Stat Factors: Week 13

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Week 13

Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions

Los Angeles Rams Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 TD, Points, and Yards Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 RB and WR Target Success Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Top 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 Holding Calls Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass Success Matchup

The Rams are a top 3 team in the NFL and the Lions are… not. The status as 10 point favorites on the road is logical, and they have the edge in this matchup.

Evaluating Todd Gurley may be over complicated around the industry this week due to a 3-game stretch of underwhelming fantasy outputs. In between the 20’s, Gurley still maintains a role as primary ball carrier that benefits from few stacked boxes despite being a lethal threat. Just 16.2% of his runs come against a stacked box. He has the most red zone touches (63), 11th most targets, and 2nd most carries at the position. He is swimming in opportunity to generate fantasy points and the fact that the passing game matchup is strong only increases his viability under the assumption that the offense as a whole will be more efficient. Referencing a single player like Snacks Harrison as a reason to fade Gurley is foolish. The Lions have played a pathetic schedule of opposing runners and shutting down a fat(ish) Howard-led Bears run game two of the last three weeks is worth zero consideration. We should be looking at how horrible the Lions defended the pass catching backs (4th highest RB target rate at 25.8%), and begin salivating at the opportunity for a get right spot for fantasy footballs highest upside player on fantasy footballs highest upside team – playing indoors. He’s an exceptional DFS play that should be in high consideration in all formats as a core play.

The Rams are always in a 3-WR set and that means plenty of opportunity against this dissectible Lions pass defense. I actually think that you can spin stats in a number of ways to show all three WRs as being in play for this slate, and thus I’ll shift the conversation to game theory. I suspect with 13 games on this slate the Rams may go somewhat overlooked more than they should. Jared Goff possess 4 TD upside here, and the prowess of the Rams may force the Lions to adopt a more up-tempo game plan outside their comfort zone. If they can keep it even remotely competitive, we are looking at a team that generates very little pressure (30.8%) facing a QB who destroys souls when kept clean. Goff averages 9.97 yards per attempt from a clean pocket, with a 122.4 passer rating. If you have the imagination in GPPs to foresee the Lions changing their tempo and somehow succeeding enough to keep the Rams aggressive on Offense, Goff has million-dollar upside. The same goes for the receiving group, whom you would most certainly be pairing up with Goff in 3+ player correlations.

The Factor: Todd Gurley
The X-Factor: Jared Goff


Detroit Lions Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 2 RB+ % Matchup
Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup

The Detroit offense has a razor thin advantage for fantasy purposes but in real life this could evaporate in a hurry. The Rams pass rush is intense and Matthew Stafford has been decimated in previous games, especially in the two-week stretch vs. Minnesota and Chicago when he took 16 sacks. I’ve assigned Stafford an edge based on playing at home and being a high IQ operator despite having a depleted talent corps.

The Rams are being given credit for the 3rd easiest schedule of opposing rush efficiency offenses by SharpFootballStats.com, and yet they have still allowed the third highest rush success rate (52.16%) and 9th most explosive runs (40). The quintessential plodder LeGarrette Blount is a difficult DFS play on a 13 game but for our purposes could be useful in helping the game stay competitive if he repeats the success rate seen by other backs vs. LAR. Theo Riddick is just an overpriced dart-throw at this point, but once again we’re rooting for him to find a few nice plays so that we can uncap the ceiling for some of the Rams and the Lions pass catchers.

Bruce Ellington shocked the world on Thanksgiving by managing to limbo-stick under his 3.56 aDOT from week 11 with a 3.14 aDOT week 12. On Draftkings, users won’t be looking at that as much they are looking at his 9 and 7 target total for $3500. I think it’s worth dabbling in the Ellington business in GPP but not worth framing your week inside what appears to be low leverage targets. A TD is more than possible, and if that happens suddenly you’ll feel pretty stupid if you didn’t trust the process and procure the cheap opportunity share.

Kenny Golladay – as predicted – is the Lions best WR and in my eyes a severely underpriced stud with bankable volume. He’ll often align against the burnable Marcus Peters, but it really doesn’t matter. The Lions are so likely to fall behind that Stafford should be aiming at him whether he’s open or not, and Golladay is a top-tier WR talent for jump balls and contested catches. This is a stat article, so I’ll serve you up a nugget: in the last three weeks, Golladay has team Air Yards shares of 50.3%, 87.1%, and 50%. Opportunity is raining on him, and we need to be involved with players like this in GPPs. The upside is enormous.

The Factor: Kenny Golladay
The X-Factor: Bruce Ellington

Carolina Panthers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Carolina Panthers Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 QB, WR, and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Zone Block Success Matchup
Top 10 WR Target Success Matchup
Top 10 TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 RushTD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Rush and Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 Blown Blocks Matchup
Top 10 2 TE + % Matchup
Top 10 2 RB+ % Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass% and Success Matchup

Tampa Bay has fielded one of the worst defenses in football this season, and the Panthers continue to show us they have high upside on offense. It’s a high ceiling situation for the Panthers.

Running back is the only fantasy position in which Tampa Bay doesn’t rank top 5 in points allowed, but Christian McCaffrey isn’t a typical back. He’s a “satellite back plus” – the receiving back with tremendous capability as a load-carrying runner as well. When we have to pay the kind of prices for a back that we have to pay for McCaffrey, we need to take a look at the high value touches and identify a match for the price. Here are some stats for CMC: 82 targets (Rank 3), 65.6% of team carries inside the 10 (Rank 7), 24 explosive runs (Rank 6), 286 total routes run (Rank 5), 8 explosive passing plays (Rank 1), and 18.75% of team targets inside 10 yards (Rank 8). McCaffrey is checking the boxes we need to pay a price like he carries this week, and the floor/ceiling combination created by his touch profile puts him in contention for the top RB option on the slate.

