told me about it, even though I surely tried to listen (in the same way she tries to listen when I talk about DFS, but probably does not quite hear or grasp or certainly remember everything I am saying; man, there are a lot of parentheses in this article so far! – let’s see if I can go the rest of this article with zero additional parentheses…besides this closed parentheses I need to put right here, of course). When it rained for a bit on our wedding day after she and I had our first look, while we were supposed to be taking pictures together outside? No stress. When our videographer left before we had our first dance because “the lighting wasn’t good enough anymore”? No stress. Hey, she’d done all she could leading up to the day to make sure everything was perfect; once the day started, then, there was nothing left to do. And being stressed about the things she could not control would not make anything better!

Do you see where this is going? You might think you do, but this is not about “not being stressed once your DFS games have started for the night because there’s nothing you can do about things at that point anyway.” No. It’s close, but that’s not quite it…

Instead, this is about this: “Once your teams are set, leave them alone.”

Let’s do that again:

Once your teams are set, leave them alone!

The other day, on Twitter, I said the following:

“It’s funny how quiet DFS Twitter gets about 30 minutes before games begin!”

Alex Stecco – Steccofcards on Twitter – tweeted back to say, “everybody is making last minute changes cause they don’t believe in the lineup they originally came up with”

And you know what’s funny about that? That’s absolutely true!

On second thought, maybe it’s not so funny at all…

You see, this isn’t NBA DFS, where we’re getting important news on guys who are starting and guys who are sitting right up until the moment games start. In MLB, lineups are usually released three to four hours before games start. Even west coast games almost always have their lineups out there at least thirty minutes before east coast games start – and how often do these lineups come out with something so different in them that they affect our original plan?

You see? Usually, lineups are pretty much the same from one day to the next. Usually, you could build your MLB DFS lineup the night before games begin and would not have to change a thing once rosters come out! But this is not what most of us usually do.

Here’s the thing, though. This is something I realized last year. Not that I necessarily learned my lesson yet as fully as I would like, as there have still been three days so far this season on which I have made a late change to my lineup and failed to cash in cash games as a result – but even if I have not yet fully learned my lesson, I have at least realized the following truth:

Most of us build our lineups while doing our research, right? We do our research, and as we do our research, we narrow things down to the players we like the most. We then fill our team – or teams – with these players. For most of us, this is not done in those last thirty minutes before games begin. Instead, this is usually done a bit earlier in the day. But then, once we get closer to first pitch – once we are no longer immersed in our research, and are no longer making sound decisions based directly off this research – we start thinking about other things. “Will I miss out on a big game from this player?” “I think this guy will be highly owned; will I regret not having him on my teams?” And so on! And with these thoughts, we end up making changes to our teams that have nothing to do with research!

Yes, sure, sometimes these changes work. But have you noticed that it is far more frequent that such changes do not work? It is far more frequent that these late changes leave you saying, “Ahhhhh, why did I not just stick to my original team!”

It’s not some weird rule put in place by the DFS gods – dictating that you deserve to lose when you second-guess yourself. No – it is, instead, just simply that you already did your research. You already used your research to build what you felt was the best team you could build. And then, you got away from your research, and you started making changes based on everything from the feeling in your gut to the color shirt your favorite sideline reporter is wearing.

How often do these changes work for you? If you say these changes work for you more often than not, I would say you need to improve your research routine!

And if you say that these late, non-research-inspired changes hurt you more often than they help you, I would say you should be sticking to your research!

It’s like my wife on our wedding day – see? She’d done everything she could in preparation for the wedding to make it as perfect a day as it could be. Once we reached the actual day, then, stressing over everything and trying to “make sure everything was perfect” was going to be far more likely to ruin the hard work she had put in than it was to actually make things any more perfect than they already were!

