Stat Factors: Week 2
NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you five key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you get a fast start to your week of research.
Week 2
Packers v. Vikings
Green Bay Packers
DVOA metrics (3rd overall, 2nd vs. run) and game charting data align to tell us that the Vikings could be who we thought they were on defense. Meanwhile, vs. a similarly annoying Vic Fangio defense, the Packers plodded away to the tune of Jamal Williams 15 carries for 47 yards. Expectations in this game should be that the passing game is the method of attack. The status of Aaron Rodgers would obviously change our outlook on effectiveness, but we can expect a heavy skew towards passing game volume given the Packers overall pass-first attack. The Vikings also tend to stop the run well and force opponents into the passing game.
One thing to note about Randall Cobb having a big game is that the Bears ran 72.09% man coverage types. It’s a mortal lock that the Vikings will not run that much man this weekend, and while that doesn’t for sure mean much of anything, it’s worth noting that the conditions will be different. It’s also worth mentioning the Vikings did skew towards man coverage types to a high degree in 2017, though in Week 1 they were below average. Passing game matchups aren’t really standing out for any individual WR, so I think any kind of bet on this situation at all is a bet on Aaron Rodgers. If forced to make a bet, don’t immediately assume Xavier Rhodes is a lock to shut down Adams. You’re already going off the board to acquire this stack, so you might as well go all the way and take the most talented WR.
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