The Tampa Bay pass defense has been horrid all season, but better in the last 4 weeks. That said, it’s harder to find 3 easier matchups than Nick Mullens, Eli Manning, and the Redskins deplorable passing game. This puts us in position to love the consistency of Cam Newton despite a relative dud the last time these teams played. Tampa Bay has allowed early down success at the 4th highest rate (54.09%) and an above average rate of clean pockets (78.84% – Rank 11). Allowing Cam Newton to operate with manageable down and distance without pressure is a recipe for disaster. The upside of the Bucs absolute worst success rate allowed to WRs and 45 explosive passes (rank 3rd most) adds fuel to the fire, and propels D.J. Moore into the conversation as a potential stack option along side McCaffrey.

The Factor: Cam Newton
The X-Factor: Christian McCaffrey


Tampa Bay Buccaneers Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 TD and Points Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Top 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Bottom 10 Zone Block Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush% Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup



Tampa is implied for 25.75 points as of this writing, and it almost doesn’t matter if they are the favorite or not when the total is that high. They are – as expected – at the advantage playing at home against this beatable Panthers defense.

Peyton Barber has been defiant of the team’s lack of overall rushing success in the last two weeks, putting up serviceable fantasy numbers. They have faced the toughest schedule of opposing rush efficiency defenses according to SharpFootballStats.com, but unfortunately rush defense looks to also be a strength of the Panthers. For what feels like the 13th straight week, I am suggesting an avoid on the Tampa Run game. Carolina allows the lowest average rush yards before contact in the league at 1.26 yards, while Tampa is just 27th best at creating yards pre-contact at 1.51 yards.

Only 8 teams have seen their opponents pass more than the Panthers have (62.13%) and they often generate 20+ yard completions (41, rank 8th). It’s a good opportunity to capitalize on the Tampa Bay offense and their propensity to attack downfield. They’ve generated 55 explosive passes as a team, good for 3rd best. They also have one of the highest Pass TD ratios in the NFL at 77.14%, which suggest most of their high total can be attributed to the pass game if they reach or exceed expectations. This should all be generating blinking indicator lights for you next to the names of Jameis Winston and Mike Evans. Evans average depth of target is 14.99 on the season, and he is currently ranked #2 in the NFL in air yards. Bradberry shut him down last time out, but the volatility for a big game remains. If Desean Jackson is out, Chris Godwin would also become a very interesting play at low price tags across the industry.

The Factor: Jameis Winston
The X-Factor: Mike Evans / Chris Godwin

Cleveland Browns vs. Houston Texans

Cleveland Browns Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Total Plays Matchup
Top 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
Bottom 10 Play, Yards, and Points Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Sack % Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup

The Browns are implied for just 21 points on the road against a high caliber Texans defense. We love what Baker Mayfield is doing right now, but have to give the Texans the advantage in this spot.

Nick Chubb is receiving a heavy dose of opportunity, but is up against one of the worst run game matchups out there. The Texans allow the second worst matchup for rush success rate (41.2%) and early down success rate (42.91%). Despite being in line for roughly 80% of carries, he’ll have to do better than his recent 3 target average this week to outshine some of the elite plays on the slate. I’m not going to be on team Chubb Week 13.

Tight end fantasy points allowed stats are often noisy and rarely predictive, but if you wanted to hang your hat on production allowed by the Texans this week I wouldn’t be mad at you. They’ve allowed the most points in the NFL over the past four to guys like Jonnu, Reed, and Heurman. David Njoku is a dart throw, but otherwise, I won’t make the case for the Browns passing attack. You’re value here is purely in anti-fragility, as nobody is going to be on the passing attack here and Baker has shown us he’s taking strides towards the player we expect him to be.

The Factor: Texans DST
The X-Factor: Davin Njoku


Houston Texans Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Total Plays Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 Plays Per Drive Matchup

The Texans are a good size home favorite and playing solid football. They are beating the teams they should be beating if they are to be considered any good, and Cleveland represents another team they project to have the advantage against.

Lamar Miller hasn’t flashed anything close to what we saw on Monday in a long time, but that was once upon a time in his repertoire with the Dolphins. The matchup vs. Cleveland is superior by the numbers, though some of the Browns success rate allowed of 50.16% can be pinned to a very tough schedule of opposing backs. I expect Miller’s ownership to be above normal for him, and his carry volume to be closer to 12 (what he’s seen in 2 of the last 3 weeks) than 20 (what he saw vs. Washington). Miller is an easy fade for me, but the price point will put me at risk if he manages to score again. I have to call him a potential factor here despite the fact that I won’t personally be on the train.

The Browns continue the Gregg Williams ways of allowing plenty of fantasy production that doesn’t necessarily crush the Browns in real life. I’m totally ignoring the Demaryius Thomas game from last week. It is Hopkins who is seeing the bulk of air yards still, and still has the edge in target volume every single week. In terms of target depth, Thomas is under 5 yards per target on the season. Hopkins is a contrarian GPP play at this point, but roster construction could make it tough for this one to work out. In a vacuum, he can be played until further notice but make sure you carefully evaluate the lineup you surround him with before pulling the trigger.