You’ve done your research. You’ve built your teams based off the research and preparation you put in for that slate. Why are you then staring at your lineups and pondering different changes during those last thirty minutes before games begin? There’s nothing you can do at that point to make your “perfect team” any more perfect than it already is! Kick back at that point. Relax! Enjoy the “most perfect team you could build that day” and the results this team brings your way. Even if the videographer leaves before your first dance, don’t worry about it; you’ve already done all you can in preparation to make things as perfect as they can be, and trying to make things better at that point is probably only going to to make things worse!

A FEW STATS TO THINK ABOUT IN YOUR RESEARCH THIS WEEK

Even though that intro alone could probably be considered a complete article – simply in the way it will hopefully benefit you in this next week, and beyond, of DFS play! – I still want to dig into some stat-specific stuff. Because: Baseball.

Instead of looking at some specific stat-related trends we have seen in baseball over the last week or two, however, I am going to use today to look at some specific stats you may not normally use! These are stats that I have been enjoying using lately, and are a great way for you to create an edge in your research that others do not have!

The first stat I want to look at is one that no one really talks about, and that is a pitcher’s “pitches per plate appearance.”

Why is this stat important? Well, while some imagine that the number of pitches thrown per plate appearance is largely dependent on the hitter, the pitcher actually has a lot to do with their own stats in this area, as some pitchers – even some high-strikeout pitchers – tend to nibble at the plate a lot in order to get their strikeouts or even their outs. Such pitchers may rack up a lot of strikeouts, sure…but most of these Ks are coming on 2-2 or 3-2 counts, which means the pitcher is throwing extra pitches to each hitter, and is not going nearly as deep into games as a result. And while you could look at the number of innings a pitcher has thrown recently to get a feel for whether or not they are likely to go deep into a game, pitches per plate appearance will give you a much better idea of what is likely to happen in future games! This is particularly useful when trying to decide between two pitchers with similar numbers and similar matchups. After all, you’d much rather roll with the guy who uses fewer pitches against each batter, and who has a higher likelihood of going deep into a game as a result!

To give you a general baseline for this stat: Kershaw, Kluber, and Price expended the fewest pitches per plate appearance last year among high-strikeout arms. Kershaw was at 3.63, Kluber was at 3.68, and Price was at 3.70.

Jake Odorizzi and Zack Wheeler expended the most pitches per plate appearance among high-strikeout guys. Odorizzi was at 4.21, and Wheeler was at 4.17.

Last year, on average, it took Kershaw 27.55 batters to reach 100 pitches – and with a WHIP last year of 0.86, that means it took him until 7.14 innings, on average, to reach 100 pitches. Note: that calculation also does not account for double plays recorded – which would take him even deeper into the game before 100 pitches.

Jake Odorizzi

Last year, on average, it took Odorizzi 23.75 batters to reach 100 pitches – and with a WHIP of 1.28, that means it took him until 5.55 innings, on average, to reach 100 pitches. Even if we pretend Odorizzi had the same, minuscule WHIP as Kershaw, those extra pitches per batter would still mean he would reach 100 pitches after 6.15 innings.

To state that another way: If Kershaw’s “pitches per plate appearance” had been the same last year as Odorizzi’s, he would have reached 100 pitches more than a full inning earlier each outing! That’s not only an extra inning your pitcher is not getting you points for completing, but it is also an extra inning in which they cannot record strikeouts, and it is an extra inning that may prevent your pitcher from being on the mound deep enough into the game to leave with a lead, thus getting you those bonus points for a win!

Now, obviously, Kershaw is an extreme example, as is Odorizzi. But Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, and Ian Kennedy were all in the top 10 in the Majors last year among qualified pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings. And yet, all of them had 4.02 pitches per plate appearance. Again, even if we assigned Kershaw’s minuscule WHIP to them, that would be a full 0.70 innings earlier, on average, that they would reach 100 pitches!

