Stat Factors: Week 13
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions
Los Angeles Rams Skewed Matchups of Note
Top 10 TD, Points, and Yards Per Drive Matchup
Top 10 Yards Before Contact Matchup
Top 10 RB and WR Target Success Matchup
Top 10 RB Bounce Rate Matchup
Top 10 QB Pressure Matchup
Top 10 Pass Success % Matchup
Top 10 Holding Calls Matchup
Top 10 Explosive Pass % Matchup
Top 10 Early Down Success % Matchup
Top 10 DVOA Matchup
Top 10 10-19 Yard Pass Success Matchup
The Rams are a top 3 team in the NFL and the Lions are… not. The status as 10 point favorites on the road is logical, and they have the edge in this matchup.
Evaluating Todd Gurley may be over complicated around the industry this week due to a 3-game stretch of underwhelming fantasy outputs. In between the 20’s, Gurley still maintains a role as primary ball carrier that benefits from few stacked boxes despite being a lethal threat. Just 16.2% of his runs come against a stacked box. He has the most red zone touches (63), 11th most targets, and 2nd most carries at the position. He is swimming in opportunity to generate fantasy points and the fact that the passing game matchup is strong only increases his viability under the assumption that the offense as a whole will be more efficient. Referencing a single player like Snacks Harrison as a reason to fade Gurley is foolish. The Lions have played a pathetic schedule of opposing runners and shutting down a fat(ish) Howard-led Bears run game two of the last three weeks is worth zero consideration. We should be looking at how horrible the Lions defended the pass catching backs (4th highest RB target rate at 25.8%), and begin salivating at the opportunity for a get right spot for fantasy footballs highest upside player on fantasy footballs highest upside team – playing indoors. He’s an exceptional DFS play that should be in high consideration in all formats as a core play.
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