The Factor: Lamar Miller
The X-Factor: Deandre Hopkins

Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants

Chicago Bears Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Rush% Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 2 RB+ % Matchup

The Bears are on the road in what looks like a potential trap spot to me on paper. They will be lining up a backup QB, but thankfully the Giants are tanking if you are indeed a Bears fan. They are just 4 point favorites but should still be considered to have the edge.

I don’t think many people are going to play Tarik Cohen or Jordan Howard this week. The matchup is middling on paper, and the price points seem rather appropriate. For Howard, you just can’t play him. He didn’t even get 50% of carries last week and isn’t used in the passing game. For Cohen, the Giants have seen a relatively lack-luster schedule of pass receiving backs so it’s hard to say if they’ll pushing targets to him. That’s his only out to a smash game, which you will need now that he’s $5,600. Even with 8 targets last week, we only got 19 fantasy points. That’s not going to be enough on this slate, and I’m not seeing enough in the Giants 10th highest 51.81% RB target success rate to get excited.

B.W. Webb sounds like a sweet name for a Poet or perhaps a construction firm, but as far as cornerbacks go it’s a name we are just fine seeing across from our starting WR in fantasy. He’s actually performed quite well per PlayerProfiler.com metrics but PFF has graded him on the low end. Looking at the players he’s previously been asked to cover, it’s really no surprise his low production allowed does not match his low grade. Allen Robinson isn’t going to have any ownership this week at all, and is the Bears clear team leader in air yards. He is surrounded by players on both sides of him like D.J. Moore, Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, and Corey Davis that will easily garner the attention of anyone who has $5,700 left over. He has an extremely low floor, but is worth mentioning among an extremely brief list of players with legitimate 100 yards and 2 touchdown upside (that is better than a dart-throw in terms of chances to achieve) that won’t be owned at all. That’s pretty rare in today’s NFL DFS landscape.

Trey Burton is facing a Giants team that allows the third highest rate of targets to the TE position (24.73%) and has somehow not given up a ton of fantasy points in the process. How does this magical circumstance occur? TD Variance. The Giants have only given up two TDs all year and you should just punch anyone who says that means something in the face. There is a boat load of luck involved in something like TD allowed to the TE, and you might start explaining the lack of receiving TDs in general with the 17 TDs they have allowed to the RB position. There isn’t anything about the actual players on this team that suggest to me they should be allowing so many of their TDs on the ground, and thus I am willing to suggest Trey Burton as an absolutely unowned GPP TE playing for a favored offense against a tanking team with a creative play calling team guiding the ship for a backup QB. It’s not the best play on the week, but I see tournament upside.

In general – the Bears passing game will be under-owned if you really think the backs aren’t in play but also think the Bears will win. Chase Daniel is experienced in the system and won’t even be the worst QB playing in this game.

The Factor: Trey Burton
The X-Factor: Allen Robinson


New York Giants Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Bottom 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Bottom 10 TE Target % and Success Matchup
Bottom 10 TD Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush% and Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Bottom 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
Bottom 10 Blown Blocks Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup

The Giants are a sinking ship, but they aren’t dead in the water if they actually try to win. I’d still say they are at the disadvantage vs. this defense, but it could be closer than we all think.

Saquon Barkley is in play, but we can hold off on the back flip this week since we aren’t nearly as excited to play him against a team that allows 17.39% of their scores to come on the ground (dead last) and 2 of them came last week at the hands of the living TD vulture legend LeGarrette Blount. Saquon obviously has immense passing game upside and can still be considered an upside play, but the concern is whether or not the Giants can actually move the ball into scoring position often enough to feel good about his TD chances. His price on Draftkings is low enough that he’ll be heavily owned, but that also gives him a massive +5.08 RGval and he looks like a defense-doesn’t-matter special based purely on that. He’s in the mix yet again.

The Bears are stingy in pass defense sporting tremendously low fantasy points allowed stats that match their success rate and efficiency metrics like DVOA. They don’t allow explosive passes and they haven’t faced a particularly easy set of opponents according to SharpFootballStats.com. The most likely outcome of the game is that they keep the Giants behind the 8-ball in terms of down and distance (Giants rank 29 in EDSR, Bears D ranks 6th). That should keep Eli Manning in tough 3rd down spots against the leagues #2 DVOA pass defense and 12th best adjusted sack rate pass rush. Get ready for Eli Face.

In the alternate reality where the Giants keep this close, Odell Beckham probably had a huge game and you can use him on the cheap at Draftkings if you really want to tell that story with your lineups.

The Factor: Bears DST
The X-Factor: Saquon Barkley

Arizona Cardinals vs. Green Bay Packers

Arizona Cardinals Skewed Matchups of Note

Bottom 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Sack % Matchup
Bottom 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 Plays Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup

The Cardinals are implied for 15 points. That’s bad, and the sad part is I’d consider the under in Green Bay.

If you want 5%-10% owned David Johnson, this is the week to get it. You’ll need to run like a diety to get value returned on that, since DJ is not getting any blocking whatsoever in the run game and won’t have possession of the ball enough to succeed in the pass game in a meaningful way. DJ owns an elite 78% MS Rush and 17% of targets in the offense, but without legitimate TD potential it’s just a huge field GPP dart. Pour one out for a wasted year for both he and Le’Veon Bell —- it’s shocking to think what DFS would be like if both of those guys were playing in high octane offenses right now.