Here are some guys of note with decently high pitches per plate appearance last year:

3.95 – Jon Lester
3.98 – Lance Lynn
4.02 – Collin McHugh
4.02 – Gio Gonzalez
4.02 – Ian Kennedy
4.02 – Max Scherzer
4.02 – Chris Sale
4.08 – Anibal Sanchez
4.17 – Zack Wheeler
4.19 – Drew Smyly
4.21 – Jake Odorizzi

Here are some guys of note with decently high pitches per plate appearance so far this year:

4.01 – Jake Arrieta – who was also over 3.90 last year
4.01 – Gerrit Cole
4.02 – Zack Greinke – who was also over 3.90 last year
4.03 – Mike Fiers
4.12 – Trevor Bauer
4.17 – Lance Lynn
4.26 – Daniel Norris
4.29 – Archie Bradley

Anibal Sanchez, Chris Sale, Cole Hamels, and Chris Archer are all over 3.90 so far this year as well. This is also the first time in about five years that Max Scherzer has not been near the top of this list.

For now, I would trust last year’s stats on this more than this year’s, as those stats had more time to work themselves out. But in general, I would advise you to keep an eye on this stat – you can find it easily by going to the “Expanded II Pitching Stats” on ESPN’s pitching stats page, then sorting by the “P/PA” tab – and to use this stat as a tiebreaker when considering two similar pitchers, or to use this stat to gain a better idea of how likely your pitcher is to go deep into games.

One final note: Chris Sale is always near the top of this list, but as we get deeper into the season, the White Sox are likely to let him reach 115 to 120 pitches most starts as well. That largely help to offset his deficiency in this area.

The next stat I want to look at is swinging strike percentage.

A lot of people probably just look at strikeouts-per-nine-innings when determining a pitcher’s strikeout potential. This stat is fine, but a much clearer picture of a pitcher’s strikeout potential can be found by looking at his K% on Fangraphs. And finally, K% understanding can be taken to the next level with swinging strike percentage – or, as it is labeled on Fangraphs, “SwStr%.”

James Shields

Why this stat is important: While getting called strikes can certainly be a skill, it is a less sustainable – and less predictable – skill than getting swinging strikes. The best way to use this stat is when a pitcher has experienced either a gain or a decrease in strikeouts. In order to find out if this rise/fall in Ks is simply fluky due to small sample size, or is instead something that may be a more permanent change, you can compare that pitcher’s SwStr% to the SwStr% they recorded in previous years. If their SwStr% has increased, you can probably expect the increased strikeouts to continue as well. If their SwStr% has decreased, you can expect the strikeouts to remain down as well. And if things have held steady in their SwStr%, there is a good chance a recent rise or fall in strikeouts for this pitcher will even out over time!

In order to give you some immediately usable information from your newfound understanding of this stat, here is a list of all pitchers who have an 11% or better SwStr% so far this year. The first number is the pitcher’s SwStr%, and number in parentheses (crap! – parentheses!) is their K%. Pay attention to places where a pitcher’s actual K% might be too high or low at the moment, based on their SwStr%!

15.9% (31.8%) – James Shields
14.1% (31.3%) – Francisco Liriano
13.8% (30.6%) – Chris Archer
13.8% (33.3%) – Clayton Kershaw
13.5% (31.5%) – Carlos Carrasco
13.4% (28.9%) – Tyson Ross
13.2% (25.5%) – Corey Kluber
13.0% (27.9%) – Max Scherzer
12.0% (28.9%) – Gerrit Cole
11.8% (21.1%) – Edinson Volquez
11.7% (26.9%) – Andrew Cashner
11.6% (21.1%) – Chris Sale
11.5% (27.5%) – Felix Hernandez
11.4% (27.5%) – Johnny Cueto
11.4% (27.3%) – Scott Kazmir
11.3% (25.8%) – Matt Harvey
11.3% (28.3%) – Trevor Bauer
11.2% (19.3%) – Trevor May
11.1% (23.0%) – Collin McHugh
11.1% (25.2%) – Michael Pineda

The third stat I want to look at is HR/FB

If you pay attention to Sabermetrics, you know that HR/FB (home runs per fly ball) always normalize to around 10% – meaning that for every 10 fly balls a pitcher allows, one will go out of the park. For most pitchers, their career mark will finish somewhere around this point. There are, however, exceptions.

