Starting 5 - DvP: Saturday, March 21st
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders with a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll use DvP statistics to zero in on players on DraftKings that are in good position to take advantage of recent trends. I find that it’s difficult to use season-long statistics for many players because a lot of the data comes from a very different situation. For example, I only care about Reggie Jackson’s numbers with the Pistons, and I only care about Chicago’s defensive ranking against point guards while Aaron Brooks has been the starter. The DvP tool allows me look at the last three weeks, which is the most relevant data to me at this point in the season.
Point Guard: Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons, $6900
It seems like every time I do one of these articles, I’m attacking the Bulls’ PG defense. They’ve been horrible since Aaron Brooks took over the starting duties. Greg Monroe likely will not play tonight, which means Jackson is in for another high usage game and a ton of shots. He’s been very good in Monroe’s absence, even posting a 42 DK point triple-double despite shooting just 4/17. He’ll shoot better than that most nights, and I think he’s very underpriced at $6900. I’ll be locking him into my lineups tonight.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $11200
We only have fives game tonight, and this is a good opportunity to illustrate that sometimes you’re just not going to find that amazing matchup that you’re looking for. I apologize for the large graphic, but if you take a look at it, you’ll see that that the only team that’s in the bottom ten over the last three weeks against shooting guards is Brooklyn. I’m sure they’ll be tired coming off a triple-overtime win over the Bucks, but trying to pick Pacers wing players is not very appealing to me.
The Suns have been middle of the pack against shooting guards, and that’s good enough for me to just lock Harden in. Sometimes there just aren’t any good options, so the best move is to roll with a stud that’s nearly guaranteed to get you at least 45 fantasy points with upside of about 70 in what should be an up-tempo, high-scoring matchup with the Suns.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets, $6300
I’ve switched to a season-long view for small forward DvP. The reason is that small forward is such an inconsistent position that a strong DvP ranking is possibly just a product of facing several teams without a good scoring threat at the position. The Suns have been one of the weaker teams against the position all season. Small forward is very thin tonight, and I think the combination of matchup and recent production makes Ariza the obvious choice. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Considering the other was against Utah, I’m confident that he’s going to continue his recent trend of production tonight.
Power Forward: Brandan Wright, Phoenix Suns, $5000
Keep an eye on the status of Alex Len tonight. If he’s unable to go, Wright will draw the start once again. If he plays, Wright probably isn’t a very good option unless Len is on some sort of strict minutes limit. I realize Wright starts at center, but he’s power-forward eligibile on DraftKings, so I’ve listed him here. The Rockets have been horrible against both opposing power forwards and centers without Dwight Howard, and they’ll be without Terrence Jones tonight as well. They’re very thin in the front court, and I expect Wright to be very productive whenever he’s on the court. The Rockets simply don’t have any good frontcourt defenders right now, and if they need to stick with this lineup for a while, expect these DvP numbers to get even worse.
Center: Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls, $6100
It wouldn’t be a DvP article if I weren’t attacking the Pistons frontcourt. Over both the last the three weeks and the entire season, the Pistons have been a disaster against opposing centers. Joakim Noah is not exactly a scorer, but he’s very mobile and the offense often runs through him.
His assists are way up without Derrick Rose, the rebounding numbers will always be there, and I expect his scoring to increase a bit in a very favorable matchup. The only drawback here is that his minutes are capped around 30-32, but given his price, I think he’s a solid play that’s a near lock for 30+ fantasy points.