Josh Rosen has an 82.4 IQR (independent QB rating), and there are 32 QBs that have a higher mark than that. This is where I am supposed to dig deep and find a reason to like the Cardinals, but I don’t feel like wasting your time or mine. The Packers defense could be a sharp pairing with Aaron Jones here.

The Factor: Packers DST
The X-Factor: David Johnson


Green Bay Packers Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush % Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 5 QB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup

The Packers are big home favorites against one of the worst teams in the league and are desperate for a win. Expect them to dominate.

The Cardinals have allowed 52 explosive runs which is rank #2 in the NFL, and also allow the highest percentage of rushing TDs in the league at 50%. Teams also run inside the 10 yards line vs. Arizona at the second highest rate. The Cardinals allow the second highest RB target success rate in the NFL, and the 4th highest rush % in neutral game script. The Packers are two touchdown favorites, indicating a late lead and heavy rushing volume against a defense that may be playing with reduced intensity and desire. Aaron Jones is averaging 6 yards per attempt in mostly negative or neutral scripts (-2.34 script rating on PlayerProfiler.com ranks #16). Target volume may be our only concern here as receptions drive fantasy success, but his opportunity on the ground is far too large to overthink that aspect. Aaron Jones is a potential core play on this slate industry wide.

We’re mostly fading this passing game this week, but if you must, Davante Adams is #5 in targets, #1 in Red Zone targets, #3 in touchdowns, and #1 in Dominator Rating. He’s blasted DBs of Patrick Peterson’s caliber before, and he’ll be severely under-owned given the projected game script. He’s not particularly cheap, and I’d rather spend elsewhere despite the high ceiling.

The Factor: Aaron Jones
The X-Factor: Davante Adams

Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons

Baltimore Ravens Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 QB and RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Zone Block Success Matchup
Top 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Top 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Top 10 Plays Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush TD Matchup
Top 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
Top 10 Blitz Pressure Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass Success Matchup

The Falcons are short home favorites, indicating they might be underdogs on a neutral field. The Ravens have the matchup edge on offense.

The Falcons have allowed tremendous production to the RB position, though much of that has been thanks to receiving work. They have allowed eight more receptions to RBs than the next closest team in the league. They’ve also allowed ten rushing TDs though, and thus we can’t instantly throw Gus Edwards out the window on Fanduel. PPR scoring will make it tough to consider “The Bus” (can we call him the Bus? Isn’t that name taken) on Draftkings, since his target expectation is roughly zero. This isn’t my kind of play, but you’re welcome to bet on heavy TD production if you want to.

Lamar Jackson is the viable option to consider here assuming Joe Flacco isn’t involved at all. Atlanta is 7th in the league in rush yards allowed by QBs, and Jackson’s upside is tied largely to his rushing ability. Jackson may be somewhat popular again, and I wouldn’t be in a hurry to pair him up since naked Lamar won the Million Bucks last week. The Falcons, as shown above, are also beatable in the passing game through shorter interior routes (few explosive plays allowed but high overall success rate). That’s in-line with what Jackson is likely to be comfortable with at this point.

The Factor: Lamar Jackson
The X-Factor: Gus Edwards


Atlanta Falcons Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Bottom 5 QB, RB, and WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush% and Success Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Behind Line % Matchup

The Falcons may be small favorites, but the Ravens defense is a difficult spot. If they succeed, it will be in the face of a slight matchup disadvantage.

You can’t use these backs. It’s that simple. The Ravens allow just a 41.38% rush success rate and a 40.85% RB target success rate, both bottom 4 marks in the NFL. The price points are accounting for this matchup, but there are alternatives in more favorable spots you can look to if you don’t want to swim upstream. The ownership is your only advantage here, and in my opinion, taking a Falcon runner is probably taking the worst of it even in GPPs.

I would anticipate that the Falcons will attempt to win this game via the pass. Julio Jones is unlikely to be contained when volume is likely, and I would say that volume is likely. The biggest issue here is that he’s not a tremendously likely TD scorer and the Ravens don’t give up a ton of deep balls. They also don’t allow a ton of TDs to the WR position (just 9 allowed). I’m never going to say you can’t play Julio – because he can crush any matchup. By the numbers, this one could be a good but not great output. I’d still take good if my last roster spot was a WR and I had $7,700 remaining on DK, but Diggs is $7,600 and Green is $7,400. I am not intending to get exposure to Julio at this moment, and I’m sort of sad about it. He’s still the best play on the Falcons, who I do expect to perform somewhat adequately despite the tough matchup.

The Ravens allow a healthy amount of activity to the TE position, and 2 of their 4 touchdowns allowed have come in the last 4 weeks. We know the Falcons should struggle to rush effectively, and come out with a pass first game plan. We know that the deep ball is hard to come by vs. Baltimore. We know that they have a strong, deep group of DBs that could limit Ridley, Sanu, and whomever else they want to roll with. Safeties should be focused on keeping the lid on Julio. It seems like a situation where an unowned Austin Hooper could be in line for more targets than usual. It seems like everyone has a better price on DK this week, and that’s where Hooper’s $3,900 tag is most appealing. It’s interesting for GPP if you have the balls, but the position is somewhat loaded with options this week.

The Factor: Julio Jones
The X-Factor: Austin Hooper

Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Denver Broncos Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 QB, RB, and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 Seconds per Play Matchup
Top 10 RushTD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Top 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Bottom 10 Holding Calls Matchup

It looks like a decent weather day in Cincinnati, and the Broncos are 5-point road favorites. They have the offensive edge against one of the worst defenses in the league thus far.

