Starting 5 - Ceiling and Consistency: Friday, April 3rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Consistency can be pretty hard to come by with teams in very different situations. Some teams are playing for nothing because they’ve either locked up their playoff position, or they’re out of the running and using the remaining games to experiment and evaluate. We need to try to find players with solidified roles that also provide consistency on a nightly basis. I’ll be using the Ceiling and Consistency tool to try to identify players I feel comfortable using in my lineups on DraftKings. As always, I’ll be using a three week view as recent trends are much more important to me than what a player has done over the course of the season.
Point Guard: Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic, $7500
Over the past three weeks, Payton is the only point guard to reach 5x greater than 75% of the time. He’s playing heavy minutes for Orlando regardless of opponent and game flow. We’ve seen both Payton and Oladipo playing garbage time in the fourth quarter when the team is down by 30, and while that’s meaningless if you’re a Magic fan, it’s fantastic if you’re using those players in DFS. Payton draws a very favorable matchup with Zach LaVine and the Timberwolves, and I think he’s one of the safest plays on the board tonight in what should be a close, high-scoring matchup between two bad teams.
Shooting Guard: Joe Johnson, Brooklyn Nets, $6100
I never thought I’d be writing Joe Johnson up as a consistent play, but that’s where we’re at. He checks in near the top of the list at 55% at 5x, which speaks volumes as to how difficult it is to find a reliable shooting guard. What’s important to me, however, is that he’s been over 30 fantasy points on DraftKings in four straight games, and he’s logging heavy minutes for a Nets team that needs to keep winning games to secure a playoff berth. The matchup with the Raptors is favorable as they’re a mess defensively, and their only good wing defender, James Johnson, doesn’t play enough. The game should be close, and fairly high-scoring, and Johnson should continue his recent production trend, making him one of the safest shooting guard options available.
Small Forward: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs, $7900
Leonard is one of very few small forward options I feel comfortable with today. There’s blowout risk here, but he should get his numbers even if the game gets out of hand. Denver is a very favorable matchup, and with Pop likely looking for any opportunity to limit the old guys, Leonard should be in for a ton of offensive responsibility tonight. Hopefully, Denver keeps the game somewhat close and Leonard is forced to play over 40 minutes. He’s still an underpriced stud, and I think the safety and upside he provides is extremely important in cash game lineups tonight.
Power Forward: Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans, $11400
There’s Davis, and then there’s just a mess at power forward. It’s not a good position at all tonight, so I’m going to try to get Davis into my lineups tonight. Nobody offers the ceiling he does, and he’s a near lock to get you at least 45-50 fantasy points every night. Tonight’s matchup with Sacramento should stay close, given DeMarcus Cousins is probably going run wild again. The Pelicans need to keep winning games if they want to take the 8th spot in the West away from the Thunder. They’re currently a game and a half out, and as long as they’re in the playoff race, expect Davis to play huge minutes every night.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings, $10000
Fading Cousins right now is probably the silliest thing anyone could suggest. His ceiling and consistency numbers already look good, but what this chart doesn’t show you is that he’s scored over 70 DraftKings points in three of his past four contests. With Rudy Gay out, he’s doing absolutely everything on both the offensive and defensive end, and I see no reason to think that’s going to stop tonight.
This will be a close game with New Orleans, and we could see quite the shootout between Cousins and Davis in terms of fantasy scoring. Cousins is very underpriced, even at $10000, and he needs to be the first guy in your lineups tonight.