Starting 5 - DvP: Monday, March 23rd
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll use DvP statistics to see if we can uncover some solid secondary plays for Monday’s difficult six-game slate.
The tables below are utilizing DraftKings scoring parameters.
Point Guard: Deron Williams and Jarrett Jack – Brooklyn vs Boston
Last Three Weeks
Over the last three weeks, the Celtics have struggled against opposing point guards and are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position over their last 12games.
While Deron Williams has been starting and Jarrett Jack coming off the bench, they have been splitting time and both are actually providing decent production for relatively nominal salaries.
My preference is Jarrett Jack, though I would not have a problem rolling with Williams, especially on the relatively light six-game Monday slate.
Shooting Guard: James Harden – Houston at Indiana
Full Season
It looks like Harden may be running out of steam, but he is still averaging between 45-50 fantasy points per game, depending on which site you frequent. He is clearly the best player going on Monday, however, he is also the most expensive, costing 17% – 21% of the salary cap.
On the season the Pacers have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, though they have dramatically improved over the last three weeks. However, The Beard is the best shooting guard in the game. Rodney Stuckey left Saturday’s game with a calf injury and George Hill has been troubled with back spasms, so Indiana may be running a little thin tonight and leaning on the understudies in C.J. Watson and C.J. Miles. This would be a bonus for Harden and help alleviate some of the concern over his recent performance, in which five of his last seven outings have been below his season average. In the first meeting against the Pacers, Harden had an outstanding game with 45 points, 7 assists and 4 steals.
Small Forward: Solomon Hill and C.J. Miles – Indiana vs Houston
Last Three Weeks
Here are a couple more discount options that will be in a favorable situation tonight. The Rockets have struggled against small forwards this season, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points in the league to the position. Further complicating the issue, they have lost Terrence Jones to injury, so their forwards are spread a little thin.
Hill and Miles are both solid plays for their reasonable price tags and both should be relatively safe for 4x value as a floor and definite upside in this matchup. I prefer Solomon Hill who is starting, but if Rodney Stuckey is out, C.J. Miles will see more court time with the second unit, which will definitely boost his production. In the last game between the Pacers and Rockets, Miles led Indiana with 23 points off the bench.
Power Forward: David West – Indiana vs Houston
Last Three Weeks
We are going back to the well once again. The first meeting between these two teams saw 208 combined points in Houston, with the Rockets winning by a dozen. There should be plenty of production consolidated in a few key places again tonight that we can use to our advantage, and picking on the Houston frontcourt is definitely one way to leverage this trend. They have been a bottom five team all season against power forwards and have been particularly horrendous over the last three weeks.
David West has once again been a very steady contributor. He has been dealing with minor injuries and had to leave Friday’s game early with an illness, and this has contributed to pushing his price tag to the lowest levels on the season. If he gets his season average, he will return 5x value on most DFS sites. He has gone for 20+ fantasy points in eight of his last 10 games, however, he has not been over 30 fantasy points in any of them. Again, this play is more about locking in an excellent price/production ratio for your H2H games.
Center: Kelly Olynyk and Tyler Zeller – Boston at Brooklyn
Last Three Weeks
Okay, to counter the metronome steady David West, here are a couple high upside tournament options. Over their last 10 games, Brooklyn has allowed THE MOST fantasy points to centers. During this stretch they are allowing 17% more fantasy points than compared to their season average against the pivot position.
Yes, I know that you are going to have to close your eyes and hold your nose when you click these guys onto your rosters, but just 30 fantasy points for either one is 6x to 7x value on their current low, low price points.
This is how tournament glory can be had gamers!