Phillip Lindsay has been thriving in the Broncos zone rushing scheme, thanks in part to his lightning quick acceleration to top speed and ability to get to the outside faster than his opponents. His RB Bounce rate is elevated as a result, but he’s still averaging 6.06 YPC on zone block runs and has a simply incredible 22 explosive runs on zone plays. He only has 135 total attempts on the season! The price tag is not in line with the production, and the matchup can hardly get any better (see image above). He’s in play everywhere.

Here is a little nugget from our fun we had in Preseason DFS this season. I wrote this in July:

Matt LaCosse: #teampreseason superstar in Week 4 last year, he went 5 for 60 and 2 TD. No LaCosse, No LaCash. He missed the entire 2016 season with a knee injury and with Evan Engram around never made any waves with the Giants in 2017. He was added from the Giants practice squad late last season, and according to reports, he is a player the Broncos have been watching for a while. You heard me folks: No LaCosse, No LaCash. He’s in line for more work this week than he’s ever seen before facing a Bengals team that has allowed the second most points to the TE position. He’s priced at the minimum, and I’d rather lose than fade a card-carrying member of Team Preseason when he has an opportunity like this.

The situation is incredible for the entire Denver offense, and it’s not fair to be so super biased towards LaCosse if I am being honest. Let me mention three other guys who could crush in this spot. Case Keenum is a 4.62 YPA passer under pressure and a 7+ YPA passer when clean. He’s unfortunately been kept clean at one of the lowest rates in the league at 71.12%. The Bengals have not generated a ton of QB pressure (30.73%, rank 24th), and he may actually have a chance to do something here at cheap prices across the industry. He’s very cheap on Fanduel at $6,200. Emmanuel Sanders is sitting atop Josh Hermsmeyer’s Air Yards model as noted on this week’s Episode of Aggression to the Mean, and that model has crushed this season if you are into potential millionaire maker winners on your roster. You can say the exact same thing for Courtland Sutton, who also made that model in Week 13.

The Factor(s): Matt LaCosse and Phillip Lindsay
The X-Factor(s): Case Keenum , Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders


Cincinnati Bengals Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 WR Target % Matchup
Top 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Seconds per Play Matchup
Top 10 Gap Block Success Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 Blitz Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 2 RB+ % Matchup

The Bengals are home underdogs thanks to trotting out a backup QB and some negative public sentiment. I think there is some value here in this line as the Bengals could win outright (I’m not just saying that because I have a Bengals over 6.5 wins ticket), but on paper the Broncos defense has the edge.

The Broncos are a relatively stingy rush defense but I’m not 100% saying fade a low owned Joe Mixon. I certainly do understand why he’d be low owned: Denver hasn’t been a team targeted heavily with RBs (16.49% target share, 2nd lowest), they have the second lowest rush % inside the 10 allowed (37.74%), and haven’t allowed a huge ratio of rush TDs (28.57% rush TD, 22nd). That being said, Mixon is slated for 70%+ rushing share and ~15% target share in a game where the rushing prowess of the QB may benefit his efficiency a bit. He’s a deep GPP play with multi-td upside and plenty of outs to a nice game even in a tougher matchup. I may dabble at a low exposure in game stacks.

Bradley Roby has given up some big plays this season, and A.J. Green is not the kind of guy you want to see across from you if that’s your issue. Green is somewhat re-injury prone and leaves games more often than I would like, but his ownership is going to be light compared to where we normally see it. In a game in which I can see a wide range of outcomes, I most certainly want to make at least one bet on a player with a season average 46% of team air yards facing a DB who just got roasted by Juju Smith-Schuster and has been previously smoked by Ty-freak Hill, Brandin Cooks, and Robbie Anderson. Green is viable in game stacks.

Jeff Driskel is just $4,500, and has way more than enough rushing ability to make him viable in GPPs. He’s got 96th percentile sprint speed in the 40 yard dash, and an 89th percentile SPARQ-x score per PlayerProfiler.com. By no means do I think he’s a lock. In fact, I think this game has one of the widest outcome ranges on the slate – from Broncos defensive domination to a complete shootout. Plenty of results in that range include 1 rushing and 1 passing TD from Driskel, and that’s about all he needs to payoff $4,500 DK and $6,400 FD. 3 TDs, and we’re now in business in large field GPPs.

The Factor: A.J. Green
The X-Factor: Jeff Driskel

Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
Top 10 2 TE + % Matchup
Bottom 5 RB and WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Rush % Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 3WR + % Matchup

The Colts are road favorites against an essentially eliminated Jags team that has benched Blake Bortles for the last time. They are at the advantage on offense as well, and should be at least marginally productive for DFS.

Marlon Mack has been cleared to practice, which believe it or not is a bad thing for us in DFS. We would have preferred to have seen Nyheim Hines in a more featured role, and thus I don’t think we can wager on this backfield in Week 13. The Jaguars defense slows the pace of play, and allows limited success in the run game with a 32nd ranked 40.40% rate of favorable plays. The splitting of duty once again would require us to make efficiency bets we have no business making regardless of what you think of either team as currently constructed. It’s probably safer to bet on Luck and the passing game.