On one end, some guys get a lot more infield fly balls and weak contact on fly balls hit to the outfield, and give up lower than 10% HR/FB as a result. One example of this is Adam Wainwright, who – in a surely-large-enough sample size of 1,566(!) Major League innings – has allowed only a 7.5% HR/FB rate.

On the other hand, there are pitchers whose pitches tend to get hit much harder. Take, for example, Joe Saunders. In his last four years in the Big Leagues, he allowed HR/FB rates of 12.4%, 10.2%, 14.5%, and – in eight glorious starts last year (uh…glorious for DFSers using hitters against him, that is) – 17%.

CC Sabathia

Of course, there is no telling from the stats alone whether they are fluky or sustainable. With Wainwright, we have enough history of him suppressing home runs that we can believe in those numbers. When guys are allowing a lot of home runs, however, you can assume they are not going to be in the Majors for long if this is a proven and consistent problem. This means that we have to rely on data from the last couple years to see which pitchers are maybe fading a bit and getting hit harder as a result. You’ll notice that CC Sabathia is one of the top names on the list below, and he is one of the reasons I started giving this stat a closer look. To me, Sabathia’s rise in HR/FB indicates that his pitches are getting hit harder than they were in previous years. Is there room for error in using this stat? Of course! There is always a chance that a guy has just been getting unlucky for a couple years! But particularly when I am wondering whether or not a pitcher’s decline is for real, a large increase in HR/FB% is a good indication – in my mind – that their pitches are getting hit a whole lot harder than they should be, which makes me feel much safer using hitters against them (home run hitters and non- home run hitters alike!).

Here is a list of some notable pitchers who have allowed a very high HR/FB% over the last two-plus seasons (starting at the beginning of 2013, and stretching to now – including only pitchers with at least 200 innings in that time span!).

16.2% – Roberto Hernandez
14.7% – CC Sabathia
13.1% – Hisashi Iwakuma
13.0% – John Danks
12.8% – Wily Peralta
12.7% – Dan Haren
12.5% – Tim Lincecum
12.5% – Mike Leake
12.5% – Hector Noesi
12.5% – Wade Miley
12.5% – Brad Peacock
12.2% – Jason Hammel
12.1% – John Lackey
11.9% – Jerome Williams
11.9% – R.A. Dickey
11.8% – Ryan Vogelsong
11.8% – Homer Bailey
11.8% – Jeff Samardzija

GO FORTH, AND PROFIT!

That’s what I have for you this week!

I’ll be on Twitter throughout the week (my Twitter handle is JMToWin, and the link to my Twitter account is in my RotoGrinders bio below), where I often tweet my pitcher rankings and/or some of my specific thoughts on each day’s slate of games. I won’t be there tomorrow (Monday May 4), as I’ll be celebrating my anniversary with my lovely wife, but you’ll be able to find me on there the rest of the week.

Now go forth, use this newfound knowledge, and profit!

About the Author

JMToWin
JM Tohline (JMToWin)

JM Tohline (Tuh-lean) – DFS alias JMToWin – is a novelist and a DFS player who specializes in high-stakes MLB and NFL tourneys, with a strategy geared toward single-entry play in multi-entry tourneys. He joined the DFS scene at the beginning of the 2014 MLB season, and has since won five DFS championship seats and two separate trips to the Bahamas. His tendency to type a lot of words leads to a corresponding tendency to divulge all his DFS thoughts, strategies, and secrets…which is exactly what he does in his RotoGrinders articles and RotoAcademy courses. You can find JM on Twitter at JMToWin.