Starting 5 - DvP: Tuesday, March 17th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
After a fun 10-game slate yesterday, we’re given a five-game slate that, at first glance, appears to be rather brutal. I’m not one to skip a day just because the games aren’t attractive, and there are some weaker teams that we should be able to take advantage of.
Let’s check out the DvP tool to find some exploitable matchups. I’ll be using DraftKings pricing for today’s article, focusing on numbers from the past three weeks.
Point Guard: Alexey Shved, New York Knicks, $6100
Alexey Shved is New York’s best player, winning the title from Andrea Bargnani with his recent play. Funny things happen throughout the course of the NBA season, and Alexey Shved becoming a top daily fantasy play for the rest of the season is certainly one of them, especially at a $6100 price tag. Tony Parker is in the middle of a resurgence on the offensive end of the floor, but the defense is still quite lacking. The Spurs rank fourth-worst against opposing point guards over the past three weeks. Kyrie Irving’s ridiculous performance is certainly skewing the numbers, but given the Spurs are just middle of the pack over the course of the entire season, I think we have enough evidence to prove that if you’re going to target the Spurs, point guard is a good place to start.
Shved has been extremely consistent since entering the starting lineup, easily eclipsing 30 fantasy points in each of his past four games. The blowout is a concern here, but I believe Shved should see enough court time to put up a solid score regardless of the outcome.
Shooting Guard: James Harden, Houston Rockets, $10,800
It’s no surprise that shooting guard is a thin position on a five game slate, and while there are some other plays in good spots ( Middleton and Green ), I don’t feel comfortable paying their prices when a true stud like Harden is an option. He draws a very favorable matchup against a Magic team that is ranked third-worst against opposing shooting guards over the last three weeks. The blowout is a concern here, but Harden’s very capable of putting up a huge line despite possibly seeing a few less minutes than he typically would. I don’t like fading studs on short slates if I don’t have to, and given the very favorable DvP numbers and lack of viable alternatives, I’m locking him into my shooting guard slot.
Small Forward: Trevor Ariza, Houston Rockets, $5800
I’ll admit that Ariza is a player I use very infrequently. I’m generally not a fan of inconsistent players that offer little to no upside. That said, today’s slate is ugly and Ariza has picked up his play a bit lately. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in three of his past four games. The one bad game was against the Jazz, and with the way that team is playing right now, I’m just going to ignore that performance. Ariza draws a terrific matchup against a Magic team that has allowed more fantasy points to opposing small forwards than any team in the league over the past three weeks. The blowout is a concern, but five games and three double-digit spreads, targeting the team that is projected to score the most points tonight can’t be a bad option.
Power Forward: Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies, $7200
Welcome to one of the easiest plays on the slate. Randolph checks in at a very attractive $7200. He’s coming off a big performance against an extremely weak Denver frontcourt, and now faces a Detroit frontcourt that has been completely inept defensively all season. The Pistons are second-worst against opposing power forwards over both the past three weeks and the entire season. I think this game will stay close enough that both teams will deploy their starters for a standard complement of minutes. Randolph is a high floor, high ceiling play tonight, and I’ll have a lot of exposure to him tonight.
Center: Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic, $8300
If the Magic are going to stay in this game, they’re going to need a big performance from Vucevic. This is a matchup he should be able to take advantage of. The Rockets have been unable to contain opposing centers without Dwight Howard in the lineup, and they currently rank dead last against the position over the past three weeks. They’re starting an under-sized frontcourt, and high usage centers that rebound well are in a great position to exploit them. Vucevic is a focal point of the Magic offense, and I view him as a high floor, high ceiling play in this particular matchup.