Eric Ebron is your chalk TE du Jour with Jack Doyle done for the year and an already escalating share of team targets (18% last week). This goes along with his previous TD efficiency and red zone usage that was already making him a nice GPP play. The Jaguars got roasted by Ebron a few weeks ago for 3 TDs, and his price point is easy to digest across the industry. Welcome to 2018: The year when Eric Ebron was mega-chalk at least 3 times.

Andrew Luck is (somewhat) silently having a huge year, and I’m sure he could toss 3 or 4 TDs here if the pace of play allows it. I’m not going to be invested against a Jaguars defense that isn’t exactly lunch meat, but I forgive anyone who wants to invest in a QB with 3 TDs in 8 straight games.

The Factor: Eric Ebron
The X-Factor: Andrew Luck


Jacksonville Jaguars Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target % Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup

The Jaguars are home underdogs facing an improved defense, and are to be considered at a disadvantage on offense despite the fact that Cody Kessler may be an upgrade on Blake Bortles.

This is a very interesting situation with Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon. At risk of straying too far from the article theme, let me start with a stat first. Carlos Hyde was targeted 88 times in San Francisco last season. He ended up in Cleveland, where he was removed from duty as a pass catcher thanks to Duke Johnson and made expendable by the drafting of Nick Chubb. Now he lands in Jacksonville mid-season, with no chance of unseating Fournette and having no knowledge of the playbook on a team that still had hopes of clawing back into the division race. Now the hope has been drained from the team, Leonard Fournette has been suspended for being a douche, Cody Kessler is starting at QB, and T.J. Yeldon is entering a contract year with PLENTY of tape already available on him to make an evaluation on his future. The narrative I have heard time and time again this week is that Carlos Hyde could get “game scripted out” if they fall behind in the second half to a far superior Colts team. Let me paint a picture of another reality using some imagination. Imagine the Colts allow the highest RB target rate in the league at 27.15%. Imagine Tom Coughlin stating that they “want to identify their playmakers” going forward. Imagine that Carlos Hyde isn’t actually a 1 dimensional back who gets game scripted out of blowouts. Imagine the Jaguars are playing at home and still have a strong defense, and that their backup QB may have been better than the starter all along. Imagine 3 capable wideouts to help move the ball, and T.J. Yeldon serving nothing more than a situational role as he has for his entire career mostly. Imagine that Carlos Hyde is only $3,300 on Draftkings, and that this game could actually be competitive. Now Imagine if all that wasn’t your imagination at all, and it was real. I think there is some chance Carlos Hyde will be a hesitant roster for some people, or that they’ll choose to use T.J. Yeldon instead. I think I’ve made it clear where I stand – I’m gonna play some Carlos Hyde this week and let everyone else be smarter than I am for fading him. I just see this as an opportunity for the Jags to evaluate him against a division opponent, and I expect them to capitalize on it.

The Jaguars passing attack is difficult to figure out, and individually represent dart throws with other superior options in their price ranges. Playing Donte Moncreif or Dede Westbrook is plausible though, and you’ll be rostering them at near zero ownership. The Colts have the highest pass success rate allowed at 53.2%, and allow their opponents to pass from a clean pocket often (81.03%, 3rd highest). I can’t say I’ll have much interest in investing here, but if you want to play the ownership game you have some cheap guys here that won’t be owned at all.

The Factor: Carlos Hyde
The X-Factor: T.J. Yeldon

Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins

Buffalo Bills Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 RB Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Rush% Matchup
Top 10 RB Target % Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush TD Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 WR Target % and Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass% Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup

The Bills are underdogs on the road in a low total game. The Dolphins defense is hard to trust, but still holding a razor thin edge against a Josh Allen led Bills team.

You can’t trust Lesean McCoy if he’s not going to get targets and see’s 48% of the rushing work. The Dolphins would be a pretty good matchup otherwise as they have allowed the 7th most explosive runs and have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs despite having played the 3rd easiest schedule of opponents. If you want to make a bet on McCoy, you are simply betting that he gets the most action that he has seen all season. He’s dirt cheap at least, but I can’t fully rubber stamp it. Sadly, he’s still probably the biggest factor on this offense in Week 13.

Josh Allen has attempted 22 or fewer passes in 5 of his 7 games. He has 4 rush TDs, but 1 game over 40 yards in case you thought that was a reason to use him. He has 5 uber-trash WRs headlined by nude-incident star Zay Jones and the girlish-faced Kelvin Benjamin. This is not an appealing DFS team to target, and is an easy fade.

The Factor: Lesean McCoy
The X-Factor: Dolphins DST


Miami Dolphins Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 0-9 Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 5 QB and WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards, Plays, and TD Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Bottom 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup
Bottom 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup


The Dolphins are small home favorites, but they also suck. The Bills are at the advantage on defense.

Kenyan Drake managed to get loose a few times last week, but he’s still playing the role of passing down back while Gore gets the bulk of carries. Drake has alternated between games of 6 and 2 targets for the past 4 weeks. All in all, he’s second on the team in target share, but they are ultra-low leverage with an aDOT of just 4.48. He owns just 12.5% of targets inside 10 yards, and the Dolphins aren’t that likely to be inside the 10 to begin with vs. Buffalo. In my mind, he’s a low probability play.

I suppose Ryan Tannehill could do something worthy of paying off his price, but you’re asking for it in a game total of 40 against the #1 pass DVOA defense that is also lowest in fantasy points allowed to QBs and RBs. So no thanks… I’d rather play the Bills D.

