Stat Factors: Week 3

NFL Advanced Data is more accessible than ever, and with the power of providers like Sports Info Solutions and PlayerProfiler.com, RotoGrinders is here to bring them to your doorstep. Each week, Stat Factors will compare 99 team level metrics and hundreds more advanced player level analytics to bring you five key “Stat Factors” that matter for each game. We’ll then break them down and teach you how to empower your decision making for the week using these factors. The best DFS players in the world supplement their process with sports analytics, and we’re here to help you enhance your week of research.

Note: “The Factor” is a player of prime interest for the slate, while the “X-Factor” is typically a less likely but equally interesting alternative.

Denver Broncos vs. Baltimore Ravens

Denver Broncos

The Broncos have an overall uptempo pace thus far this season with the 9th fastest situation-neutral pace. They haven’t resorted to using grinder Royce Freeman as their workhorse back, and have instead used Phil Lindsay as a major player in their rushing attack. The move has been successful. Now they face a Ravens team that has ranked 6th in overall DVOA, but is coming off a game in which they were worked over by Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. Emmanuel Sanders isn’t leading the team in volume, but he is the best performing DEN WR so far. He’ll line up in the slot away from Marlon Humphrey and Brandon Carr, which gives him the best overall matchup against Tavon Young. Young has been targeted against 11 times so far, and the matchup this week suggests he’ll be busy again.

The passing game seems like the better way to go overall, and if I am looking for more lightly owned stacking situations in a game with a razor-thin lean towards going over the total vs. under (if you made me choose one), I am going to go with Demaryius Thomas as the second WR to pair with Keenum. He was horribly inefficient a week ago but did see 11 targets.

It’s easy to peg Phillip Lindsay as a pass receiving back and yet so far he hasn’t been busy with just four targets. The Ravens have not allowed a ton of targets to go to RB’s as a percentage of action anyway. He may see more targets in the future, and it’s not impossible that happens this week. He is operating as the back of choice through two weeks, and that’s worth something. That being said, you’re not excited about using him quite as much this week as a road underdog. It’s probably better to let others have this one while you focus on either the passing game or other situations across the slate.

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About the Author

ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

Chris Gimino is a top mind in the industry and one of the primary contributors at RotoGrinders. Together with our team of experts, his work is powering projections, simulations, ownership, and analytics across 10+ sports for betting, DFS, and fantasy pick’em contests. A multiple-time Live Finalist and shipper of 6-figure wins, Chris delivers actionable tools and advice for RotoGrinders Premium subscribers. Follow Chris on Twitter – @ChrisGimino