Starting 5 - Trending Stats Watch: Tuesday, April 7th
The Starting 5 Series will provide Grinders a quick look at the day’s top positional plays, analyzed through the lens of our Daily Research Tools.
Today we’ll take a closer look at the Trending Stats Watch. In particular, we’ll take a look at the “fpts” tab to see who is seeing a boost in production as we head toward the playoffs. Today, we’ll take a look at DraftKings pricing. I’ll take a Beermakersfan “happy hour” approach at four of the positions, so that we can save our money for an expensive shot at the end of the night to loosen those nerves and help us “Boogie”.
Point Guard: Ray McCallum, $4,600
Zach LaVine is listed as a SG in our database, so he isn’t showing up on the above charts, but he is certainly in play here as well and is a solid target at the “G” position on DK. However, as long as Rudy Gay remains out, I’m liking a mini Kings stack tonight, as they draw a terrific matchup with Minnesota. This is a great game to stack in general as Minnesota has some great options as well. Assuming Rudy is out, Ray McCallum makes a great target at his price point. With Gay out the past three games, he’s averaging 28.83 DK points per game, which is 12 above his season average and the 6x value that you want on DK. Minnesota struggles against every position defensively and PG is no different, as they are 29th in DVP against PGs on the season.
Shooting Guard: Ben McLemore, $4,000
Yup another King. Like McCallum, this play hinges on the status of Rudy Gay, who is listed as questionable. With Rudy out the past three games, Ben McLemore has served as option 2 behind Boogie Cousins, who as George Karl puts it is option 1A, 1B and 1C. McLemore has double digit FGA in each of the past three games, and that has translated to fantasy production – he is averaging 31.50 DK PPG over his last week, which is more than 8x salary. The matchup against Minnesota is certainly there as Minnesota is a very poor defensive team that is 27th in DVP against SGs on the season. He’s a very volatile player, but right now he is showing high upside at his price point at a tough position to fill, and opens up salary space to fit an Anthony Davis or Boogie Cousins (more on him later).
Small Forward: Chase Budinger, $5,300
If you can afford them, I love Kawhi Leonard and Andrew Wiggins as well today. However, Chase Budinger is checking in at the top of the list, and today looks like a day to get DeMarcus Cousins and/or Anthony Davis in your lineups, so we’ll save some money so that you can fit whichever top of the line option you want. Everyone keeps on waiting for the wheels to fall off the Budinger train, but it just keeps on going rolling. He’s averaging 28 DK points over the past three weeks, and actually picked up steam last week as he averaged 31 DK points per game. His price is on the rise, but he is still playing heavy minutes, despite the return of Kevin Martin and produced 6x his salary last week. Like I said, I love this Sacramento/Minnesota matchup for DFS tonight. Sacramento is a very weak defensive team and Budinger will see time as the backup SF and a stretch PF. Sacramento is 22nd in DVP against SFs and 24th against PFs over the last three weeks, so Budinger is in a great spot to continue outperforming expectations.
Power Forward: Brandan Wright, $5,200
On DK, Brandan Wright is listed as a PF, which is nice because there are several great center options tonight. Wright will draw another start for Alex Len, and has been great filling in. He’s started four games over Phoenix’s last 10, and his game log for those starts on DK reads: 32.75, 39, 40 and 36.75. He’s averaging 35 DK points over the past week, which is 19 above his season average, and that increase directly correlates with his insertion into the starting lineup. The Hawks are a great defensive team, but they have really been limiting their starters minutes recently and it has started to show up in their recent DVP stats, as they are 24th against centers over the past three weeks.
Center: DeMarcus Cousins, $10,300
Editor’s Note: DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out for tonight’s game. Rudy Gay has been upgraded to probable
Every pick I’ve given has been under 5.5K, so you might have been wondering where that salary was going. Well here you go: DeMarcus Cousins. He’s averaging 20 DK points above his season average over the past week, which is insane when you consider that he averages almost 51 DK points per game on the season. Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, who are the #1 team against centers in the league, held him to “only” 48.5 DK points. Prior to that game, he had 74.75 DK points or more in four of his previous five games. This looks like another monstrous game coming from Boogie, as Minnesota is down to Justin Hamilton at center. As a result, they are getting torched on the interior and are dead last in DVP against centers over the past three weeks. For some reason, DK isn’t adjusting his salary and he is going to be 1 million percent owned, but the matchup is just too good to fade.
There is another very attractive center option in Enes Kanter, and the nice thing with DK is that you can roster both Boogie and Kanter. Kanter actually checks in higher than Boogie on the above chart as he is averaging 49.83 DK points per game over the last week, which is 21.02 above his season average. OKC is battling for the last playoff spot so he has played 38 minutes in two of his last three games, and draws a favorable matchup with the Spurs, who are without Tiago Splitter. The Spurs blew the Thunder out of the water recently, but Kanter put up 16 points and 10 rebounds in only 22 minutes in that game.