The Factor: Bills DST
The X-Factor: Kenyan Drake

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Oakland Raiders

Kansas City Chiefs Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 TE Target Success Matchup
Top 10 Points and TD Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Sack % Matchup
Top 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Top 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target % Matchup

The Chiefs bring a high powered offense to face a slow and under matched Raiders defense in Oakland. The Chiefs have the edge.

Kareem Hunt will be playing with positive game script against a pourous rush defense, and has to be in the mix of top option this week. Hunt is once again a leader in yards created (324 yards, rank 7th) and constantly runs with the benefit of a light box thanks to his supporting cast (51.4%, rank 11th). The Raiders have allowed the highest rush % (51.16%) this season thanks in part to being a bad team, and the potential to see more late game hammering from Hunt is looking extremely likely. You have to like Hunt this week if you are thinking the two TD spread is even close to accurate.

Update: Kareem Hunt appears to be on track to miss this game and Spencer Ware will be next in line to pick up his workload. More detail to come.

The Raiders are super slow, and allow clean pockets at the second highest rate in the NFL at 81%. Tyreek Hill is electric, and won’t be that highly owned thanks to an insane price tag on Draftkings. On Fanduel, he’ll be a bit more popular. I pretty much expect him to have a long TD in this game, as the Raiders have already allowed 10 explosive pass TDs this season.

Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are huge ceiling players that get the slightest downgrade thanks to game script, but the offense is so concentrated that if the game gets out of hand it was likely at their hands in some way. Price is a thing though, and you’ll be asked to pay the iron price if they are anything short of spectacular.

The Factor: Kareem Hunt
The X-Factor: Tyreek Hill


Oakland Raiders Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 QB, RB, and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Zone Block Success Matchup
Top 10 Rush Success % Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Blown Run Blocks Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup

The Raiders are two TD underdogs at home. It’s a bad spot yet again for them.

On paper, this is actually a good matchup for the rushing attack. The Chiefs give up all kinds of success to the rushing attack (59.77%, rank 1) and target success to the RB (54.74%, rank 5). So how can we capitalize? Well… we can’t. This game projects to get out of hand, and even if it doesn’t we can’t trust Doug Martin or Deandre Washington for enough volume to matter. The segmentation of roles in this offense is too clear, and we don’t get anything close to enough upside to chance them. Plus, defense doesn’t matter except when I want it to, and right now I don’t want it to.

The passing game isn’t any easier to trust, but at least there is something close to upside if the Raiders are indeed trailing. Marcell Ateman isn’t a great athlete, but he’s tall and will be on the field against some DBs that have given up big plays. The Chiefs have allowed the most explosive passes in the league with 50. At his price, you could maybe help yourself afford a Chiefs stack by bringing it back with Ateman. Jared Cook is also still hanging around with a big role in this offense. He’ll have low ownership, and a better chance to have a big game than that ownership will imply. Both guys are super-thin plays, but by the numbers not off the board at all.

The Factor: Marcell Ateman
The X-Factor: Jared Cook

New York Jets vs. Tennessee Titans

New York Jets Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass% Matchup
Bottom 5 RB and TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Total Plays Matchup
Bottom 10 Third Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Points and TD Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Seconds per Play Matchup
Bottom 10 RB Target Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Gap Block Success Matchup
Bottom 10 Explosive Pass Matchup

The Jets are implied for 15 points. Gross. They are getting the worst of it on the road.

The Titans playing style has helped make it tough for their opponents to succeed in fantasy. The Jets rushing attack is among the weakest in the game, and the Titans have allowed a low success rate on targets to the RB position (rank 26th). I won’t be playing Crowell or McGuire this week.

The Titans DST is creating a lot of pressure (29.61%) and making things difficult for opposing passing game. One thing they do allow is fantasy points to WRs, and I’ve made mention several times that Malcolm Butler is a big part of that. Robbie Anderson looks like he’ll play, and we’d of course LOVE if we knew he’s be getting some shots at Butler. Adoree Jackson got burned by T.Y. Hilton though, and we can’t rule out a deep ball even if Anderson wasn’t against Butler. The better bet for floor is probably Quincy Enunwa, who gets the same matchups but appears healthier and has seen a higher target share this season. Neither option is that appealing, but neither is expensive either.

The Factor: Titans DST
The X-Factor: Quincy Enunwa


Tennessee Titans Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Rush% Matchup
Top 10 Blown Pass Blocks Matchup
Bottom 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 Yards and TD Per Drive Matchup
Bottom 10 Seconds per Play Matchup
Bottom 10 Early Down Success % Matchup

The Titans look to have the edge here at home, but their weak offense is still in a tough spot against a rigid Jets defense.

The run game has floundered in much better situation this season, and I’d be hard pressed to find something to like about the Titans in this situation. They have very limited upside in a committee back situation (Ceiling of 55% rushing share for either guy the last 6 games), and the Jets defense has been strong on early downs (45.33% EDSR, rank 29). We should have no interest here.

The Titans are likeliest to succeed using the pass game, and that means plenty of Marcus Mariota to Corey Davis. Davis is commanding huge shares of team air yards to the point where it’s ridiculous sometimes. 66%, 55%, and 47% have happened just in the last 4 games. Raw target totals have been far less impressive, but we’re just two weeks removed from 27 targets over a three week stretch. Davis is too cheap for this kind of volume and his actual skill makes him capable of much higher efficiency than we have seen this season. The matchup isn’t very good for passing overall, but the Jets don’t have a high-pressure rate and the Titans tend to prevent pressure well. It should give Mariota plenty of time to find Davis on multiple occasions.

The Factor: Corey Davis
The X-Factor: Marcus Mariota

Minnesota Vikings vs. New England Patriots

Minnesota Vikings Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 5 TE Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Top 10 Pass% Matchup
Top 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Bottom 10 Rush% Matchup
Bottom 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Behind Line % Matchup
Bottom 10 Clean Pocket Matchup

The Patriots defense has been good, and I would call this matchup neutral. If I had to lean one way, it would be towards the Vikings.

The Patriots could be a decent spot to target for RBs if we had confidence in the Vikings line, but we don’t. The Vikings lead the league in blown block % and rank just 27th in rush %. Dalvin Cook is still splitting carries with Latavius Murray (both had about 10 last week), and we’re better off leaving them for other people to roster this week.

The trio of Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Stefon Diggs is one of the best for concentrated offensive share in the entire league. Diggs and Thielen still control almost 60% of targets after 12 weeks, and control 67% of the teams air yards. The Patriots have allowed 40 explosive passes, which is 13th most. They also have allowed the 2nd highest pass TD ratio in the league (81.48%). Cousins is priced to move on both DK and FD, and should be on the short list of QBs for you this week. Pairing him with Diggs or Thielen or both in GPPs makes perfect sense.

The Factor: Kirk Cousins
The X-Factor: Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs


New England Patriots Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 5 WR Fantasy Points Allowed Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass Success Matchup

It’s a relatively neutral matchup for the Patriots against a tougher defense. Brady always finds a way though.

The Vikings run defense is very stout, and we should be expecting a very pass happy script that features a lot of short passing from the Patriots. I would expect that to phase out Sony Michel from any viability whatsoever, and the return of Rex Burkhead means we can’t really trust James White either. We can move along.

With the short quick passing game in full effect and the best CB matchup on the team, Julian Edelman has a high target ceiling in this game. He’s liable to see double-digit targets and do all kinds of damage in fantasy. He would have to score for the performance to truly pop, and this is a bottom five matchup for fantasy points allowed to the WR. That said, few WRs have the short area chemistry that Edelman has with Brady, and it would be pretty shocking for him to have a bad game.

Rob Gronkowski had a few end zone targets last week, and was able to get back into the box he loves oh so much. The Vikings do have the defensive tools to cover him better than most, but he should be relatively lightly owned and presents the rare multi-TD upside at the position that would be hard to match if he hit it. His price is superior on DK, and that’s where I’d play him if I wanted to.

The Factor: Julian Edelman
The X-Factor: Rob Gronkowski

San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks

San Francisco 49ers Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 Pass Behind Line Success Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Rush Matchup
Bottom 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup

The Niners are 10-point underdogs in Seattle, and in those conditions we favor the Seahawks.

Matt Breida came through with the rushing yards last week, but got stoned at the goal preventing us from the game we were looking for. Seattle isn’t very stout against the run and has faced the easiest schedule of rush offenses. Even with the matchup looking decent, there are too many options to get hyped about a dinged up Breida as a 10-point road underdog. I can see how it can happen for him, but I don’t see why we should bet on it.

George Kittle is priced up to the point where his high target volume is also requiring high efficiency. We didn’t get that on 12 targets last week, and the Seahawks have been stingy against TE production so far this season. Your investment in Kittle is an uphill climb, since the Seahawks have allowed the third fewest targets to the TE position at 15.38%. That said, the 49ers should be down late in the game and Kittle is absolutely explosive. Breaking free just one time could put him in the GPP winning conversation, though I’d call it low probability.

The Factor: Seahawks DST
The X-Factor: George Kittle


Seattle Seahawks Skewed Matchups of Note

Top 10 Pass TD Ratio Matchup
Top 10 20+ Yard Pass % Matchup
Bottom 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Bottom 10 Clean Pocket Matchup
Bottom 10 Blitz Pressure Matchup
Bottom 10 0-9 Yard Pass Success Matchup

Seattle has the edge here as big home favorites. San Francisco isn’t likely going to slow them down more than they slow themselves down.

If we had a crystal ball, the one thing we should want to know is who gets the rushing attempts for this team in Week 13. Chris Carson had 16 carries to Rashad Penny’s four last week against the Panthers. That’s what we want again this week with the Seahawks grinding out yards later in the game instead of staging a comeback via the air. San Francisco has actually been a stout rush defense though, and the combination of some uncertainty in usage and a below average matchup, will ultimately cause me to stay away here. We don’t have to chance it.

As much as this game looks to be favoring the Seahawks, and that I think the passing game will do well, I’m having a hard time seeing myself clicking the button on anyone on this huge slate. San Francisco does allow the second highest pass % in neutral situations at 62.86%, and it’s likely that the Hawks can just lineup Tyler Lockett opposite of Richard Sherman at some point and test Witherspoon deep. You can say the same for David Moore, and Doug Baldwin gets the best matchup of anyone in the slot with K’Waun Williams. When push comes to shove, I’m probably not using the Seahawks. If I was, I’d start with a Wilson plus Lockett stack.

The Factor: Tyler Lockett
The X-Factor: Russell Wilson

About the Author

  • Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

  • Chris Gimino is a top mind in the DFS industry and one of the primary contributors at RotoGrinders including one of the most accurate ownership projection systems in the industry. A multiple time live-finalist, Chris delivers actionable tools and advice for RotoGrinders Premium subscribers that helps them make informed decisions for their lineup builds.

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